Baseball Toaster Fairpole
Partisan Election Chat Dumping Ground
2008-11-04 09:14
by Ken Arneson

There's a Non-Partisan Election Chat over on Dodger Thoughts.  For those of you who cannot hold your tongue there, you can dump your thoughts here.  I'm posting it on Fairpole so that it stays on the "Hot from the Toaster" list for a while.

Be as partisan as you like on this thread.  Boo.  Cheer.  Argue.  But as always, my one Toaster-wide rule applies:  don't insult your fellow Toaster Posters, and if you do, apologize.

Comments (1139)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2008-11-04 09:24:45
1.   Humma Kavula
I would respectfully encourage all California residents to vote yes on Barack Obama and no on proposition 8.

I have many other opinions, too, but let's start with those.

2008-11-04 09:24:48
2.   Ken Arneson
I'm still waffling on 1A. Anyone care to talk me into/out of it before I go vote in half an hour or so?
2008-11-04 09:33:05
3.   Jon Weisman
2 - It's an investment in the future. It will be money well spent. Future generations will make good use of it. That's my take.
2008-11-04 09:34:18
4.   Humma Kavula
I agree with you, to a point, that the timing could be better for Prop 1A.

Here are the reasons I voted for it.

There's never a bad time to build infrastructure. Actually, it's my opinion that recession is the one time when it's a good thing for governments to run deficits.

Also, I feel that we do need a better way to get between our states' two largest cities. Gasoline is not going to be cheap forever. Air travel has also become expensive; it's also getting increasingly inconvenient, and barring a dramatic shift in how the TSA is run, I don't see a change there.

Rail seems like a good alternative.

2008-11-04 09:37:09
5.   ToyCannon
Al Franken US Senator - In the other thread many were making fun of celebrity's who dare to get involved in politics. For once instead of just becoming the Gov of California they are branching out. Go Al
2008-11-04 09:38:14
6.   Ken Arneson
4 Re: gasoline not being cheap forever. Does the environmental argument go away if everyone is driving electric cars in 15 years?
2008-11-04 09:43:31
7.   Humma Kavula
5 Minnesota has some history of electing famous, ridiculous figures to high office.

Weirdly, Franken is neither the most famous nor the most ridiculous among those.

And I might be crazy, but if I had to choose between Franken, Coleman, and Barkley, I would probably choose Franken, and I would be aware that unless he turns out to be the second coming of Paul Wellstone, he would probably lose in six years, and I'd be kinda OK with that.

2008-11-04 09:44:17
8.   ToyCannon
Only if they are using solar power to run the chargers. The question of battery disposal remains quite a problem. Good thing we have deep oceans.
2008-11-04 09:45:43
9.   Xeifrank
Al Franken, that's a scary one.
vr, Xei
2008-11-04 09:47:27
10.   Humma Kavula
6 I don't know. I would imagine that moving a bunch of people all at once would require less energy than moving the same number of people individually (or in pairs, whatever) in cars, but:

(a) I could be wrong, and
(b) even if I'm right, the difference might not be all that much.

In my opinion, I think the biggest argument AGAINST 1A is that this kind of spending should be worked out in the Legislature. They know a lot more about the long-term picture of the state than I do.

But we don't have that option. All we have is a yea or nay vote on the merits of high speed rail itself. That's gotta be good enough for me. YMMV.

2008-11-04 09:48:09
11.   ToyCannon
I like Al, I was not suggesting he was ridiculous.
2008-11-04 09:49:23
12.   Jim Hitchcock
9 That's kind of the beauty of it!
2008-11-04 09:52:23
13.   Humma Kavula
11 Fair enough.

I like him well enough and I think he's ridiculous.

I prefer representatives who dedicate their lives to public service. It's not the most important thing to me. But -- and I know A LOT of people disagree with me on this -- I think you become a better lawmaker when you start, say, on your school board, then rise to your city council, then state rep or congressman, then senator or governor... than if you're a businessman or celebrity who says, y'know, I have a lot of ideas.

2008-11-04 09:53:37
14.   ToyCannon
I will not be happy with a simple win today. When Pres Bush declared he had a mandate after "winning" in 2000, I want Obama to show Bush what a mandate of the voters actually looks like.
2008-11-04 09:56:40
15.   Humma Kavula
14 I thought he said that after 2004. But maybe I'm wrong.

Maybe that's when he said (paraphrasing), "The election gave me political capital and I intend to spend it."

2008-11-04 09:56:42
16.   ToyCannon
Is there any evidence that these lifers are better at the big stuff then those who skip the steps.
2008-11-04 10:00:45
17.   Jacob Burch
If Either TC or Kavula had held opposite views to these, I think I would have sulked all day. What a gamble checking this thread was. At least the results are rosy!

For some reason, my other favorite commentators could be more conservative and I don't think I mind. But I think I would have gotten in more bickering fights had I known there was any Yes on 8 thumping.

I'm sure it's like this all the time, but I've never had the "I like the idea of this bill. I hate the way it's written." feeling on so many Props before. The good of 1A allowed me to vote for it, but I'm still fencing Prop 2 (I likely will non-vote it), and will likely vote against 5,6,7,9,and 10 because of it.

But what's started to annoy me even more than staunch, incoherent, illogical partisanship on either side is the oft-youth-spun apathy. Just because the two party system is flawed doesn't mean there isn't mounds of difference to be made within it. I almost had a giant reply typed up to another's online journal, but remembered the last time I did that was to point out Ron Paul wasn't a liberal, and even a softball rebuttal like that wasn't made easily.

2008-11-04 10:01:01
18.   fanerman
I agree with 3 and 4 . It's also good for the company I work for =).
2008-11-04 10:01:28
19.   Jacob Burch
17 Maybe I shouldn't make soft/whiffleball-as-ease metaphors and I would have more success
2008-11-04 10:02:30
20.   Jim Hitchcock
14 I agree. It's been a long eight years waiting for it.
2008-11-04 10:07:43
21.   fanerman
17 I felt and voted the same way on 5, 6, 7, 9, and 10.
2008-11-04 10:07:55
22.   das411
14 , 20 , care to put any quantities on that? Something like 300 EV's or 55% of the popular vote?

/goes back to playing Political Machine!

2008-11-04 10:08:31
23.   Kuo-fax
4 I think you were saying this as well, but if not, another good reason for yes on 1A is that it would help create over 160,000 jobs over the next 10 years.
2008-11-04 10:11:26
24.   Kuo-fax
14 20 & 22 - Couldn't agree more! I'm thinking by mandate more of a democratic push in the Senate, as well as the office more than in electorals and popular vote.
2008-11-04 10:11:54
25.   BlueMamma
Well, I'm here to stump for yes on 4 votes. I have yet to see a convincing argument against it that is not based on an error (or a lie, but I'm willing to give people the benefit of the doubt).

As for Prop 8, I worry that I may get into legal trouble if it passes, so maybe I shouldn't get into any Prop 8 discussions here.

2008-11-04 10:13:44
26.   Humma Kavula
25 What do you mean, based on an error or a lie? Please explain.
2008-11-04 10:14:28
27.   Jim Hitchcock
Cross posted from DT:

BTW, a political blog that I've been reading for years, is Marc's a bit of an old lefty, but he takes on both sides of the political spectrum with equal fervor. Or glee. Whatever you want to call it.

And he could always use some fresh blood in the comments section.

Anyway, he's a great writer. He's just ending his afiliation with the L.A. Weekly (he used to be on KPCC quite a bit with his RadioNation show. Worth a look.

2008-11-04 10:15:33
28.   bhsportsguy
One of my favorite Al Franken bits was back during the down time of SNL when he pushed the Eighties as the Al Franken decade.
2008-11-04 10:17:27
29.   Jacob Burch
I'm pretty sure four is the tried and true battle between parent's protective rights and how far to limit the privacy rights of an non-emancipated minor. The provisions to this particular flavor seem tacked on and don't make it an overly different issue to me, but I'd gladly welcome any further instruct--I expect I won't agree, but there's nothing wrong with hearing the other side :-)
2008-11-04 10:18:28
30.   ToyCannon
I was quite delighted to find JoeyP a staunch conservative.

The prop I had the most problem with was prop 5. My initial inclination was to vote for it as I've always felt education was better then incarceration for non - violent criminals and the fact I don't believe in drug laws in the first place, but then Moonbeam told me to vote no, and that left me conflicted.

2008-11-04 10:21:15
31.   Kuo-fax
25 While communication with parents over something as serious as abortion is preferable, its the old problem of trying to legislate morality.

Some young women will seek out abortion no matter what the law says, which tend to be less regulated and safe (is this the lie part? Just curious what you meant by that).

Then there is always the cases of young girls who get pregnant from family members (incest). Not a pleasant thought, but it does happen.

2008-11-04 10:22:32
32.   D4P
When Pres Bush declared he had a mandate after "winning" in 2000

I thought Bush was opposed to man dates. In fact, isn't that largely why he got elected twice...?

2008-11-04 10:23:36
33.   Jacob Burch
30 I have an abundant dedication to criminal rights, the support of treatment, and overall overhaul of the criminal justice/punishment system. If I had the magical knowledge and power to really shake up things, I think it would probably be #2 on my hot list of things to work on state-wide (education being #1). But from everything I've read, it's just a shoddily written bill that wouldn't really help enough to justify it. It made me very sad, as I was chomping at the bit to vote yes on something of its nature.
2008-11-04 10:24:57
34.   Jacob Burch
And the only thing I'll say on JoeyP is that someone needs to look into taking down "his" (I have to hope) fake youtube account. I shall put this in a different comment here in hopes Ken or Jon and their magical powers can start yelling at YouTube. It's juvenile in the strongest order, and if someone wanted to delete this comment to avoid anyone even finding it, so be it.
2008-11-04 10:25:27
35.   Icaros

And then in the 90s it was the decade of his son, Joe Franken.

2008-11-04 10:25:41
36.   KG16
2 - the best argument against 1A (and really all the bond measures) is that California's fiscal fiasco is due in large part to our constant ballot box budgeting. A large portion of California's budget is dictated by bond measures that passed years ago - we end up paying a lot more in interest than we would have otherwise. I wish I had the numbers, but I can't get the Google pointed in the right direction.
2008-11-04 10:26:32
37.   Andrew Shimmin
25- Didn't you see the commercials? It's important to vote against it because even though you're a good mother, every other parent in this state is not to be trusted.

You have "think outside your bubble." That's my favorite line from a political ad this year. I really, really dig it. I'm going to get myself punched in the snoot, probably sometime soon, over using it so much. But it's worth it.

2008-11-04 10:28:58
38.   KG16
I ended up voting Yes on 5, but that's just because it feels like a step closer to legalization. So, I guess this is where I out myself as the libertarian of the group?
2008-11-04 10:30:40
39.   Jacob Burch
38 That was the closest thing that had me voting yes on 2 and 5--it was a step in the right direction. But overall (at least with 5) it wasn't enough to be ok with voting for it.

I think I'll probably end up non-voting Prop 2.

2008-11-04 10:31:15
40.   KG16
25 - I think I went No on 4. Generally, parental notification is a good thing, and I think the judicial review process is fine, but ultimately, I think about some girls that I use to know and what would have happened if they got pregnant at 16. Girls that don't talk to the parents about their choice are probably doing so for good reason.

Also, when in doubt, I vote no.

2008-11-04 10:32:05
41.   Andrew Shimmin
The best argument against 1A is that we're all going to be driving zero emission flying cars by 2010. That's what I'm expecting, anyway.

Plus, I would never bet on a public transit system to beat Southwest. I'm flying up to San Jose in a couple of weeks. The ticket cost $160, and the trip will take an hour and half. What are the chances rail is going to be competitive with that? I hate the TSA as much as any ten men, but not enough to pay more to go to the same place, slower. Unless they introduce smoking cars. I'm betting they won't.

How did nobody run against the TSA this year?

2008-11-04 10:32:19
42.   KG16
i think i just realized that i am going to accomplish nothing at work today.
2008-11-04 10:32:47
43.   Ghost of Carlos Perez
I don't live in CA, so I'm a bit jealous of all these extra things you get to vote for.

I'm still not sure on how to think about Proposition 8. Is it really just the concept of marriage that is at stake, or are there actual rights involved?

2008-11-04 10:33:30
44.   ToyCannon
I ended up doing what I usually do and voted no on all the prop's except 2. I is easy to make fun of such a prop but if most people here had visited a commercial egg/chicken farm they would probably vomit. Upton Sinclair lives on.
2008-11-04 10:34:19
45.   KG16
I hate the TSA as much as any ten men

Just ten men? You've obviously not flown out of Phoenix lately.

Believe me, if/when I ever run for office, TSA and DHS will be squarely in the firing line.

2008-11-04 10:35:22
46.   Andrew Shimmin
Does anybody vote for judges? How do you pick them? One time a guy on the ballot was under indictment for kiddy porn, so I actually did vote against him. But I've never heard of the rest, and don't see the point of my voting on them.
2008-11-04 10:36:47
47.   El Lay Dave
When it comes to ballot propositions, my starting position is to vote the straight curmudgeon ticket - "no" on everything, then see if the proposition itself can convince me to vote "yes". Once I start looking at the texts of the proposed laws, I am, to steal a metaphor, seeing far too much of the sausage factory. I also constantly find it infuriating that we continually are floating bond propositions and measures to pay for things that ought to be among the primary items our already collected tax dollars should be paying for first: police, fire, transportation infrastructure, education.

As the father of a now-adult daughter, I find the weird dichotomy of parental consent for juvenile medical issues is strange indeed. Whatever else I might think of Proposition 4, 48 hours seems awfully arbitrary for the waiting period and should that prop pass, I expect that to be a significant part of the legal challenge.

Proposition 8 is an abomination.

14 After the last two presidential elections, I may be willing to settle merely for a clear win featuring a non-controversial margin.

2008-11-04 10:37:38
48.   ToyCannon
For 45 years I've been waiting to travel via the jet backpack. They are probably waiting until they have put all the phone/power lines underground.
2008-11-04 10:37:56
49.   Jacob Burch
44 When the two no votes for 12 and 11 are counted, I'll know!

(Kidding, kidding).

I actually have seen much of the farm ways--and I'd love to get progressive in reforming them--but "Five years and you guys gotta fix it" just seems like a poorly constructed way to do it.

43 There's a lot of icky "we don't know yet" here. Right away, no 'rights' would be lost but the naming convention--but it was the same philosophy behind "separate but equal," and could lead towards city and further state legislation that would differentiate rights (ease of adoption comes to mind as one that would hit the political hot stove quickly).

2008-11-04 10:38:48
50.   KG16
46 - I vote for judges. The trick is finding out where the new judge will be going (limited or unlimited, criminal or civil). I tend to vote for either DA's or for attorneys who are also businessmen (they tend to understand the complex cases better).

You can usually look the candidates up on the state bar's website to find out where they work, how long they've been in practice, and if they have any disciplinary actions against them (

Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2008-11-04 10:39:48
51.   fanerman
48 Just make sure you always have gum to seal any potential holes that might get created in the thing.
2008-11-04 10:40:37
52.   fanerman
46 50 This is something I've been unsure of. I visit a few websites but it's hard to tell one from the other based purely on their platform.
2008-11-04 10:41:32
53.   Jacob Burch
47 Yay another favorite commenter with agreeable political thought. This is better than Christmas.

I absolutely agree with your first part (although Prop 6 this year seems really, really poorly written and not the standard "Give more money to police" bill), and is why I begrudgerlly am voting yes on 1A and 3. It really angers me that my tax money (which I wouldn't mind if it would get raised for these things) isn't already going to them, along with education, which is curiously missing a statewide bill this year. A big city wide bill, but I believe it's paid with a broad tax hike, which I'm much happier to do than a bond measure.

2008-11-04 10:43:15
54.   KG16
52 - it's in large part because there are ethical restrictions on what you can say when running for a judgeship. I've yet to come across anyone I've worked on a case with running, but I suspect it will happen some day if I stay in the practice long enough. You can usually get a decent idea of what kind of lawyer they are based on their resumes (where they went to law school, what firms they've worked for, if they clerked for a judge).
2008-11-04 10:47:11
55.   Marty
Go Obama! Down with 8! I'm a tax and spend liberal and am so happy to see the end of this horrible administration.

OK, that's out of the way. How did people in LA county vote on Measure R, the 1/2 cent sales tax for metro rail? I voted for it even though it gets us close to a 10% sales tax rate in the county.

2008-11-04 10:49:16
56.   Jacob Burch
Made me (needfully) laugh:
2008-11-04 10:50:51
57.   D4P
If a president has fewer than 60 of his/her party members in the Senate, how much of said president's objectives can we reasonably expect said president to acccomplish?
2008-11-04 10:52:41
58.   Ken Arneson
36 Yeah, that's my big issue with 1A. If I were satisfied, as I am with Prop 12, that this thing would pay for itself in the long run, I'd be OK with it.

But the official "Fiscal Effect" says "Depending on the level of ridership, these costs would be at least partially, and potentially fully, offset by revenue from fares paid by passengers."

So it might pay for itself (costs estimated at about $1B/year), but it might not. If it doesn't, then we've just cut even more money from our schools, because that's even more money coming out of the state budget.

I don't know what the risk of that happening is, and what percentage of that $1B is likely to be needed to be subsidized. What's the best case/worst case/most likely case?

2008-11-04 10:53:35
59.   Marty
Nate Silver at 538 has a final projection of Obama 349 McCain 189 in electoral votes.
2008-11-04 10:54:55
60.   KG16
57 - many presidents in the past have gotten many of his objectives passed with far less than 60 votes. the key is peeling off the necessary votes from the other side to get cloture (which is an end to the debate in the Senate, closing off the ability to filibuster). There are other things you can do, too, if you're the majority party with less than 60, like make the minority do a real filibuster instead of the 20 minute thing they do now - I'm talking leave-the-lights-on-all-night-reading-war-and-peace filibustering.

Of course, running the Senate is a lot like herding cats, as more than one Senate leader has said over the years.

2008-11-04 10:56:22
61.   Ghost of Carlos Perez
If I personally believe marriage is between a man and a woman, but I don't think the government should impose that belief on others, how should I vote on Proposition 8?

Also, my impression (not necessarily from anyone here) is that proponents of 8 are viewed as being hateful. Is that due to their belief on marriage, or because they are trying to impose their belief on others?

2008-11-04 10:57:40
62.   KG16
58 - best case is that it pays for itself and actually runs a surplus that can go to other projects. worst case is that it costs more to build than previously though, no one uses it, and it becomes a black hole on the budget that requires California to file for bankruptcy. most likely, it's somewhere in between, probably costs a bit more than we thought and ends up running a slight deficit.
2008-11-04 10:58:14
63.   Jacob Burch
55 With Bob, Jon, sortofBH and the Erics excepting (and we may not see them), almost all my favorites have now been covered (Molly have been long revealed as a rule 5 skirter). I'm smitten with this outcome.

58 Given all the city support it has, I have to imagine the most likely case is it gets built, pays itself back, but later than (with higher ticket prices) than estimate. There's always the risk, but I'm such a dork for public transportation that it's one I'm willing to take.

But if the ticket prices went up by 50%, it would still beat most of South West's fares. And with security and getting to the airport added in, would probably be quicker.

2008-11-04 10:59:42
64.   njr
I, too, am feeling considerable relief knowing that so many of you whose comments I read every day are like minded politically. I live in Los Feliz and there have been some deeply disheartening things going on there involving some "no on prop 8" bumperstickers and people tagging over them. Never thought I would see it in California.

I will be voting after work and would appreciate any input anyone has on the different Measures. Otherwise I'm voting yes on 2 (step in the right direction) and maybe yes on 3 and no on everything else.

2008-11-04 11:03:08
65.   Jim Hitchcock
In the end, I just wish one of the candidates would have quoted Pat Paulsen, who said "I've upped my standards, so up yours".
2008-11-04 11:03:26
66.   Jacob Burch
61 It's probably because they have met someone at some point who forced the belief down them, yes. It's still not a blanket assumption (like almost all blanket assumptions) that should be taken by a logical thinker.

A No vote would be the way to go, and you'd just have to be open to the idea (which already exists) what constitutes a marriage to you is not the same to others, and you'll be sharing the word. You wouldn't blink at two athiests using the same word as two born-agains.

The biggest fear (outside of the almost-absolutely-certainly-fallacious idea that gay parents can't rear socially correct children as well as straight parents) seems to be that churches could lose tax-exempt status or even be sued for denying a gay couple to marry, but it doesn't have much at all legal precedence. There was a case in New Jersey that gets toited out, but is usually horribly mis-construed when retold.

As far as "they'll teach it to my kids," my double response is it isn't such a bad idea to teach children about tolerance, but if California Education Code does mandate community approval for anything taught in local schools.

2008-11-04 11:04:09
67.   Ken Arneson
62 That's a pretty wide range of outcomes, which is making it hard for me to vote yes, even though I want to.

The "No" side missed an opportunity to spell out those risks in the "Arguments against" section.

I've been reading the text of the actual proposal, and it does have plenty of taxpayer protections built in, so maybe I'll vote yes and pray for the best.

2008-11-04 11:04:29
68.   fanerman
59 That's just average number of electoral votes (from many simulations), I think. The right column gives the most likely number of electoral votes Obama/McCain will get. It looks like the most likely outcomes are 311, 353, and 364 electoral votes for Obama.
2008-11-04 11:05:04
69.   Jacob Burch
64 It won't matter, but a yes on 12 vote is pretty safe. It's self-sufficient, and is basically an extension of 25 or 26 other bills that CA has already overwhelmingly passed. It's basically just an extension to cover veterans that served after (I think?) 2005.
2008-11-04 11:05:27
70.   Andrew Shimmin
61- The ballot initiative only covers civil marriage. If you don't think the government should prohibit same sex civil marriage, you should vote against prop 8.
2008-11-04 11:07:25
71.   mwhite06
61 Take the libertarian approach. Why does government need to be involved in what is essentially a contract between two adults?
2008-11-04 11:11:00
72.   mwhite06
We have dealt with 1A on this board, anyone want to voice an opinion on Measure R? (LA County Only.) Personally, I am a big mass transit advocate, but the idea of raising the sales tax makes me nervous-- not because of paying additional sales tax, but I worry in five years we will still be paying the tax, but the County will find other places to spend that revenue.
2008-11-04 11:12:15
73.   Ghost of Carlos Perez
One of the things that intrigues me about Proposition 8 is the involvement of LDS church members, given the LDS church's history with polygamy.

Hypothetically, do you think the outcome of this vote would be different if the issue were about plural marriage instead of same-sex marriage?

2008-11-04 11:13:33
74.   Jacob Burch
72 I'll be voting yes, and trust that if the tax does get over-used without due cause, that a conservative check will come in to lower it not too much there after. Bug again, as noted, I'm a transit freak and will almost always sign off on bills to support it.
2008-11-04 11:13:50
75.   Andrew Shimmin
I wanted to vote yes on R just because it was the only one that ended with a question mark. But then I didn't, because I'd rather not have a higher sales tax.

It's not just five years, by the way; the tax would be in effect for thirty years.

2008-11-04 11:14:11
76.   Ghost of Carlos Perez
71 Actually, I align with the libertarian party on most issues. I voted for McCain, but had I not lived in a swing state I would have voted for Barr.
2008-11-04 11:16:38
77.   Jacob Burch
73 When you add more than one party to the contract, it's a different civil contract. There are possible exploitations of sharing civil rights designed for exclusive trust amongst two people among more than two. That (and polygamy has never had mass cultural acceptance) would lead to the bill not even getting on the slate.

LDS also, with some conservative sects excepting, do not support polygamy anymore.

2008-11-04 11:17:06
78.   Andrew Shimmin
73- I bet the LDS is even more opposed to plural marriage than most other groups, specifically because of the history, and because they take so much crap about it and the splinter groups that still practice it.

I didn't know LDS was involved with prop 8 until I got a call (a pretend poll) from a no on 8 group asking me if knowing that they were made me more or less likely to vote for it.

2008-11-04 11:18:32
79.   Jacob Burch
78 I was going to add "and get very peeved when asked about it," but got lazy.
2008-11-04 11:19:28
80.   Andrew Shimmin
I think I should say that I voted against 8. I haven't yet, and since all the cool kids are doing it. . .
2008-11-04 11:19:29
81.   mwhite06
77 One could argue that polygamy has had more cultural acceptance (throughout history) than homosexuality.
2008-11-04 11:22:40
82.   Jacob Burch
81 Modern American cultural acceptance is what I meant (as it referred to the likely hood of such a measure actually existing).
2008-11-04 11:23:00
83.   Ghost of Carlos Perez
77 I guess what I'm wondering, if "rights" are not at issue here, just the concept of marriage (that's my impression of Proposition 8--this issue gets even more complicated when things like tax breaks, adoption rights, etc. are involved), should a lack of cultural acceptance be a basis for not allowing plural marriage?
2008-11-04 11:27:41
84.   Jacob Burch
83 But you can't mix the two. In plural marriage, rights, at the heart of it, would be at hand. If they weren't, then yes, I'd sign off on whatever open/multiple relationship you want to call marriage and allow you to do so, I suppose. Realistically, it would have a much, much less likely chance of passing, but from my mind there's nothing wrong with someone thinking they function best in a multiple marriage, and letting them call it whatever they want.

But civil rights are central to such an idea, so it's sort of a fluffy thing to argue about.

2008-11-04 11:37:52
85.   BlueMamma
25 That ad is the lie: there is a provision in prop 4 that allows a minor girl to inform a different adult family member if she is afraid of her parents.

The deal with prop 4 is this - as the law stands now, an older adult male can get a teenage girl pregnant, take her into an abortion clinic, cover his tracks, and continue abusing her, without the knowledge of her parents or the authorities. The girl can die from complications because she hasn't told anyone her condition. The kind of sexual and moral enslavement that current law protects is insurmountable for an underconfident teenage girl.

Prop 4 would save lives, both literally (i.e. save girls from death from complications to a condition no one close to her knows about) and figuratively (i.e. bringing a dangerous state of affairs to light so that others can help the girl straighten out her life).

2008-11-04 11:39:16
86.   BlueMamma
My opinion on prop 8: Why is the state concerned with marriage at all? Why not simply have the law sanction unions by granting everyone the same rights, same sex or not, and then get out of the marriage business altogether?
2008-11-04 11:41:50
87.   BlueMamma
One further thought on prop 4 - it's not a parental consent law, it's a parental notification law. Totally different.
2008-11-04 11:43:26
88.   Andrew Shimmin
Assuming the Democrats don't get sixty, does Lieberman get bounced out of the caucus? Are they going to strip his committee chairmanship? He's on stage with McCain in Colorado, right now.
2008-11-04 11:46:25
89.   BlueMamma
40 "Girls that don't talk to the parents about their choice are probably doing so for good reason."

Yeah - they're kids, and they're scared. They don't know how their parents will take it. They don't understand the implications. Just like a kid will say "I don't know" when asked who scribbled on the wall because they fear punishment, a teenage girl in deep water will not want her parents to know. In fact, the tantalizing nature of the "no one will know" aspect may push a girl into having an abortion she will later deeply regret.

2008-11-04 11:47:03
90.   El Lay Dave
53 Thank you. I actually consider myself neither liberal, nor conservation, nor libertarian, nor-- or is it part all those things?

55 I voted no on R, mostly due to my general hatred of the general sales tax.

2008-11-04 11:54:52
91.   Bob Timmermann
I have come out against sinus congestion. In particular, sinus congestion in my head. It is making it hard for me to hear out of my right ear.

If a candidate can give me something to clear that up, s/he has my vote.

Except I already voted, so I'll just try decongestants.

2008-11-04 11:55:41
92.   Bill Crain
Well, this is all just horrifying.

The policies of one side are founded in superstition. The policies of the other side are based on theft. You're expected to choose between ignorant and evil.

Yet both sides agree on the great value of economic inefficiency enforced by arbitrary violence.

If your analysis of public policy is premised on the ideal of individual freedom, there is no place for you in the public debate. Arguing the merits of any of the current proposed expansions of public debt seems akin to fighting over a single umbrella after you've both jumped out of the airplane.

I'm therefore sorry to say that I have really nothing useful to contribute here. For now, anyway. Maybe someday.

2008-11-04 11:57:17
93.   Bill Crain
Not you, Bob. You, you're okay.
2008-11-04 11:57:51
94.   Jim Hitchcock
91 Bob is feeling very sleepy...
2008-11-04 12:03:14
95.   Andrew Shimmin
I don't think it's fair to say the violence is arbitrary.
2008-11-04 12:04:54
96.   Eric Enders
So, those of you who actually live in California, is the ability to get just about any proposition on the ballot in CA generally a good thing or a bad thing? It seems like a lot of the time it gives hate groups an opportunity to create divisiveness (Prop 8, Prop 187), but I can see how other propositions might benefit the greater good.

Just wondering if you guys consider always having to vote on various propositions annoying or empowering.

2008-11-04 12:05:12
97.   Bob Timmermann
For the record, I vote against ballot measures that come up because of the initiative process.

Democracy was not designed to work by having somebody sign a piece of paper on a clipboard outside of Target that they were too lazy to read.

2008-11-04 12:06:17
98.   Bob Timmermann
I posted 97 as Eric posted 96 . I think Eric can figure out my answer.
2008-11-04 12:11:03
99.   Sam DC
I took my boys out to the Lincoln Memorial this weekend to talk some Sentators from Illinois and I Have a Dream and whatnot. Lots of people had the same idea. It was pretty incredible.

Can't say my 8 year old necessarily enjoyed being forced to participate in a group reading of the Gettysburg Address, but someday, you know, when he's old and I'm dead, I'm hoping he'll appreciate the gesture.

What? Nobody said this was a non-schmaltzy thread . . .

2008-11-04 12:12:48
100.   Ken Arneson
91 Similarly, I oppose back injuries. The only reason I'm hanging around Toaster today (been too busy lately otherwise) is that I threw out my back on Sunday playing with the kids, and am mostly immobile. It was quite a chore walking the two blocks to my voting place today, just returned.
Show/Hide Comments 101-150
2008-11-04 12:13:40
101.   Andrew Shimmin
96- It seems unlikely that the reason people care about same sex marriage is that a Hate Group got prop 8 on the ballot.
2008-11-04 12:15:09
102.   Physics DR
I always vote for the railroads.

However, a high-speed train in California is one project that will take longer to build then the LHC project that I have worked for 20 years.

2008-11-04 12:15:37
103.   ToyCannon
I like it but I almost always vote against them. Someday something important will happen that the legislature will be not be able to deal with and it will come in handy.
2008-11-04 12:18:25
104.   Ken Arneson
96 I like the initiative process in theory, but in practice it is too easy to get crap on the ballot. As I said in the other thread, I hate that the state constitution can be changed by just a 50% vote--constitutions should be much more stable documents. It's also too easy for the legislature to cop out on difficult questions and just pass it on to the voters, so to avoid giving their political opponents any issues to run against them on.
2008-11-04 12:21:27
105.   Bob Timmermann
As former L.A. Mayor Norris Poulson said once, "Californians would sign a petition to outlaw orange juice."

In 1964, Californians went to the polls with a referendum (which they don't do often) to reverse the Rumsford Act which banned racial segregation in housing. Basically Californians voted to put racial covenants back into deeds.

In the 1950s, the state had an initiative to cancel all public housing contracts it had signed with the Federal government. The California Supreme Court declared it unenforceable BEFORE the election and it still went on the ballot. And it still prevailed.

And was never enforced.

2008-11-04 12:21:56
106.   Andrew Shimmin
If turnout is as big as everybody expects, it'll be a lot harder to get an initiative on the next ballot.
2008-11-04 12:27:59
107.   Physics DR
I have been in this electoral vote pool for 28 years now among friends of all beliefs. Mainly American History junkies.


Obama wins the electoral vote 364-174. Carries all the usual democratic states plus Minn, Iowa, Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Florida, Penn, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida.

Just a pool and some money down on the outcome.

Anybody else into the political numbers detail as much as we are?

2008-11-04 12:32:22
108.   mwhite06
107 Not to nit pick but how is Minnesota not considered a usual democratic state? It has voted for a Democratic president in every election since 1976 (longest in the US.)
2008-11-04 12:34:24
109.   D4P
Hard to believe that Obama is even competitive in MO, IN, and NC.
2008-11-04 12:35:51
110.   Eric Enders
107 I'm giving Obama those states plus Georgia, Indiana, and Nebraska's second district. Final margin 391-147.

What can I say, I'm an optimist at heart.

2008-11-04 12:37:11
111.   Andrew Shimmin
I think the margin will be whatever Pomeroy says it will be. Do I win another t-shirt?
2008-11-04 12:37:23
112.   Eric Enders
108 Minnesota's elected quite a few Republican governors and senators lately.
2008-11-04 12:39:45
113.   Xeifrank
I know the Polygamists out there won't be too happy with me, but I voted YES on Measure 8 last week. I believe that marriage is between 1-man and 1-woman.
vr, Xei
2008-11-04 12:40:24
114.   fanerman
110 How many wins did you predict the Dodgers would have last season?
2008-11-04 12:40:49
115.   Andrew Shimmin
Pawlenty only won because of the unfair persecution of Jonathon Sharkey.
2008-11-04 12:43:03
116.   Eric Enders
114 A lot more than they ended up with. 93, if I recall.

I'm blaming Nate Silver on both counts if I'm wrong. He had the Dodgers winning the west with 87 wins and he's the one who convinced me Georgia is viable.

2008-11-04 12:44:40
117.   blue22
116 - I had 376 (your total, minus GA) yesterday, but this from 538 pushed me into believing GA is in play:

1,994,990 people voted early in Georgia. 3,301,875 total voted in Georgia's presidential race in 2004.

2008-11-04 12:47:18
118.   Andrew Shimmin
Silver gives Georgia a 90% chance of staying red.
2008-11-04 12:49:23
119.   blue22
118 - He's not banking the early votes in that number though, I don't believe. Those figures are all polling.
2008-11-04 12:49:23
120.   Eric Enders
118 His numbers give Georgia a 90% chance of staying red, but his articles have pointed out several reasons why his statistical methodology might be wanting in the specific case of GA.
2008-11-04 12:49:52
121.   Physics DR

Minnesota has moved closer to the Republican Party in the last elections.

The state has gotten older and the influence of Labor side of Democratic party was dropped in the last few elections. Plus the Democratic party has picked poor candidates since Hubert, Eugene, Mondale, etc.

2008-11-04 12:54:01
122.   mwhite06
121 Fair enough. I never personally thought Minnesota was in play, but since you mentioned it, I looked up some polls and found one (an outlier I am assuming but a poll nonetheless) which was taken 10/30 through 11/1 and had Obama at 49 and Mccain 46. On the other hand, Intrade has the odds at Minnesota staying blue at 98%.
2008-11-04 12:54:44
123.   ToyCannon
California is a donkey state and yet we have elected our good share of elephants to run our state.

Nate is going to be one wealthy BP writer after this election if he can sign up Boras as his agent to handle his speaking fee's, and he hires Mr. Shimmin to do the actual appearances.

2008-11-04 12:56:53
124.   Eric Enders
I tend to think of Minnesota as a blue state, but unpredictable enough that you can't count on it to be reliably blue. I mean, if you ran a Cabbage Patch Doll for statewide office there it would probably win.
2008-11-04 12:58:13
125.   El Lay Dave
121 "Whatever became of Hubert? Has anyone heard a thing?"

When Minnesota elected Ventura governor, one of the defeated candidates was named Humphrey.

2008-11-04 12:59:58
126.   ToyCannon
The early vote numbers in this election have just been tremendous. We won't be able to make fun of our apathetic electorate for at least two years.
2008-11-04 13:00:18
127.   El Lay Dave
124 Sure, a Cabbage Patch Doll would make less bad decisions don'tcha know?
2008-11-04 13:05:11
128.   Physics DR
124 122 They did not get much play in the media however the Upper Midwest states have been in play since the 80's. Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.

Farmers are not strong Republicans. However small cities are very solid republicans. larger cities ans college towns go Democratic.

2008-11-04 13:05:38
129.   Eric Enders
127 Which one of these looks like the more sober decision maker?

2008-11-04 13:07:13
130.   ToyCannon
Is this a faith based concept?
2008-11-04 13:08:28
131.   Andrew Shimmin
Is there reason to suspect that the surge in early voting is organic growth in overall voting and not just a redistribution of voting method in reaction to the annual inability of election officials to organize on site balloting in many districts in a way that works? How many times would you have to wait in the line before you decided not to do that, any more?
2008-11-04 13:10:42
132.   Physics DR
Hubert Humphrey was one of my heroes when I was growing up.

Just think, if the Peace side of the Democratic party had voted in the close election of 1968 instead of staying home how different we would be today. (in other words Nixon loses)

2008-11-04 13:15:11
133.   ToyCannon
Which station do you all plan to watch tonight for the results? I'm leaning toward the Comedy Channel or CNN but it may end up being KCET when I get tired of all the talking heads.

My first big memory of TV was moving from Germany to Virginia just in time to watch the 68 election results on TV. We hadn't watched any TV for 3 years. I remember being fascinated by the whole thing and thinking Hubert sure had a big ole forehead.

2008-11-04 13:18:35
134.   Bob Timmermann
I'm taking the decongestants when I get home, I'll likely be watching the results with my subconscious.
2008-11-04 13:21:34
135.   Physics DR

I wonder about Indiana, Georgia, West Virginia, and North Dakota.

Forgot about the changes in Nebraska. Good call.

2008-11-04 13:21:46
136.   Sam DC
Are you not feeling well, Bob?
2008-11-04 13:22:43
137.   Bob Timmermann
I was thinking of buying a billboard to advertise this too.
2008-11-04 13:22:56
138.   Eric Enders
My father has been voting for president since 1968 and this year for the first time in his life he voted for a winning candidate.

Or so he claims. I've been unable to figure out who he could have voted for in 1992. He swears he didn't vote for Clinton and there's no way he would have voted for the other two.

1968 Humphrey
1972 McGovern
1976 McCarthy
1980 Anderson
1984 Mondale
1988 Dukakis
1992 ?
1996 Nader
2000 Nader
2004 Kerry

I've never voted for a winning candidate either but this is only my fourth election.

2008-11-04 13:24:21
139.   Marty
I'm going to an election party where there will be three screens. I don't know if I'll make it in time for the Stewart/Colbert special.

Oh, and I absolutely hate the initiative process. But I did vote yes for 1A and R, so I'm a hypocrite.

2008-11-04 13:24:50
140.   D4P
It's too bad folks like Nader can't get a legitimate shot at competing with the Ds and Rs.
2008-11-04 13:25:09
141.   Jacob Burch
90 What you wrote had enough body to show thorough, well thought political thinking--this is all that delighted me (the brief sentence on 8 didn't hurt). While it helps to talk with people with mostly like minded views, it's not that necessary for me to feel at ease, with a few key issues excepting.

And back on 4, BlueMomma--it certainly is a hard issue. We restrict minors from a lot of things because we assume they don't have a clear enough head to make the proper call--but abortion does seem to be such a unique and special case. The problem with it is that it also overrides underaged privacy rights for the sake of telling only an adult family member (I seem to recall remembering notifying anyone but your parents requires a cry of abuse, but I could very well be wrong on that). I just know too many people who, with the law enacted, would have an equal amount of births they didn't want as a non-pass would produce abortions they later regret. It's by no means a cut-and-dry case, but I think it does ultimately step on the case of forcing morality and doesn't solve enough wrong to justify it.

There is undoubtedly cases where such a law would help prevent harm, but there has to be a line, and I don't think 4 does enough.

That was more rambly than I liked it, but I sort of am interested in recalling the argument in this rare case of rule 5 violations--you all mostly seem like such level headed people, I'd like to be told more--both with my feeling and the dissent.

2008-11-04 13:25:09
142.   Ken Arneson
133 I tend to watch in HD if all things are equal, and I don't get any of the news networks like CNN in HD, so I'll probably just watch one of the major networks.
2008-11-04 13:25:26
143.   Xeifrank
133. I won't be watching results on the TV at all. I may check online once in a while to see how some local school measures that I am interested in did, but that's it. If the TV is on, it will most likely be a Science Kids or Barney rerun. vr, Xei
2008-11-04 13:25:42
144.   Bob Timmermann
My father never would say exactly who he voted for, but he also said he voted for the winner in every presidential election from the time he was old enough to vote (1952).

He was a Rockefeller Republican. If he were alive, he would have voted for McCain though.

2008-11-04 13:26:11
145.   Eric Enders
133 I'm definitely watching Comedy Central but that's only an hour and I don't necessarily feel the need to watch it live.

I usually go with CNN although I'll probably try to watch some HDNET, where Dan Rather is doing the returns and Nate Silver will be on-camera as an analyst.

2008-11-04 13:26:18
146.   Marty
My mom was a big Humphrey fan. By the time she died, she was practically a communist she was so far left. Why she married a conservative Marine is beyond me.
2008-11-04 13:28:36
147.   Jacob Burch
141 Ballotpedia confirms my fourth-party hearing that another adult would only come at a cry of abuse.
2008-11-04 13:29:06
148.   El Lay Dave
142 For watching a bunch of talking heads, the softer focus of standard definition may be preferable. Unless I feel like counting Charles Gibson's wrinkles.
2008-11-04 13:30:55
149.   das411
138 , you mean "winning" in the sense of "ahead in the polls on Election Day", not the "I know something everybody else doesn't" sense, right?
2008-11-04 13:31:25
150.   El Lay Dave
146 Opposites attract. And you are thankful for that!
Show/Hide Comments 151-200
2008-11-04 13:31:39
151.   ToyCannon
I think the 2nd Bill Clinton election is the only time I voted for a winning candidate.
2008-11-04 13:32:22
152.   Eric Enders
149 Yeah ;)
2008-11-04 13:32:56
153.   D4P
My father accused Obama of being a terrorist, months before it became trendy to do so.
2008-11-04 13:33:20
154.   Physics DR

Also a Nelson Rockefeller fan.

As a Vietnam veteran I wanted an excuse to vote for McCain. However I never got one. Colin Powell made it very clear about how I should vote.

2008-11-04 13:34:24
155.   Jacob Burch
Having extreme difficulty with a lot of moving during the 06 and primary elections, this is only my second vote (04 being the first at the ripe age of 18). Hoping that my living situation will be less volatile and that this non-voting thing never happens again.
2008-11-04 13:38:01
156.   ToyCannon
As bad as the attacks have been from the Republican side I'm very impressed that a black man with the name of Obama is going to kick electoral ass tonight in the year 2008. As disgusted as I was with electorate in 2000 and 2004, I'm just as proud today. Lots of old prejudices had to be overcome this year and based on the polling it looks like it happened. Granted it took 8 years of bad decision making to make it happen but it is going to happen.
2008-11-04 13:40:37
157.   El Lay Dave
133 I remember watching bits of that election also, though I was not quite eight years old. I can recall seeing THREE different candidates winning states; that's something we won't see tonight.
2008-11-04 13:42:10
158.   Xeifrank
156. Niether side can claim the higher ground on personal attacks, dirty politics or whatever naming convention you want to call it. I think you could've left that part out of your post and I would've respected what you said a little more. But I agree that breaking the colour barrier is a good thing, even if I don't like the candidate. :)
vr, Xei
2008-11-04 13:42:58
159.   Physics DR
Agree. I hope you are right about the belief structure.

However the last six years have been so bad if would be hard for Obama or anybody else to lose.

2008-11-04 13:43:38
160.   Eric Enders
156 It does seem that Obama has had extremely good timing. I wonder what the results would have looked like if (a) the economy hadn't gone in the crapper, (b) he hadn't been following the worst president in history, and (c) McCain had remained the honorable, honest McCain from 2000.

In other words, I'm not sure we should be patting ourselves on the back too much and declaring racism dead, because you could argue that this election result owes much more to the cosmic alignment of external factors than it does to Obama himself.

2008-11-04 13:43:55
161.   El Lay Dave
138 , 156 Some fanerman-equivalent's knuckles are seriously hemorrhaging.
2008-11-04 13:44:00
162.   Jim Hitchcock
156 What TC said. Again.
2008-11-04 13:44:01
163.   Andrew Shimmin
2008-11-04 13:49:34
164.   Andrew Shimmin
That lefties liked McCain better when he was running against Bush than when he was running against Obama is not necessarily a reliable indication that McCain changed. Any more than it is that righties liked Obama better when he was running against Clinton.
2008-11-04 13:51:01
165.   ToyCannon
No patting on the back. Just impressed it happened. 2000 McCain had a chance, 72 year old 2008 McCain did not, especially after he picked Palin. All he did was solidify his base but scare the crap out of anyone who was tired of being smarter then the president. If he had picked Mike Huckabee it might have been a real race. I don't agree with hardly anything the man stands for but dang if I didn't like him anyway.

I keep hearing that both sides were doing the scare tactics but I guess because I only watch Jon Stewart/Colbert instead of Fox I only saw one side doing it on a consistent basis.

2008-11-04 13:51:13
166.   D4P
In other words, I'm not sure we should be patting ourselves on the back too much and declaring racism dead

If this election has shown anything, it's that racism in the US is alive and well.

2008-11-04 13:51:51
167.   Lee Corbett
I am so excited by this election; something like 75-80% of Australian's want Obama to win - it's different when he's not going to run yuour country I know, but it's great nonetheless. I have my button on today.
2008-11-04 13:53:23
168.   Ken Arneson
160 Well, at least (b) could be determined in advance. If Obama been running against someone like Reagan in '84, he might not have waited for a better opportunity to run.
2008-11-04 13:54:31
169.   Andrew Shimmin
If there'd been an available Republican VP candidate that Republicans liked, and everybody else didn't hate, he or she would have beaten McCain in the primary.
2008-11-04 13:56:20
170.   Bob Timmermann
Pete Carroll voted for Barack Obama.

How do you do?

That would be funnier if Eric Stephen were visiting this thread.

2008-11-04 13:56:49
171.   fanerman
161 Equivalent? I'm the real thing!
2008-11-04 13:57:23
172.   Eric Enders
169 Bobby Jindal?

Extreeeeeme right winger, but very personable, telegenic, and likeable.

Except I guess running an Indian guy would have negated the GOP's main strategy against Obama.

2008-11-04 13:58:51
173.   Xeifrank
I don't think it would've mattered who McCain picked as VP once the Global Economic Crisis hit. Once that hit, the party with the history of fighting more regulation stood little chance of winning. Obama may have won a squeeker anyways, but the GEC sealed the deal imo.
vr, Xei
2008-11-04 14:05:47
174.   Jim Hitchcock
165 Again, TC!

The Palin pick was the final showed both terrible judgement and utter cynicism in one fell swoop (gotta pick up those evangelicals that hate me, and maybe a few Hillary supporters in the meantime!).

Oh, jeez...I realize now that I've just described every politician that ever lived.

2008-11-04 14:06:43
175.   Lee Corbett
Can I ask how long it takes on average to vote in the US?

I see the lines in the US and I think, is this typical? Does this not disenfranchise people in densely populated areas?

2008-11-04 14:06:52
176.   Andrew Shimmin
Jindal's been a governor for about twenty minutes. I don't think he'd have been particularly better received than Palin.

Does Obama's (presumably) winning the general by a wider margin than the primary mean that non-Democrats are less racist than Democrats?

2008-11-04 14:11:08
177.   Humma Kavula
172 This gets at something I've been wondering... where do the Republicans go from here?

As a progressive, the Republicans don't need to take notes from me. I won't be voting for them anyway.

But that said, I can't help thinking about this. It seems like the party is formed by, roughly, two groups: the social conservatives and the fiscal conservatives. While I would assume there's some overlap between those groups, I do wonder how much each has adopted the other's issues to keep a marriage of convenience alive... Maybe I'm wrong about that --

Except I can't help but get the feeling that if a moderate Republican ran against Obama in 2012, with an argument that he'd get the federal government out of your wallet and out of your bedroom, AND if that candidate somehow captured the nomination (not an easy thing to do), then he might stand a very good chance against Obama.

He could run as "a different kind of Republican." One that doesn't care about gay marriage or abortion -- those are individual decisions best left to individuals. Also one that would keep taxes low and cut spending.

He'd have to not be crazy and he'd have to be a current senator or governor, so I don't know if there's anyone that can do it. And I certainly wouldn't support that candidate. But I can't help shake the feeling that such a Republican might be able to peel off enough Democratic support to win.

I respectfully ask our Republican members for their thoughts.

2008-11-04 14:13:01
178.   Jim Hitchcock
175 Well, yeah, particularly when the amount of polling places (and machines) seem to shrink in less well off areas.
2008-11-04 14:13:09
179.   Xeifrank
175. It took me about 30 seconds to actually vote. I voted in my kitchen. I then dropped off my ballot at the post-office on the way to work. That took another 5 minutes or so. If you have to stand in line and don't vote absentee via the mail, it all depends on where you live. You could wait anywhere from 5 minutes to 4 hours to vote.
vr, Xei
2008-11-04 14:13:18
180.   Bob Timmermann
I don't think you can come up with a meaningful average. The long lines are in big cities. Also some places get better poll workers than others.
2008-11-04 14:14:24
181.   Humma Kavula
I posted this at DT, too, but...

My wait at 8:30 am in a small part of Los Angeles was zero minutes.

2008-11-04 14:15:20
182.   Xeifrank
177. The GOP will take back over when the Democrats mess up and vice versa. That's how things seem to work. :)
vr, Xei
2008-11-04 14:15:45
183.   Jim Hitchcock
177 I think the short answer is a Republican needs all those groups under his tent to win, even if he had the ability to pick up all the so-called Reagan Democrats.

But I'm not a Republican, so what do I know?

2008-11-04 14:16:22
184.   Eric Enders
175 I don't know what the average is, but it does seem that this year has seen much longer than average waits.

In Georgia and other places, there have been reports that rural and suburban precincts have more than enough voting machines, while urban precincts have extreme shortages and people have to wait in very long lines there. It seems obvious that this influences the election in a partisan way, but there has been shockingly little uproar about it. Yesterday somebody, I forget who, referred to the long waits as "a poll tax on working people," which I think is spot-on.

My experience must be atypical as I've never waited in line, not even for one minute, to vote for president. The first time I voted was in a university library, the second and third times were at a fire station in Cooperstown, and this year I voted in a big city but voted 10 days early.

2008-11-04 14:20:10
185.   El Lay Dave
175 , 180 I think that even within a region type (e.g., big city, rural area) it can vary from precinct to precinct. I have always voted in Los Angeles, in person, for nearly thirty years, and have been fortunate never to have had a wait longer than a couple of minutes, but YMMV, wildly.
2008-11-04 14:21:02
186.   Marty
I waited 20 minutes. There was another precinct line at my polling place that was easily 4 times as long. I actually enjoyed standing in line. I got to see and talk to people in my neighborhood who I normally don't see. Plus it's always exciting for me to vote on election day. I love it.
2008-11-04 14:22:13
187.   ssjames
I voted early in person at the Main Place Mall like 2 weeks ago, and was the second person in line, except the computer was screwy so I waited for like 5 minutes for them to process her. Then I voted and left and got a sticker that I have since lost.
2008-11-04 14:22:16
188.   Jacob Burch
177 I was just talking about this on another online forum less than a minute ago. The GOP seems to have gone far and away from the small government agenda that, in theory, is its root--and I was asking a few of our right leaning moderate members what they thought it would take--if it ever took--to return to that. I declined to state on registration and don't consider myself to be a democrat by any stretch--Dems anger me about 55% of the time--but because the modern Republican (not necessarily someone that votes GOP, but someone who truly considers themselves a republican) angers me 98% of the time, I've been basically straight-ticket.

As socially progressive as I am, I could see voting for a small government politician--especially on the local level--in order to enact a fiscal conservative check. But I don't see this ever being a safe choice unless the party changes their direction semi drastically.

Also, I am going to shove this Jason Molina mix CD at you whether you like it or not...Once I figure out how to hunt you down :)

2008-11-04 14:22:19
189.   ToyCannon
Not really, winning the Repub primary is a lot different then winning the center which is where all national elections are won and lost.

I don't think McCain ever realized how much his age played against him in this election. More then any other person who has run for president he needed a VP that the national electorate would have been comfortable with as president if the burden of the job proved to much for his health.

2008-11-04 14:22:52
190.   Humma Kavula
But the Republicans took over from the Democrats in 1994 when they changed their stripes a bit, and Democrats DID change their stripes, at least a little, for this election.

1. Howard Dean has been a mixed bag as party chairman. The DNC could be better at raising money. But he was right on when he demanded a 50-state organization. Tonight the Democrats should win Virginia and Colorado, might win North Carolina, and are going to come close in Indiana and Missouri. This is a far cry from the Democrats who encouraged their party to focus on the big cities and nobody else. Perhaps the policies haven't changed, but the way they approach electing their candidates has.

2. Clinton had every advantage a year out and lost. It isn't just that Obama was a better candidate -- Clinton was formidable. The fact that the party chose him and not Clinton speaks volumes -- 2008 would not be business as usual.

So I think it's too simple to say that the Republicans will take over when the Democrats screw up. While that's certainly true on a base level, it doesn't really explain how you think that will come about.

2008-11-04 14:23:57
191.   Marty
This in my ninth presidential election I could vote in. Assuming my candidate wins tonight, I'll have voted for the winning candidate 4 times. Carter, Clinton, Clinton, Obama.

The first candidate I ever voted for was Jerry Brown in 1974.

2008-11-04 14:24:45
192.   Humma Kavula
188 Ugh, remind me your email. I meant to drop you a note last week and then I forgot and then I remembered when I was away from my computer and then I forgot again.

I would love that CD. Thank you.

2008-11-04 14:25:28
193.   Jacob Burch
192 jacobburch at gmail dot com
2008-11-04 14:26:29
194.   Jacob Burch
I'd also like to point out that I appear to be on a mission to break Emily Dickinson's record for over use of the em dash.
2008-11-04 14:26:58
195.   Icaros

I recently checked out that Neutral Milk Hotel album at your suggestion. I like the title track best so far.

2008-11-04 14:27:39
196.   Physics DR

Believing in science and ACLU for 40 years I may not be the best person to answer this


The Republicans need a solid fiscal conservative that only talks about social issues. In the end does nothing about social issues.
Can you say Reagan.
Also a party that does not find ways to destroy its small progressive wing that can win senate/house seats in certain states.

2008-11-04 14:27:59
197.   Icaros

Wow, you have done every drug in the book. :-)

2008-11-04 14:28:58
198.   ToyCannon
I missed voting for Carter by a month. Now those were tough times. I've got an old paper mortgage calculator from Crocker Bank that starts are 7% and goes upto 18%. By the time Carter left office I think the rates were around 12%.
2008-11-04 14:29:27
199.   Jacob Burch
195 I loved Holland 1945, the title track and a few lines from Oh Comely for about the first six months/ten listens of the album, and I didn't get the other stuff much or why it was praised. Then on a full listen on a traffic-filled drive to work, the last track (Two Headed Boy pt. 2) started to finish and the entire album just clicked, and I just sat in my car for a few minutes processing it.

I don't claim such a life-affirming, magical state to happen to everyone--some people just like it. But I know a dozen or so people who had similar experiences to mine.

2008-11-04 14:31:12
200.   Jacob Burch
198 Who did you vote for in 92? I was all of six years old, so I have only a fallacious history book's worth of an idea what the politics were at the time, but I'm curious why you didn't vote for Clinton.
Show/Hide Comments 201-250
2008-11-04 14:31:29
201.   mwhite06
188 Bush has in particular which has angered many libertarian Republicans. But, in 4 years, the Republican party can come back to the table with a different candidate who (will promise anyway) will run on a limited government platform. Social conservatives will be easier to mobilize in 4 years regardless of the candidate (unless it is a Rudy Giuliani type) because they are most afraid of Obama appointing "activist" judges and can be placated by a candidate who promises a particuarly vanilla platform regarding social issues.
2008-11-04 14:32:27
202.   Humma Kavula
199 If I knew how to play guitar, I'm pretty sure my wife would leave me and take the child with her, because all I would do all day and night would be to strum the power chords of Two-Headed Boy and bleat out the lyrics in my nasally, annoying voice.

For the sake of my wife and my baby, it's a really good thing that I don't know how to play guitar.

2008-11-04 14:33:07
203.   Icaros

It's weird how that all works. Timing has a lot to do with it. I've also been exploring some Iron & Wine stuff lately as well.

The title track to the NMH album kinda reminds of my favorite song from The Flaming Lips "Clouds Taste Metallic," "They Punctured My Yolk."

2008-11-04 14:33:45
204.   tjdub
177 I think you just described me. I'm pretty sure I could give a hell of a stump speech too. I'm also tall and have nice hair so I figure I must have a shot.

Seriously, I'm very much a fiscal conservative and a social moderate as you described. The economics tend to override everything for me when I vote so I often feel like I end up voting more along party lines than I actually feel.

2008-11-04 14:33:48
205.   fanerman
underdog is missing the "Aeroplane" love.
2008-11-04 14:34:00
206.   Eric Enders
The Republicans could have won this year if they'd been able to come up with a good candidate. People weren't automatically going to vote against the GOP because of Bush -- it just happens that all the viable Republican candidates were tarnished because of their own culpability in creating the disaster of the last eight years. If they had any candidates who the public would believe weren't puppets for Bush, then they could have won.

The next Republican to win, I think, will certainly have to come from outside the current GOP power structure, somebody most people haven't heard of yet. It won't be Huckabee, Thompson, or any of those guys. Even Jindal has the stain of being a Bush appointee. The next Republican to win may be somebody who's not even in a major public office right now.

2008-11-04 14:37:10
207.   KG16
86 - because marriage is as much a civil institution as it is a religious institution. Common Law marriage existed in most states until a couple decades ago (a few states still have it, i think). dating back to the greek city states, marriages was conducted by magistrates - government officials. i've got a friend that has tried to convince me that marriages should be strictly religious and domestic partnerships should be the legal alternative. it never makes sense to me.
2008-11-04 14:37:27
208.   El Lay Dave
202 Funny, I always hear your comments in a nasally, annoying voice, ;)
2008-11-04 14:37:38
209.   mwhite06
206 Do you think Romney would have been a formidable candidate? I have thought about this recently considering his background turning around Bain Capital and the Salt Lake Olympics. Particularly during the recent financial crisis, he could have used that as a forum to discuss his quite impressive history as a CEO all the while not accepting any of the responsibility for creating the mess.

However, being a former CEO may not have granted him political capital during the recent crisis either.

2008-11-04 14:38:41
210.   Lee Corbett
Will Sarah Palin have a tilt at the next GOP primary? That I would like to see; she's truly remarkable.
2008-11-04 14:39:18
211.   Andrew Shimmin
189- I'm not sure I take your point. McCain won the Republican primary. The only serious competitor to his left (give or take) was Giuliani.
2008-11-04 14:40:03
212.   Icaros

In what sense do you mean "remarkable?"

2008-11-04 14:41:21
213.   Jacob Burch
203 Along with Jason Molina's discography, I also have nearly all of Iron and Wine's. I'm missing a couple of the hard to find early boot legs and I believe one single, but I have the rest, along with half a dozen or so live shows, if you'd like anything/a mix/whatever.

Will Oldham (Bonnie 'Prince' Billy) is next.

I may start doing a monthly mix based on what people have been saying they're listening to for DT commentators--It's something I've always loved doing, and having a half audience would be fun.

2008-11-04 14:42:13
214.   Humma Kavula
213 Ooh! "The Sounds of DT" Podcast!

I would subscribe.

2008-11-04 14:42:26
215.   D4P
If Obama wins, does anyone else consider the following to be inevitable:

All the folks who have been denying for 8 years that there were any problems in Bush's US will eventually acknowledge all of the problems and blame them on Obama?

2008-11-04 14:43:03
216.   Bob Timmermann
If McCain-Palin don't win, I would assume Palin would give it a go in 2012. There is a sizeable chunk of the GOP that likes her.
2008-11-04 14:44:20
217.   Andrew Shimmin
If the expected recession hasn't broken by the next election, my bet is that immigration will be the big hairy issue again, and that the Republicans will be able to find a formidable We Hate Foreigners candidate. If it has broken, or never materializes in the way expected, I think the Republicans will get back in once a majority of the country is directly paying the boomers' pharmacy tabs.
2008-11-04 14:45:08
218.   Lee Corbett
212 like a political car crash - you don't want to look, yet something compels you to. We have nothing like that in Australian politics; i find it fascinating!
2008-11-04 14:45:36
219.   mwhite06
210 Palin would almost certainly be the front-runner in 2012. She would effectively capture every vote that went to Huckabee, but would be a recognizable name to go along with it. She would be competing against Romney and a player to be named later who will run on a limited government platform.
2008-11-04 14:46:26
220.   Eric Enders
209 With Romney, I think the family history of fleeing the US to escape prosecution would have hurt him a little bit among uberpatriotic types. Being a CEO wouldn't resonate with a lot of people. And being associated with the Salt Lake Olympics, one of the most infamous modern examples of greed and corruption, isn't really a feather in anyone's cap, even though Romney wasn't responsible for any of the wrongdoing.

Plus he's boring.

2008-11-04 14:47:26
221.   ToyCannon
I didn't trust the slick talking hillbilly Rhodes Scholar, I sent my vote to Ross Perot.
2008-11-04 14:48:33
222.   Jacob Burch
A lot changes in four years. Palin would have to not screw up Alaska--and be under extreme scrutiny whilst--over the years to have the same chance. No reason even thinking about 2012 now, even in hypothesis.
2008-11-04 14:49:31
223.   Physics DR
210 In My Opinion

Palin, like Ferraro, will not be an issue or involved in the next presidential election.

Her best possibility is a GPS tracking device.

2008-11-04 14:50:31
224.   Jacob Burch
221 In said history class, Nixon was referred to exclusively as "Tricky Dick" and Bill Clinton as "Slick Willy."

Despite having the aura of the typical citizen in my very conservative suburban town, he actually did a great job of offering a balanced and fairly in depth view of history for a non-AP class (my handwriting is nearly illegible, so I could never pass an in class essay to go higher).

2008-11-04 14:50:54
225.   Lee Corbett
220 Funny how being a Mormon does not factor in.
2008-11-04 14:52:23
226.   Icaros

I'll e-mail you. Jason Molina is the guy from Songs:Ohia, right? I only have the split with My Morning Jacket, but I think that's a cool (long) song.

2008-11-04 14:52:35
227.   Lee Corbett
222 223 I just want more; more 'say it ain't so, Joe', 'her reward is in heaven, right?', and more Tina Fey impersonations.
2008-11-04 14:52:45
228.   ToyCannon
Let's enjoy today, why worry about 4 years from now. The landscape will change so much we might not even recognize the players in 2012. Are you the same people who were wondering who was going to be on the Dodgers in 2009 while we were in a pennant race in Sept?
2008-11-04 14:52:51
229.   blue22
Why not huckabee though?

Has the evangelical support. Was anti-bailout from the get go (and we'll see how that turns out; many are pessismistic at the effect it will have). Is very charismatic.

Why isn't he at the top of the list for republicans in 2012?

2008-11-04 14:53:27
230.   ToyCannon
I am sure gonna miss the Tina Fey impersonations. SNL has to be very unhappy with Obama/Biden.
2008-11-04 14:54:12
231.   Eric Enders
Well, in 2004 we were dreaming of a 2008 Dodgers playoff team featuring Russell Martin, James Loney, Chad Billingsley, Blake DeWitt, Jonathan Broxton, and Hong-Chih Kuo.
2008-11-04 14:54:14
232.   Jacob Burch
226 That is correct. The mix in question is his non-Magnolia Electric Co. stuff (which Kavula has), but I'll mix some stuff in for you.
2008-11-04 14:54:38
233.   Jim Hitchcock
219 Front runner? No way. Have you heard all of the criticism's leveled at her by conservative critics?

No, I think she's loved by the evangelicals, and not many else.

2008-11-04 14:57:00
234.   Eric Enders
229 We've done the whole redneck-who-doesn't-believe-in-science thing. I think the nation is tired of it. Huckabee could probably have won instead of Bush, but not after Bush. He'd have the religious evangelical base but probably little else. The same goes for Palin to a certain degree.

I think Humma in 177 provided a good desription of what the next successful Republican candidate will be like.

2008-11-04 14:57:14
235.   Icaros

Hockey moms.

2008-11-04 14:58:20
236.   ToyCannon
To bad Martin, Billingsley, and Broxton didn't show up for the 2nd round.
2008-11-04 15:01:09
237.   Marty
I voted for change and Damn it, I want change. I want electric cars.
I want national health care.
I want regulated financial institutions.
I want, Don Corleone, those politicians you carry around in your pocket like so many nickels and dimes.

Wait, forget the last one.

2008-11-04 15:01:34
238.   El Lay Dave
236 You have to learn how to win in the locals and primaries first, before you can succeed in the final round.
2008-11-04 15:02:30
239.   Andrew Shimmin
Huckabee's a big government, social conservative. Not a lot of people hip to play that song one more time, just now.
2008-11-04 15:02:41
240.   ToyCannon
I would have enjoyed a Sarah Palin / Arianna Huffington debate.
2008-11-04 15:02:42
241.   Andrew Shimmin
Or, what Enders said.
2008-11-04 15:04:41
242.   Andrew Shimmin
Bob Barr didn't show up to the CSPAN televised third party candidate debate, so it was just Nader and the guy from the Constitution Party. I was disappointed. I bet Nader was more disappointed.
2008-11-04 15:05:43
243.   ToyCannon
Bush Senior blew that argument out of the water. Skip the small fry stuff and just go for the prize winning bass.
2008-11-04 15:07:10
244.   Jacob Burch
I'm off to the polls. Back with my story and a rant that continues the idea of why I consider myself a moderate but also think I may never vote anything but democratic over the next 20 years.

And then, the burning of mixes!

2008-11-04 15:08:27
245.   blue22
Huck's big government? I thought the fair tax plan would reduce taxes overall. Is that incorrect?
2008-11-04 15:10:38
246.   Andrew Shimmin
245- He's in favor of cutting taxes and spending more money.
2008-11-04 15:10:45
247.   Xeifrank up with some interesting bookmakers odds from the election, plus a Nate Silver mention. Obama is -150 to win the 2012 election. Eeegadz! They have state by state lines too.
vr, Xei
2008-11-04 15:11:28
248.   Andrew Shimmin
Obama and McCain are too, though, so maybe I'm the crazy one.
2008-11-04 15:13:01
249.   D4P
Isn't Obama in favor of cutting taxes for some people and raising taxes for others?
2008-11-04 15:13:17
250.   blue22
246 - ah, I thought W was the sole member of that club. I usually associate tax cuts with decreasing govt spending - silly me.
Show/Hide Comments 251-300
2008-11-04 15:14:51
251.   El Lay Dave
243 Reagan before him? Bush the elder was a congressman for a couple terms; ol' Ronny held exactly two offices, Governor of California* and POTUS.

*second-most populous state when he was first elected, first by the time he left office.

2008-11-04 15:15:05
252.   Eric Enders
Obama is in favor of raising taxes on individuals making over $200,000, families making over $250,000, and unlicensed plumbers making $40,000.
2008-11-04 15:15:18
253.   Xeifrank
245. I'm all in favor of getting rid of/downsizing the IRS and revamping our tax codes/laws, but I'm not sure what a big adjustment like going from taxing income to taxing spending would have on our economy. On one hand people would have more income to spend, but on the otherhand they'd have a big incentive not to spend it. Our economy is currently built around waste and people spending up to their ears. In a two party system, I can't see any big changes to the tax codes. But if I were Emperor...
vr, Xei
2008-11-04 15:16:37
254.   Andrew Shimmin
249- Yes. He's also in favor of abortions for some, miniature American flags for the rest.
2008-11-04 15:16:58
255.   Xeifrank
252. $120k to $200k = no tax cut or increase?
vr, Xei
2008-11-04 15:18:20
256.   Bob Timmermann
I thought it was illegal for the Vegas sports books to take action on U.S. elections.
2008-11-04 15:19:06
257.   Andrew Shimmin
255- That's the plan he ran on. I heard a rumor that Congress has some say in the matter, but I'm not sure on the details.
2008-11-04 15:19:15
258.   fanerman
254 Don't blame me, I voted for Kodos.
2008-11-04 15:20:39
259.   Physics DR
There are 8 states that close before 5:00PM California time.

IF any of them go for Obama then McCain is in very serious trouble.

Those states are Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia.

(Not counting Vermont)

2008-11-04 15:29:25
260.   blue22
The bulk of indiana is already closed. Any numbers in yet?
2008-11-04 15:32:20
261.   Andrew Shimmin
260- <1% reporting, Obama has 55%. I'm not ready to project a winner, yet.
2008-11-04 15:32:57
262.   Xeifrank
256. Are any of the odds coming from Vegas? I thought they were all offshore.
vr, Xei
2008-11-04 15:34:53
263.   Jim Hitchcock
Four people I wish could be at the party tonight:

Molly Ivins, Studs Terkel, Paul Newman, and Paul Wellstone.

2008-11-04 15:35:21
264.   Lee Corbett
NY times has:

Indiana 55% Obama and 43% McCain with 1% reporting.

Ky is 36% O to 62% Mc, 1% reporting

N.H. is 67% O to 33% Mc, 1% reporting

2008-11-04 15:35:43
265.   Physics DR
Bye guys, it's been fun.

We have a bunch of college profs of the American History/Political Science in the house.

All over 59. Wifes and kids are gone.

Every four years unlimited beer and pizza for one night!

With our ages I am sure we will asleep by ten :) :)

2008-11-04 15:41:59
266.   Eric Enders
263 Amen.
2008-11-04 15:45:32
267.   KG16
The GOP needed to go into the wilderness. My concern is that part of the party really wants to be a European-style Christian Democrat party. But yeah, I'm in agreement with most of you on what needs to happen, fiscally conservative/socially moderate/realist on foreign policy. Their biggest problem, electorally, is the map. If they can't figure out how to be competitive in places like New York, California, and the upper midwest, they can only win by running the table on swing states.
2008-11-04 15:48:20
268.   Andrew Shimmin
Obama is up by exactly 711 votes in Indiana, right now. Joe Biden has a really funny joke about that, but his press aide won't let him tell it on the record.
2008-11-04 15:50:25
269.   KG16
I hate doing this, but... the GOP front runners for 2012 are: Huckabee, Romney, Palin, and Jindhal. Not much I like out of that group.

2% reporting in Indiana, 50-49 Obama leads. If McCain can't win Indiana, there's going to be a lot of blue on the map.

2008-11-04 15:50:40
270.   Jacob Burch
Nothing that controversial. Took fifteen minutes. Guy in front of me said he would not get his free ice cream because, despite liking the ice cream, Ben and Jerry's was too liberal for him.

The rant of moderateness is gone. Maybe later if certain props pass or don't pass.

2008-11-04 15:52:31
271.   KG16
good gawd. there is actually an Impeach Obama website up and running already. It seems to ignore the whole "high crimes and misdemeanors" thing and starts off with "why investigate Barack Obama?"
2008-11-04 15:53:45
272.   Humma Kavula
From Nate @ 538--

Just looking at some of the places where we have results in so far. Obama is substantially outperforming Kerry -- which is what he needs to do to win the state, of course, but the differences are pretty substantial.

Steuben: Kerry 34%, Obama 42%
DeKalb: Kerry 31%, Obama 38%
Knox: Kerry 36%, Obama 54%
Marshall: Kerry 31%, Obama 50%

2008-11-04 15:55:02
273.   Jacob Burch
And I ended up hesitantly voting yes on 2. I think ToyCannon is responsible. I actually think I'm not joking.
2008-11-04 15:56:38
274.   Andrew Shimmin
Newt Gingrich thinks he's running in 2012. I'm pretty sure the US will never have a President called Newt.

Saxby is a silly name, too.

2008-11-04 15:58:53
275.   Jim Hitchcock
Hockey Mama for Obama:

2008-11-04 15:59:01
276.   KG16
274 - maybe it's because I came of age in the 90s, but a part of me would like to see Gingrich vs Hillary in some race. But that part of me also misses Pop up Videos and Beavis and Butthead.
2008-11-04 15:59:50
277.   ToyCannon
Ben and Jerry sold their company years ago.

We used to get our eggs from a kid in my wife's class who won the science fair 1st prize with his awesome automatic chicken feeder.

2008-11-04 16:00:08
278.   KG16
9% reporting in Kentucky and McCain leads 51-48. I did not have Kentucky as "in play".
2008-11-04 16:00:14
279.   ToyCannon
Ken, just wanted to thank you for this.
2008-11-04 16:01:25
280.   Eric Enders
279 Yeah, this was fun and nowhere near as problematic as I thought it might be.
2008-11-04 16:02:08
281.   Jacob Burch
277 The company still talks about lack of BGH, and that's enough for him!
2008-11-04 16:02:44
282.   Tripon
172 Jindal is also 10 years younger than Obama.

I guess we'll see Jindal in national politics in 2016.

2008-11-04 16:03:33
283.   Eric Enders
278 MSNBC has basically those same numbers but has used them to call the state for McCain.
2008-11-04 16:04:11
284.   Andrew Shimmin
Man is Soledad O'Brien ever good looking.
2008-11-04 16:05:24
285.   Humma Kavula
CNN has called KY for McCain and VT for Obama. IN too close to call for the moment.
2008-11-04 16:05:41
286.   Jim Hitchcock
279 That's the 3rd time TC has beaten me to a post today.

Thanks, Ken...reading the comments today has been great fun.

2008-11-04 16:06:31
287.   ToyCannon
My oldest brother is quite liberal but also came very close to being a Priest in the late 60's. He has a big problem because his number one issue is abortion and has maintained he would never vote for anyone who wasn't against abortion. So for the last 30 years he has not voted for a president. He however loves Obama, and up until last night was still not sure if he'd break his promise.
2008-11-04 16:07:12
288.   KG16
283 - I'm surprised, because looking at the map, the higher population spots aren't in yet.
2008-11-04 16:08:48
289.   Andrew Shimmin
I'm sure they're using the exit polls. Whether they'll regret doing it, again, remains to be seen. Who says there's no drama tonight?
2008-11-04 16:08:57
290.   Humma Kavula
CNN has not called Indiana, for whatever that's worth.
2008-11-04 16:11:29
291.   bhsportsguy
290 Well, the polls did just close.
2008-11-04 16:12:16
292.   Jim Hitchcock
Alice Cooper, being a good republican, will probably not be playing `Elected' tonight.
2008-11-04 16:12:29
293.   Humma Kavula
291 I was confused by Eric's comment above -- I thought he was talking about IN when he was talking about KY.

Don't mind me.

2008-11-04 16:12:41
294.   fanerman
287 Maybe I'm in similar shoes as your brother.
2008-11-04 16:12:58
295.   KG16
keep in mind, also, that Northwest Indiana (by Chicago) has polls open later, and is a spot where Obama is expected to do very well.
2008-11-04 16:14:36
296.   KG16
294 - honest question: how is it that one issue can be, for lack of a better term, case dispositive for you? Single issue voters have always confused me.
2008-11-04 16:17:05
297.   Humma Kavula
Stepping into a meeting in a few minutes... thanks all.

Let's have some good news and some blue on the map by the time I get back! Hurrah!

2008-11-04 16:19:25
298.   Xeifrank
Indiana: Obama ahead 50-49, 8.8% reporting. Gap has narrowed. vr, Xei
2008-11-04 16:21:06
299.   Ken Arneson
"Thanks, Jessica, you were a terrific hologram."

--Wolf Blitzer, 2008 Presidential Election Coverage

It's like a Tomorrowland movie come true.

2008-11-04 16:21:09
300.   Xeifrank
W.Virgina goes red.
vr, Xei
Show/Hide Comments 301-350
2008-11-04 16:21:44
301.   ssjames
298 None of the large cities have reported yet either, which makes it look like Obama has a really good shot of picking that one up. If he does then the drama is over.
2008-11-04 16:21:56
302.   Xeifrank
McCain takes 50-48 lead in Indiana, 9.4% reporting. vr, Xei
2008-11-04 16:22:36
303.   Xeifrank
301. Then he needs a good cushion. Not sure how much that would be. vr, Xei
2008-11-04 16:24:18
304.   KG16
does anyone else find it strange, geographically that there are parts of Virgina that are further west than West Virgina?
2008-11-04 16:24:56
305.   D4P
I think McCain will win Indiana, but it's noteworthy that Obama made it close.
2008-11-04 16:26:37
306.   Xeifrank
304. Or that Alaska is the eastern most state. vr, Xei
2008-11-04 16:27:02
307.   Andrew Shimmin
You can't make me note it.
2008-11-04 16:28:48
308.   Jim Hitchcock
300 There never was much doubt about that. Virginia, OTOH...
2008-11-04 16:29:01
309.   KG16
306 - does it cross the date line? i didn't know that. though, i did learn this year, that you can see Russia from Alaska, and that they are always watching to see if Putin rears his head.
2008-11-04 16:29:08
310.   El Lay Dave
304 North-West Virginia was a mouth full. Nothing should be surprising about borders cleaved out in the midst of the Civil War.
2008-11-04 16:29:09
311.   D4P
McCain is actually ahead in Virginia.
2008-11-04 16:29:57
312.   El Lay Dave
309 If Putin sees his shadow is it six more weeks of winter?
2008-11-04 16:30:05
313.   Jim Hitchcock
306 And Hawai'i the most southern.
2008-11-04 16:30:43
314.   KG16
anyone in front of a tv yet? just curious as to who everyone is watching tonight. i'm leaning towards MSNBC when I get home, for what ever reason, I've always like Chris Matthews.
2008-11-04 16:30:56
315.   D4P
You're not worthy.
2008-11-04 16:32:07
316.   El Lay Dave
309 The date line dances around the Aleutian Islands of Alaska, but 180-degrees longitude, the border between east and west, cuts right through it.
2008-11-04 16:32:22
317.   D4P is doing a Star Wars - esque hologram thing.
2008-11-04 16:32:32
318.   KG16
from MSNBC:

Florida, 1% reporting, 48% Obama, 34% McCain.

[insert Palm Beach, Florida butterfly ballot joke here]

that's a huge amount of 3rd party voting going on there.

2008-11-04 16:33:20
319.   El Lay Dave
313 Have some poi y'all!
2008-11-04 16:34:02
320.   Xeifrank
318. I see 54-46 McCain in Florida. But the Tampa Bay Rays haven't voted yet, so I see a swing of a few points coming later in the day there.
vr, Xei
2008-11-04 16:35:19
321.   KG16
320 - msnbc now has it 55-36 Obama with 2% reporting. 10% third party is really strange. probably a glitch.
2008-11-04 16:35:23
322.   Xeifrank
McCain up by 5% in Indiana with 14% reporting. Obama will have a late push there, as pointed out.
vr, Xei
2008-11-04 16:35:26
323.   Andrew Shimmin
I wonder what's on Jeff Toobin's computer tonight. Islanders vs. Rangers, I bet.
2008-11-04 16:35:48
324.   fanerman
296 I guess the short answer is religion, though I don't know if I qualify as a single issue voter. This is the first Presidential election I've voted in. I ultimately voted for Obama, but it was difficult. I agree with Obama on many issues and feel he'd be a much better President than McCain, but that one issue made me think twice (actually maniy times). It's hard to have one issue be so much more important than other issues (and qualifications, too. Obviously we have to think a candidate qualified right? Even if someone agreed with me 100% on issues, that may not make them a good President). Personally, I still haven't figured out how to make that work. There is still much mulling over to be done.

I considered just not voting for President, since California probably didn't need another vote for Obama anyway, but my gut wanted Obama to win and I thought it'd be a little hypocritical to want Obama to win and not vote for him.

I'm still not completely sure I did what I should have done, and I'll surely wrestle with the issue more in the future, but that's that.

Anyway I hope that answers your question in a non-controversial way.

2008-11-04 16:35:50
325.   Jim Hitchcock
311 Well, maybe the precincts in the part of Virginia McCain's brother called `Communist Country' haven't reported yet :)
2008-11-04 16:35:59
326.   Xeifrank
321. Yeah, lots of wierd numbers with the small samples. Kind of like Juan Pierre with a .500 batting average after two games.
vr, Xei
2008-11-04 16:36:22
327.   twerp
For what it may be worth--hopefully a few smiles--I'll quote astute political observer Dolly Parton.

Asked if she'd ever run for president, she said, "Heck no. We've got enough boobs in Washington already."

She said if asked about foreign affairs, she'd reply "what's wrong with American men?"

And if asked about global warming, her reply: "If my globes get warm, I just take off my sweater."

2008-11-04 16:37:08
328.   D4P
538 is not loading very quickly tonight...
2008-11-04 16:37:15
329.   Jim Hitchcock
319 I have. My memory of it is not good.
2008-11-04 16:38:41
330.   Xeifrank
What are the states that McCain absolutely cannot lose, that were considered in play? vr, Xei
2008-11-04 16:38:48
331.   KG16
324 - fair enough. and i appreciate the answer.
2008-11-04 16:39:19
332.   Andrew Shimmin
If, instead of propping up Gunga Dan for no reason I can fathom, HDNET had bought out Michael Barone's contract, I'd never have to channel surf. America deserves Silver and Barone in the same room.

And Soledad O'Brien.

2008-11-04 16:40:04
333.   das411
177 , how is that not Mitt Romney?
2008-11-04 16:40:27
334.   D4P
According to 538, if I'm reading it right, McCain cannot win the election unless he wins Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania.
2008-11-04 16:41:35
335.   Tripon

politico is reporting Obama with 56.8% of the vote in Florida. McCain with 47.8%.

2008-11-04 16:46:35
336.   Xeifrank
335. That's funny.
vr, Xei
2008-11-04 16:51:22
337.   ssjames
Indiana is starting to close with still very little reporting from the large cities or the Chicago burbs.
2008-11-04 16:52:32
338.   El Lay Dave
333 "He'd have to not be crazy ..." ;)
2008-11-04 16:55:45
339.   Jim Hitchcock
335 Wow, the counties in Florida are all over the map (no pun intended).
2008-11-04 16:57:35
340.   D4P is calling South Carolina for McCain, with 0.567% precincts reporting and Obama ahead 55% to 44%.
2008-11-04 16:58:36
341.   Humma Kavula
CNN also calls SC for the old man.
2008-11-04 16:58:38
342.   D4P just called SC for McCain too, despite Obama being ahead.
2008-11-04 16:58:54
343.   Xeifrank
341. They are calling them on exit polls I assume. They've called Oklahoma with 0% reporting. vr, Xei
2008-11-04 16:59:23
344.   ToyCannon
Warner & Rockefeller projected winners in VA WV
2008-11-04 16:59:49
345.   D4P
They are calling them on exit polls I assume

Ah, so.

2008-11-04 17:00:05
346.   Andrew Shimmin
343- Or they got a memo from Karl Rove indicating that the election hijacking is going according to plans. . .
2008-11-04 17:00:55
347.   Humma Kavula
Did I hear right? Did NPR just call PA for Obama?
2008-11-04 17:01:02
348.   Xeifrank
346. Or more democrats chose to vote via the touch tone pad on their telephone. Just like they were instructed. :)
vr, Xei
2008-11-04 17:01:35
349.   Jim Hitchcock
MSNBC calling Pennsylvania for Obama. McCain cannot, cannot win without Pennsylvania.
2008-11-04 17:02:00
350.   Xeifrank
347. NBC News said so too.
vr, Xei
Show/Hide Comments 351-400
2008-11-04 17:02:01
351.   Andrew Shimmin
It's not impossible. Obama was up double digits in PA in the exit polls.
2008-11-04 17:02:10
352.   Humma Kavula
Yes. Obama winner in NH DE MD MA NJ ME DC IL and PA according to NPR.
2008-11-04 17:04:50
353.   Humma Kavula more conservative, not calling PA or NH yet.
2008-11-04 17:05:07
354.   Jim Hitchcock
352 Heh. Humma gets back from meeting bringing blue states with him.
2008-11-04 17:05:09
355.   Andrew Shimmin
CNN and Fox haven't called PA, yet.
2008-11-04 17:07:53
356.   Humma Kavula

Joseph Biden (D-DE) has been re-elected.

2008-11-04 17:08:39
357.   fanerman
Apparently there are election parties that peolpe have. I think the Toaster will by my election party.
2008-11-04 17:09:42
358.   Humma Kavula
I'm not surprised that Obama won PA. I thought he would win PA.

I am surprised by the speed by which the state was called for him.

2008-11-04 17:13:08
359.   Jim Hitchcock
357 This is fun, isn't it? Almost as much fun as watching (and blogging) the playoffs.
2008-11-04 17:13:20
360.   Andrew Shimmin
Fox says D4P has a new freshman Senator. So, good news there.
2008-11-04 17:13:48
361.   ToyCannon
Nate's interns aren't updating his tables.
2008-11-04 17:14:20
362.   ToyCannon
Better, because we know in advance the outcome.
2008-11-04 17:15:21
363.   Greg Brock
I'm just here to carefully record everybody's opinion.

Carry on.

Vote Whig!

2008-11-04 17:16:01
364.   fanerman
362 (knocks on wood just a little) But yeah. I'm more confident in the results tonight than I am in any baseball game.
2008-11-04 17:16:07
365.   ToyCannon
When did the Doles move to North Carolina?
2008-11-04 17:16:27
366.   D4P
In what way do you consider that "good news"...?
2008-11-04 17:16:49
367.   Xeifrank
359. Only fun because your guy won! Enjoy your gloating. I will hang my hat on "YES on 8" and our local Measure U passing. :)
vr, Xei
2008-11-04 17:17:26
368.   Humma Kavula
364 Yeah, knowing Obama will take California is like knowing that your team will score 55 in the ninth.
2008-11-04 17:17:52
369.   Jim Hitchcock
363 Quick, everybody change their screen names!
2008-11-04 17:18:13
370.   Andrew Shimmin
366- I'm not really a Republican. Liddy Dole deserved to lose.
2008-11-04 17:18:22
371.   das411
358 , see 349
2008-11-04 17:18:40
372.   Humma Kavula
367 I'm excited, but I hope I'm not gloating. If I am, I sincerely apologize. We don't need that here.

For the record, I'm cheering for my guy, not booing yours.

2008-11-04 17:18:56
373.   Jim Hitchcock
367 I would never gloat at you, Xei.
2008-11-04 17:21:38
374.   D4P
I'm not really a Republican

Ghasp! I suppose you're not really a DBacks fan either...

2008-11-04 17:21:39
375.   ToyCannon
I have no problem gloating after 8 years of grinding my teeth. Lives are at stake, not some baseball game.
2008-11-04 17:22:11
376.   Xeifrank
372/373. Enjoy your cheering. I wish our country and new Prez well, unlike the Move On Org people a few years back. :)
vr, Xei
2008-11-04 17:22:37
377.   Xeifrank
375. haha!
2008-11-04 17:24:20
378.   Jim Hitchcock
376 Xei, you and everybody else here are invited to my place for a glass of wine.

Of course, being in Carson City, I guess I mean that figuratively. Sigh.

2008-11-04 17:24:50
379.   Greg Brock
I always wonder how people can be so amazingly against one candidate or another, one president or another. This is America, not 1930's Europe. Our differences, philosophically, are infinitesimal, however large we wish them to be.
2008-11-04 17:25:21
380.   Andrew Shimmin
374- I'm way more of a D'back fan than a Republican. I really do like Eric Byrnes and Justin Upton. Though, I like McCain, too. That's one of the ways you can tell I'm not a real Republican. I registered as one in 1999 so that my vote for him in the primaries would count (not that it mattered). I would have switched over in 2004, if my guy on your side hadn't crapped out early.

I've still never voted for a Republican for Congress, or any state office. Maybe someday.

2008-11-04 17:26:01
381.   Humma Kavula
375 I understand where you're coming from. And I don't want to get on a high horse here, because I definitely get it.

So it's with respect that I say why I'm not gloating.

During Clinton's presidency, I could not for the life of me understand why Republicans hated him so much. And, frankly, I'm not interested in understanding. That's history.

Then, during Bush's presidency, the tables were turned and we had a president that I couldn't stand. I won't go into that here.

Part of the reason I supported Obama and not Clinton was that Hillary Clinton is a wildly divisive figure. I thought she'd be a fine president and if she'd been the nominee I would have voted for her, but -- how to put this -- I felt that if she was the nominee, and/or if she won, that would be bad for the country. It would continue the partisan split that we've seen for 16 years.

Maybe electing Obama won't change that. Maybe I'm a naive moonbeam for thinking even for a minute that he MIGHT change that. But I figured it was worth a shot.

So: no gloating from me. And, in fact, I beseech our Republican friends: give the guy a shot.

2008-11-04 17:26:45
382.   Andrew Shimmin
379- It's more fun being against Commies or Nazis than being against Jim down the street who thinks we should privatize the sidewalks.
2008-11-04 17:30:04
383.   Humma Kavula
382 is either the most brilliant or most offensive comment of the day.

Most likely, it's both.

2008-11-04 17:30:57
384.   Greg Brock
382 I judge commies or fascists based on a three percent difference in tax rates.

36 percenters hate minorities and the poor, 39 percenters want to collectivize the economy and abolish ownership. At least, that's what I've learned so far.

2008-11-04 17:31:27
385.   D4P
John Kerry wins!!!!!

Oh wait: it's 2008.

2008-11-04 17:32:10
386.   Tripon
John Kerry for AG. Calling it now.
2008-11-04 17:33:58
387.   Eric Enders
379 I couldn't disagree more. For instance, I can't think of a single thing on which I agree philosophically with our current president, except that baseball is cool. I'm frankly embarrassed to be part of the same human race that produced him.
2008-11-04 17:34:35
388.   fanerman
387 What other human races would you not be embarrassed to be?
2008-11-04 17:35:51
389.   Bob Timmermann
And Joe Biden wins his Senate seat in Delaware.

I'm still 50/50 on the existence of that place.

2008-11-04 17:37:07
390.   Humma Kavula
389 see 356 .
2008-11-04 17:37:33
391.   ToyCannon
I'm with Eric, that is like saying Jason Varitek is not much different then Russ Martin.
2008-11-04 17:37:51
392.   Bob Timmermann
I had value added content in my comment. Delaware jokes never get old.

At least for me.

2008-11-04 17:37:55
393.   Tripon
ABC calls Penn. and NH for Obama.

Fox News also call Penn for Obama.

2008-11-04 17:37:59
394.   fanerman
390 I think Bob Timmermann knew about that already. It just took him awhile to accept the fact that Delaware MIGHT exist and a certain vice-presidential candidate MIGHT have been re-elected there.
2008-11-04 17:38:00
395.   D4P
Fox has given PA to Obama.

That settles it.

2008-11-04 17:38:20
396.   ToyCannon
You need to step up your pace if you want to work your wizardry here.
2008-11-04 17:39:54
397.   fanerman
Are these calls based on exit polls or precinct reports?
2008-11-04 17:40:12
398.   Icaros
And CNN just gave PA to Obama as well.
2008-11-04 17:40:41
399.   Bob Timmermann
MSNBC put Alabama and Georgia in the McCain column.
2008-11-04 17:40:49
400.   Tripon
This is odd. Obama is currently losing Virgina to McCain, but is winning West Virgina.
Show/Hide Comments 401-450
2008-11-04 17:41:52
401.   Icaros


2008-11-04 17:43:20
402.   Tripon
I remember Kerry's first 'win' in 2004 was California. What a change in 4 years.
2008-11-04 17:43:57
403.   Bob Timmermann
I thought Georgia was supposed to be "in play."

I guess it wasn't.

2008-11-04 17:44:05
404.   D4P
What's up with Virginia? McCain seems to be way ahead...
2008-11-04 17:44:52
405.   Icaros

It might have been. I was just basing my comment on stereotypes.

2008-11-04 17:45:20
406.   Tripon
404 From

Obama is outperforming Kerry by a 12-15 point net in the Eastern half of the Virginia.

In the Western half, he's not performing much better than Kerry and is actually underperfoming him in some counties.

I think that equation works out favorably for Obama on balance, though Virginia will be fairly close. Donnie Fowler thinks the Obama people have more reason to be excited about Florida right now.

2008-11-04 17:46:00
407.   Icaros

Maybe they've only counted the "Real Virginia" votes so far.

2008-11-04 17:46:05
408.   fanerman
403 I thought so, too, based on early voting numbers.
2008-11-04 17:46:40
409.   Greg Brock
As a nominally nonpartisan observer, I would give anything to hop in a parallel dimension where McCain shocks the nation and Obama supporters go apeshit. I imagine losing this one would be debilitating. I mean, if you can't win this one...

I would then like to hop into the proper dimension where things turn out as the electorate would have it go.

But it would be a sight to see.

2008-11-04 17:47:38
410.   Bob Timmermann
Virginia gets its fair share of close elections.
2008-11-04 17:48:05
411.   Humma Kavula
409 One could argue that you have been living in Parallel Earth for the last eight years, and are now returning to the real world.
2008-11-04 17:50:45
412.   Icaros

I blame tobacco.

2008-11-04 17:50:59
413.   Bob Timmermann
So did the fact that CNN had a reporter coming to us "via hologram" add anything to what she had to say?
2008-11-04 17:52:09
414.   Tripon
413 It seemed that CNN just wanted the late night talk fodder on that.

I can already imagine what the Daily Show and the Colbert Report can do with that skit.

2008-11-04 17:52:22
415.   Icaros

She was reporting from the future. Don't want to spoil it for you.

2008-11-04 17:52:43
416.   Eric Enders
404 According to the CNN map nothing is in yet from the Hampton Roads, Richmond, or Washington DC areas.
2008-11-04 17:54:10
417.   Tripon

The key to any statewide victory for Republicans in Virginia is to run up big margins in suburban Richmond, and especially in Chesterfield County just below the James River from the capital.

In 2004, Bush beat Kerry there 63-37.

Now, with nearly 100% of precincts reporting, McCain is only beating Obama 54-45 in Chesterfield.

2008-11-04 17:54:29
418.   D4P
I was trying to figure out if the high population areas hadn't yet reported, but I was too geographically-challenged.
2008-11-04 17:55:07
419.   Bob Timmermann
I believe "via hologram" has supplanted the late night news "standup report in front of a place where a crime was committed nine hours ago."
2008-11-04 17:56:03
420.   Bob Timmermann
VA also has a weird setup where the big cities are separate from the counties. This applies to Richmond, Norfolk, and Virginia Beach among others.
2008-11-04 17:56:26
421.   fanerman
Can I interrupt Hologram Thoughts to ask you all what political websites you read? Where do you get your information/commentary on? Is it biased in any way?
2008-11-04 17:56:26
422.   ToyCannon
I'll trade Virgina for Florida and North Carolina.
2008-11-04 17:56:37
423.   Icaros
So far, this is like watching a 2008 Lakers game.
2008-11-04 17:57:35
424.   Bob Timmermann
Or, depending upon your perspective, a 2008 Clippers game.
2008-11-04 17:58:59
425.   ToyCannon
If it was a Clipper game the score would be tied at 60 before they lost by 20 points.
2008-11-04 18:00:22
426.   Bob Timmermann
Where is the one vote difference between MSNBC and CNN? Is one group holding out on one vote in Maine?
2008-11-04 18:00:37
427.   Icaros
If Walton and Mihm get minutes tonight, it'll be a good sign for Obama.
2008-11-04 18:00:55
428.   Humma Kavula
I had hopes for ND, but it was not to be. Oh well.
2008-11-04 18:01:12
429.   D4P
McCain is winning all of the laughing-stock states.
2008-11-04 18:01:46
430.   D4P
538 finally blued PA.
2008-11-04 18:02:06
431.   Andrew Shimmin
Fox called, then uncalled Ohio. That would have been the very end.
2008-11-04 18:02:44
432.   Bob Timmermann
ND should never have hired Charlie Weis.
2008-11-04 18:03:45
433.   Ken Arneson
421 Mine are at
2008-11-04 18:05:01
434.   D4P
It's tempting to assume that Fox obviously wants McCain to win.

But I have to think that, deep down, they secretly want the other party to take over so they can have someone else to blame.

2008-11-04 18:05:52
435.   Greg Brock
I approve of Chris Matthews calling the South "The Confederacy."
2008-11-04 18:06:51
436.   D4P
Me too. I think the McCain states should secede.
2008-11-04 18:06:52
437.   Indiana Jon
I would comment here on how this election is going since Rule 5 is allowed, but I hesitate to do that because I don't know if Rule 1 is allowed.
2008-11-04 18:07:50
438.   Icaros

There's a snowmoblie champion in Alaska who wants some of that, too.

2008-11-04 18:07:53
439.   Andrew Shimmin
Somebody's counting his chickens before they're hatched. NC is blue yet.
2008-11-04 18:07:56
440.   Bob Timmermann
Best headline on any website:
"New president will inherit economy from hell"
2008-11-04 18:08:04
441.   Greg Brock
436 If a Democrat would have let them, they would have.

Blame Andrew Jackson.

2008-11-04 18:08:09
442.   Andrew Shimmin
Isn't, that should be.
2008-11-04 18:08:58
443.   KG16
435 - that is pretty funny.
2008-11-04 18:09:00
444.   Bob Timmermann

"Fight Club" rules apply.

2008-11-04 18:09:20
445.   Humma Kavula
NPR says Fox says NM says Obama.
2008-11-04 18:09:27
446.   Indiana Jon
441 That was a very enlightening article you pointed out last night.
2008-11-04 18:10:08
447.   KG16
441 - Andrew Jackson: hero or villain?
2008-11-04 18:11:07
448.   Greg Brock
446 Yeah, John Meacham is the man.
2008-11-04 18:11:19
449.   Indiana Jon
444 I've removed my shirt and shoes.
2008-11-04 18:11:39
450.   Greg Brock
447 No.
Show/Hide Comments 451-500
2008-11-04 18:11:52
451.   Bob Timmermann
It's frightening that I've spent enough time in Michigan now visiting my brother there that I understand the nature of politics there and I can talk about the counties there like I was John King.
2008-11-04 18:12:48
452.   Greg Brock
Jennifer Granholm would get it.
2008-11-04 18:13:39
453.   Jacob Burch
426 I'm pretty sure it's Maine's northern vote, yes.
2008-11-04 18:14:36
454.   D4P
I'm not sure there's a single state that has gone to McCain that I would actually want in my union.

Maybe Wyoming.

2008-11-04 18:14:40
455.   Andrew Shimmin
CNN should have popped for a designated button pusher for Bill Schneider.
2008-11-04 18:15:07
456.   Bob Timmermann
Jennifer Granholm is probably America's most attractive female governor.

But she can never be president. She was born in ... CANADA.

2008-11-04 18:15:33
457.   Bob Timmermann
Thanks for indulging my obsession.
2008-11-04 18:15:41
458.   KG16
454 - SC has really nice beaches, from what i hear.
2008-11-04 18:15:46
459.   Eric Enders
Speaking of Jennifer Granholm, what exactly is the rule on being a native-born citizen in order to be president? Can you run for VP if you're foreign-born? I'm sure you can be Speaker of the House, and obviously you can be Secretary of State (Kissinger). So does the succession just skip over those people or what?

I should know the answer to that, but I don't.

2008-11-04 18:16:22
460.   Icaros

I wonder if that includes Salem's Lot. I hear vampires tend to vote liberal, mainly because of the aversion to crosses.

2008-11-04 18:16:23
461.   KG16
456 - if we annex Canada - not that we could afford it - would she then be eligible?
2008-11-04 18:16:25
462.   D4P
True. SC also has Charleston, which is great.
2008-11-04 18:17:20
463.   Icaros
Yeah, I'd take South Carolina on my team any day. It's pretty there.
2008-11-04 18:17:26
464.   Andrew Shimmin
The only state I'd be willing (eager, even) to part with is Florida.
2008-11-04 18:18:04
465.   Greg Brock
The sign of a healthy voter is when you want your political foe expelled from the nation. Or shot in a duel. Or hanged.

The more things change...

2008-11-04 18:18:05
466.   KG16
459 - if you are not eligible to be president, you are not eligible to be vice-president. so, foreign born naturalized citizens and those who have been president for at least 6 years are not eligible (there is only two people in the second category). but for the other positions, yes, it skips them.
2008-11-04 18:18:07
467.   Bob Timmermann
Vice-President and President have the same eligibility requirements.
2008-11-04 18:18:52
468.   Tripon
459 You have to either be born in the U.S., or your parents were U.S. citizens when you are born if you are born on foreign soil.

Actually I think McCain is the latter.

Also, non-native citizens can't run for the VP spot either.

2008-11-04 18:18:57
469.   Indiana Jon
454 I've been thinking about the same on the Obama states. Oh no, hold that thought. I need to keep Ohio since that's the closest major league baseball.
2008-11-04 18:21:05
470.   KG16
459 - also, in order to be president you must meet these exacting requirements:

- 35 years old
- natural born citizen
- 14 years a resident of the United States

what constitutes a natural born citizen is a bit more nebulous. there is a question raised every four years if a person is born outside the US to two american parents, if he would be eligible. McCain, for example, was born in the Panama Canal Zone. Congress passed a resolution specifically saying that he is a natural born citizen.

2008-11-04 18:21:08
471.   El Lay Dave
469 Without California, no Dodger Thoughts. (It would never have come to exist if they were still in Brooklyn.)
2008-11-04 18:22:01
472.   Tripon
Yeah, Nader is so not affecting the race this year.
2008-11-04 18:22:04
473.   Greg Brock
Once again, the mutual loathing between parties proves why a guy named "The Great Compromiser" couldn't win a national election to save his life.
2008-11-04 18:23:00
474.   KG16
Ohio to Obama, per MSNBC
2008-11-04 18:23:33
475.   KG16
473 - I always like Henry Clay.
2008-11-04 18:23:36
476.   Greg Brock
Obama wins Ohio. Congrats to the Senator from Illinois and his supporters. Election over.
2008-11-04 18:23:41
477.   Humma Kavula
msnbc calls ohio for obama.
2008-11-04 18:24:29
478.   Indiana Jon
471 Although I love Dodger Thoughts, that would be a small price to pay for the loss of California. Let's just say the majority of Californians don't exactly think like me and leave it at that.
2008-11-04 18:26:04
479.   Tripon
478 Thats because Notre Dame football isn't the best thing on earth.
2008-11-04 18:27:15
480.   Indiana Jon
479 But it does beat tree hugging.
2008-11-04 18:28:11
481.   KG16
480 - the Stanford fans would disagree.
2008-11-04 18:28:40
482.   Andrew Shimmin
We've moved on from tree hugging, thank you very much. We're chicken-huggers, now.
2008-11-04 18:28:59
483.   D4P
Trees provide a lot of services that are important to humans, which (somewhat ironically) provides support for "Intelligent Design" arguments.
2008-11-04 18:29:21
484.   Bob Timmermann
I think Indiana Jon runs afoul of more people because he thinks Bob Knight is a better basketball coach than John Wooden.

That's worse than John Lennon saying that the Beatles were bigger than Jesus.

2008-11-04 18:29:55
485.   Tripon
That reminds me. Prop 2, yay or nay?
2008-11-04 18:30:36
486.   KG16
in John Lennon's defense, the Beatles were bigger than Jesus. Jesus was just bigger after he died than the Beatles are.
2008-11-04 18:30:51
487.   Greg Brock
Jesus was a better basketball coach than Bob Knight.
2008-11-04 18:30:55
488.   Andrew Shimmin
485- We're not going to know how those went for several hours. But there was some discussion of it up thread, if you're looking for arguments about it.
2008-11-04 18:30:58
489.   KG16
485 - I think the consensus around here earlier was yay
2008-11-04 18:31:42
490.   Tripon
McCain wins West Virgina.
2008-11-04 18:32:14
491.   Indiana Jon
482 This is the second night in a row for the chicken thing. Last night it seemed to be tied to the proposition thing. You've got me curious now. What is it all about?
2008-11-04 18:32:25
492.   El Lay Dave
478 The majority of Californians don't think like me either. Good thing; absolutely nothing would get accomplished.

Even if only 1/3 of Californians agree with you on something, that's still around 12 million people. You would dump the whole state despite that?

2008-11-04 18:32:47
493.   Icaros
I wrote in Andrew Shimmin for Secretary of Chicken Killing on my ballot.
2008-11-04 18:33:34
494.   Indiana Jon
484 You're just biased by location on that one.
2008-11-04 18:34:16
495.   Greg Brock
485 I voted no. Of course, I don't hate California agriculture. Or farmers. You might. And I don't blame you.
2008-11-04 18:34:27
496.   Indiana Jon
I can't name a single Jesus song.
2008-11-04 18:34:44
497.   Andrew Shimmin
Ch-i was willing to spare Soddom and Gamorah for just one decent man.
2008-11-04 18:35:19
498.   Bob Timmermann
Where I come from, we dumped the Holy Spirit out of the Trinity and replaced it with John Wooden.

John Wooden was also created through parthenogenesis.

2008-11-04 18:35:41
499.   Icaros

He was better having others perform his material.

2008-11-04 18:36:26
500.   El Lay Dave
487 Jesus has unfair recruiting advantages, e.g., monetary restrictions mean nothing to him when he can just multiply the food at the official luncheon at will.
Show/Hide Comments 501-550
2008-11-04 18:36:40
501.   Indiana Jon
498 Believe it or not, Wooden is probably bigger in my town than he is out there, but Knight is bigger here than John Lennon.
2008-11-04 18:37:24
502.   Bob Timmermann
Paul is to Jesus as Sam Gilbert is to John Wooden.
2008-11-04 18:37:30
503.   Humma Kavula
With each percentage point of precinct coming in, Obama chips away at McCain's lead in VA.

With 28% to go, McCain's lead is 1,123,324 to 1,110,360.

2008-11-04 18:37:44
504.   El Lay Dave
496 Bob may debate if "It's a Brand New Day" qualifies or not.
2008-11-04 18:38:51
505.   Humma Kavula
Now just an 8000 vote lead for McCain in VA, still 72% reporting.
2008-11-04 18:38:58
506.   Greg Brock
Mitch McConnell lives!
2008-11-04 18:39:37
507.   fanerman
485 I also voted nay. Lots of animal rights people gave me the impression it was poorly worded and more of a "let's feel good about ourselves" thing. I still almost voted for it though.
2008-11-04 18:39:55
508.   Bill Crain
Assuming the father to be Vin Scully, how long do we have to wait before we can formally name Pete Carroll as the son?
2008-11-04 18:40:09
509.   Andrew Shimmin
507- What do you have against feeling good about yourself?
2008-11-04 18:40:17
510.   Icaros
They turned off the news at the McCain rally. Hank Williams is still playing, though.
2008-11-04 18:41:27
511.   D4P
They turned off the news at the McCain rally

Stupid librul media.

2008-11-04 18:41:58
512.   Greg Brock
What's happening in Chicago is pretty awesome. Democracy is awesome!

High five!

2008-11-04 18:42:05
513.   KG16
i was kind of hoping McConnell lost.

i am also disappointed to hear that Jon Kyl is safe for another 4 years. the ban on internet poker would make me a one issue voter if i lived in arizona.

2008-11-04 18:42:49
514.   fanerman
509 I'm emo.

I'm kidding. Really. I meant to say it's a "feel good about ourselves without actually helping the poor chickens" thing.

2008-11-04 18:42:55
515.   Greg Brock
The Mason-Dixon line is a real bitch.
2008-11-04 18:43:14
516.   Andrew Shimmin
On this day, I think we should recognize the service Alan Keyes did his country. Sure, he'll never, ever be president, but let it not be said that he had no effect on the presidential race.

Also, a big way-to-go for Jack Ryan's sexual impulse control.

2008-11-04 18:44:27
517.   Bob Timmermann
Iowa: Where Midwesterners stay up late.
2008-11-04 18:46:45
518.   Indiana Jon
Palin had to be the worst choice for a running mate ever. If there was ever a worse one, Bob will now correct me.
2008-11-04 18:47:19
519.   El Lay Dave
518 Thomas Eagleton?
2008-11-04 18:47:26
520.   KG16
518 - the dude that got electro-shock therapy wasn't a great choice... eagleburger?
2008-11-04 18:47:58
521.   Ken Arneson
516 John McCain was supposed to win, but Seven of Nine went back in time to change history.
2008-11-04 18:48:14
522.   Icaros
I remember when Dan Quayle was worst VP choice ever. Where is he now, anyway?
2008-11-04 18:48:35
523.   Humma Kavula
519 If he were running for VP today, would we hold the electroshock therapy against him?
2008-11-04 18:49:01
524.   Jacob Burch
Mmm, Eagle Burgers.
2008-11-04 18:49:15
525.   KG16
521 - that's the one thing i don't get, if you have Jeri Ryan at home, why would you even need to look at another girl?
2008-11-04 18:49:27
526.   Bill Crain
The worst choice for a running mate ever was made by one of our greatest presidents, Ronald Reagan.
2008-11-04 18:49:27
527.   Jacob Burch
I prefer mine bald!
2008-11-04 18:49:31
528.   Bob Timmermann
According to the guy who is an expert on the Vice Presidency and has an office next to my sister-in-law at Saint Louis U, the worst VP choice in modern history was Spiro Agnew.
2008-11-04 18:49:32
529.   Icaros

Not if he was just doing it as a way of getting high.

2008-11-04 18:49:53
530.   KG16
524 - eagle egg omelets are better
2008-11-04 18:50:00
531.   Humma Kavula
Votes trickle in in Virginia, and Obama still trails by about 8,000. It's gonna be clooooose.
2008-11-04 18:50:48
532.   Greg Brock
525 If you can get Jeri Ryan into a threesome, would that be even more awesome.

It's a bold gambit, but I can't blame a guy for trying.

2008-11-04 18:50:50
533.   D4P
Elizabeth Dole just said that her husband (Bob) had a cake made for her today at Food Lion.

For you non-Southerners, Food Lion is about 10X skankier than Safeway.

2008-11-04 18:50:58
534.   Bob Timmermann
The VA Board of Elections site shows McCain with a 5,000 vote lead in the Commonwealth.

That's a lead of .21%

2008-11-04 18:51:18
535.   Indiana Jon
519 That didn't really have an effect on the election though did it? Wasn't Nixon a clear winner all along?
2008-11-04 18:52:03
536.   KG16
532 - ah, well, yeah, didn't think of that. you are truly correct there, good sir.
2008-11-04 18:52:05
537.   Greg Brock
You can't have the worst VP choice when you win. That's just stupid talk.
2008-11-04 18:52:27
538.   Bob Timmermann
But you were just asking who was a poor choice for VP. Agnew was a poor choice because he would never have been a good president. He was both stupid AND corrupt. He was more corrupt than Nixon. That took effort!
2008-11-04 18:53:29
539.   KG16
537 - i don't know, if Reagan picks someone else, Bush 41 doesn't win in 88, Bush 43 doesn't have as great of name recognition in '00... ergo...
2008-11-04 18:53:42
540.   Humma Kavula
Don't look now, but here comes Indiana. 25% yet to report, 25,000 vote lead for McCain.
2008-11-04 18:53:46
541.   Icaros

Why not? The worst Presidential choice ever won twice.

2008-11-04 18:54:23
542.   Indiana Jon
538 It comes easy to some people.
2008-11-04 18:54:27
543.   KG16
541 - some of us would argue that the worst presidential choice won 4 times.
2008-11-04 18:54:43
544.   Humma Kavula has obama 1,000 behind mccain now in va.
2008-11-04 18:55:09
545.   Greg Brock
I thought you guys were talking politically. Not in terms of things like honesty and integrity. My bad.
2008-11-04 18:55:19
546.   Icaros

Can we agree on during our lifetimes, at least?

2008-11-04 18:55:45
547.   Humma Kavula
now 8,000-vote lead in va for obama.

my refresh finger is getting tired!

2008-11-04 18:55:48
548.   Indiana Jon
541 Clinton?
2008-11-04 18:56:37
549.   KG16
546 - yeah, i think we can find some agreement there
2008-11-04 18:56:57
550.   Bob Timmermann
I tracked down the St. Louis Post Dispatch interview with Joel K. Goldstein of Saint Louis University.

To be precise, he describes Agnew as his "least favorite" and Mondale as his "most favorite."

Show/Hide Comments 551-600
2008-11-04 18:57:00
551.   68elcamino427
Wasn't Reagan's initial selection for running mate the then Gov. of PA?
His choice was changed to Bush after about 48 hrs at the convention?
A member of the Trilateral commision needed to be a part of the ticket?
2008-11-04 18:57:41
552.   Icaros

I hated him at the time, too, but then he looked wonderful in the rear-view mirror.

2008-11-04 18:58:00
553.   KG16
Reagan's initial choice for veep was Ford, but Ford wouldn't go for it.
2008-11-04 18:58:16
554.   Bob Timmermann
Reagan picked the governor of PA, Richard Schweikert, as his running mate in 1976. Except he wasn't nominated. Reagan was thinking of nominating Ford as VP in 1980, but Ford ultimately backed out and Bush was the fallback choice.
2008-11-04 18:58:33
555.   El Lay Dave
538 OTOH, Agnew may have been a brilliant choice, so corrupt he had to be replaced by someone more palatable before Nixon himself resigned.
2008-11-04 18:59:07
556.   Greg Brock
552 His was an amazingly serene presidency. Very Eisenhower-like.

It's nice when nothing happens.

2008-11-04 18:59:12
557.   Indiana Jon
548 Not in my line of work he didn't.
2008-11-04 19:00:50
558.   Tripon
NBC calls New Mexico for Obama.
2008-11-04 19:01:10
559.   68elcamino427
This is obscure but I remember this because I had gone into the wilderness on vacation for a week and caught this in the paper the day we hit civilization.
Who was the Gov. of PA. at that time?
2008-11-04 19:01:14
560.   Bob Timmermann
I'm showing a 1400 vote edge for Obama in the Old Dominion.
2008-11-04 19:01:41
561.   Lee Corbett
Obama takes the lead in Virginia
2008-11-04 19:02:55
562.   Bob Timmermann
Actually, Schweikert wasn't a governor of PA, he was a senator.

The governor of PA in 1976 was Milton Shapp, a Democrat. In 1980, it was Richard Thornburgh, a Republican.

2008-11-04 19:03:20
563.   Greg Brock
Wow, whizzing around the tubes...A lot of people are hailing the death of the GOP on my favorite left-leaning websites.

These people don't read much. Or study history much.

2008-11-04 19:03:42
564.   Humma Kavula
Obama down just 5,000 in Indiana.
2008-11-04 19:03:47
565.   D4P
I'm calling Utah for McCain.
2008-11-04 19:04:01
566.   Lee Corbett
I hear James Carville (spelling?) has called Florida for Obama.
2008-11-04 19:04:04
567.   Bob Timmermann
And it was Richard Schweiker.

It's a good thing he never went further, since I keep messing up his name and job titles. Reagan did give him a Cabinet in HHS.

2008-11-04 19:05:40
568.   68elcamino427
Obama schmobama - looks like I'm going back to supporting a bigger piece of the neighborhood pie.

Thanks for the Schweikert update Bob

2008-11-04 19:06:33
569.   Indiana Jon
I understand that people voted for Obama because they wanted change, but do people really trust him? He seems to have a lot of that Clinton shadiness in him. I hope I'm wrong.
2008-11-04 19:06:58
570.   KG16
563 - i'm fairly libertarian and i've been predicting the collapse of the GOP since i was in high school. the fight between social conservatives and fiscal conservatives is going to be nasty. i hope the social conservatives lose and lose badly.
2008-11-04 19:09:34
571.   Bob Timmermann
You're welcome.

I watched a lot of the 1976 GOP convention. It was the last time there was anything mildly interesting going on at one of those things.

Reagan tried to get Ford to name his running mate before the convention too, but failed. Schweiker wasn't too popular it turned out as he was a relatively liberal Republican. Ford supporters called the rule change that the Reaganites wanted as the "Misery Loves Company" rule and it lost.

2008-11-04 19:09:52
572.   KG16
i was really hoping that Obama was going to win Mississippi. oh well.
2008-11-04 19:10:16
573.   68elcamino427
Is this like a chess game?
Do the oil companies prop this guy up and keep our attention off the ball while they drill their brains out and keep finding ways to create even greater profits?
They never loose. Never.
2008-11-04 19:10:25
574.   Bob Timmermann
Yes, and John McCain was going to win DC too.
2008-11-04 19:10:39
575.   Icaros

Do you find Bush trustworthy?

2008-11-04 19:10:49
576.   Eric Enders
Worst VP choice ever?

Who am I? Why am I here?

2008-11-04 19:11:28
577.   Tripon
I'd take Obama winning Arizona. Now that would be the most ironic thing to happen in this election.
2008-11-04 19:11:34
578.   KG16
it just would have been fun if Obama won Mississippi, not saying it was possible or likely, i just wanted it to happen.
2008-11-04 19:13:13
579.   Jacob Burch
Frost/Nixon looks petty good.

I don't know how you can measure shiftiness, and a good portion of the American people approved of Clinton's performance, and while I understand you hate him IJ, using him as a reason why we may not like Obama doesn't equate.

2008-11-04 19:13:25
580.   Tripon
How come Oregon isn't showing up when their election was done via absentee ballot and was over weeks ago?
2008-11-04 19:13:59
581.   Indiana Jon
575 Bush has a lot of problems, but I don't find trustworthiness to be one of them, in relation to other politicians.
2008-11-04 19:14:08
582.   KG16
good lord, Obama with 60% in Orange County Florida. i was under the impression that orange county and this orange county were similar in politics.
2008-11-04 19:14:42
583.   El Lay Dave
I trust the citizens of the U.S. to push Washington back toward the center where the most common ground lies anytime things start getting too far one way or another.

I trust none of the politicians.

2008-11-04 19:15:16
584.   Eric Enders
581 I just swallowed my chaw of tobacco. Or I would have, if I'd had one.

Has a less trustworthy person than Bush walked the earth during our lifetimes?

2008-11-04 19:15:38
585.   Jacob Burch
538 This sounds good. I do trust some, but not many.
2008-11-04 19:16:07
586.   68elcamino427
With so many very bright articulate people with tremendous leadership ability in this wonderful country with a population exceeding 300 million - how is it that we continuously are handed a couple of boobs to choose from?
2008-11-04 19:16:27
587.   Greg Brock
The one group of people I never trust is the people. Ever.
2008-11-04 19:16:39
588.   Tripon
584 His name is Dick Cheney.

Considering how powerful both Al Gore, and Dick Cheney made the VP slot, I wonder if Obama is going to allow such freedom to Biden.

2008-11-04 19:16:47
589.   Humma Kavula
584 Pol Pot.

Rupert Murdoch.

2008-11-04 19:17:06
590.   Eric Enders
586 Well, I guess Jack Ryan would have preferred four boobs.
2008-11-04 19:17:10
591.   Indiana Jon
579 That's not what I was trying to do. I simply recall that every time I saw Clinton speak, it reminded me of my kids talking when they lie to me. I get that same feeling with Obama. I wasn't comparing them in any other way or trying to say the country won't like him. I personally just don't tend to like people I can't trust.
2008-11-04 19:17:47
592.   Bob Timmermann
Oregon doesn't start releasing results until the deadline for dropping off a ballot. And that's at 8 pm PT.

You can drive up to places and toss it in.

2008-11-04 19:17:54
593.   68elcamino427
Oregon smoked their ballots?
2008-11-04 19:18:00
594.   Jacob Burch
586 Almost any of the best people in the world would either refuse to act like what it would take to win a large election, or start acting like what it would take to win a large election.

It's not pretty.

2008-11-04 19:18:25
595.   Tripon
586 At least we sorta directly elect our boobs.

In a parliamentary system, voters don't even get to pick the leader of the party. Don't think Gordon Brown could ever survive in American politics.

2008-11-04 19:19:30
596.   Indiana Jon
584 I guess it must be a matter of perspective. Bush has been straight forward in the things that affect me. Clinton was anything but.
2008-11-04 19:19:41
597.   KG16
594 - sometimes, I think Plato had the right idea. though i do like Mr. Madison's design.
2008-11-04 19:20:23
598.   Jacob Burch
591 I understand that, and most of the time, you have to trust your gut and convictions when it comes to these things. I just get a "I saw it in the eyes of Broxton" when I heard that, but I do completely understand. Just don't be act surprised when a lot of us don't agree.

I didn't know people like KG could think FDR was the worst president ever--surely small government wouldn't like big, but I was never aware people despised him. More you know.

(Note: Not saying you're wrong, though feel free to explain. WWII era American history is not my strong point. I stop my trivia interest at WWI).

2008-11-04 19:20:36
599.   68elcamino427
How were the US presidents selected prior to 1850?
2008-11-04 19:21:18
600.   Jacob Burch
597 I try and not think about idealized structures for the democratic process, because, well, it ain't happening. But I agree with both opinions.
Show/Hide Comments 601-650
2008-11-04 19:22:15
601.   Bob Timmermann
There was some form of popular vote used in presidential elections from 1824 through 1848. Some states apportioned electors by district.

Before that, state legislatures and governors appointed electors.

It was... different.

2008-11-04 19:23:36
602.   Indiana Jon
598 Lol, I wasn't surprised at all when most of you didn't agree. I usually agree with this crowd on Dodgers matters only. Matter of fact, I only came here tonight to get an opposing view of this election to see if maybe I could find myself some sort of positive though on what is going on.
2008-11-04 19:23:43
603.   Jacob Burch
596 I guess it must be a matter of perspective.

This is what I have to tell myself over and over when I get the urge to sing the body opinionated. There's a reason why we all get a vote, and not every disagreement can really be settled right or wrong. I do think a lot of things I care about have more of a degree of right/wrong, but it can be hard to think so in times of political passion.

2008-11-04 19:24:15
604.   68elcamino427
So prior to 1824 the system was more Hamiltonian in some respects?
2008-11-04 19:24:45
605.   KG16
598 - i don't really despise FDR, just some of his policies. It mainly comes down to the Court packing scheme. the Supreme Court kept striking down New Deal programs as unconstitutional, then came the court packing idea, and then we get Wickard v Filburn which made everything interstate commerce. it's more about the fundamental shift in the nature of government after FDR, but then the industrial revolution was going to do that anyway.
2008-11-04 19:26:48
606.   El Lay Dave
The Founding Fathers didn't expect the people to elect U.S. Senators directly either. The 17th Amendment didn't come around until the 1910s.
2008-11-04 19:27:30
607.   Jacob Burch
602 I suppose that was more meant of a "try and not hate us--" something I had to tell myself over and over when returning to be conservative city after 00 (well, sort of) and 04.
2008-11-04 19:27:52
608.   Eric Enders
605 OK, the court packing thing was dumb, but since it didn't work and had zero effect on the country -- how does that impact FDR's effectiveness as president?
2008-11-04 19:28:02
609.   D4P
McCain is now slightly ahead in North Carolina.
2008-11-04 19:29:53
610.   KG16
and also, i should clarify, i don't think FDR was the worst president ever. Nixon, Bush 43, Andrew Johnson, and Carter are all clamoring for that title.

FDR was one of the most influential presidents in American history, he redefined the role of the federal government and the office. i just don't like the way it was redefined.

2008-11-04 19:30:16
611.   Greg Brock
I'm hoping Obama will vow to restore the power of the legislative branch and weaken the executive, as Jefferson promised to do.

I'm sure he'll get right on that.

2008-11-04 19:30:29
612.   Humma Kavula
McCain also still slightly ahead in Indiana. 3700 votes separate the two.
2008-11-04 19:31:09
613.   Humma Kavula
610 Warren G. Harding has gotta be on the short-short list of worst presidents evah.
2008-11-04 19:31:17
614.   KG16
608 - the threat of it worked, because it changed the decisions by the Court. which in turn greatly expanded the power of the federal government, power that I don't think it should have had.

FDR was very effective, but as i said in 610 , i don't like the way in which he was effective.

2008-11-04 19:31:55
615.   Indiana Jon
607 Oh I don't hate anyone here. When our military goes to hell again and I watch my fellow soldiers go to war with outdated equipment, lose jobs, etc. then I will hate the Democrats in charge, but never you guys. It's not like you're Giants fans or anything.
2008-11-04 19:32:43
616.   Bob Timmermann
Early presidential election systems: the really short form

Washington won the first two because everybody wanted him. Hamilton arranged for a few people to not vote for Adams so he would be VP (as was the rule at the time).

In 1796, parties show up and Adams and Jefferson run against each other. The Federalists prevail, but Jefferson finishes second and becomes VP. Adams and Jefferson aren't getting along well and people think that this might not be a good idea.

In 1800, Adams and Jefferson go at it again. The electors for each side are highly disciplined this time, especially Jefferson's and all of them vote Jefferson and Burr. For the Federalists, one guy peels off from Pinckney (the putative VP choice). Jefferson and Burr tie and Jefferson wins a contentious battle in the House and Burr goes off and shoots Hamilton.

By 1804, the Federalists really don't have much left and Jefferson wins fairly easily and the VP vote is separate and George Clinton comes to DC.

The same holds true in 1808 and 1812 for Madison, who wins fairly easily. Monroe wins handily in 1820 and has no opposition in 1824. Not that he was the most universally liked president. It's just that nobody could organize an opposition.

By 1824, the process for nominating candidates is a mess. Some are nominated by Congress, some by state legislatures. It's a four way battle among Adams, Jackson, Clay, and Crawford. Jackson gets the most popular votes and the most electoral votes, but not a majority of either. And not all the states have a popular vote.

The election goes to the House and Clay has his states back Adams. All hell breaks loose.

In 1828, Jackson comes back looking for blood and gets it.

In 1832, the Democrats use a convention of party delegates to nominate a candidate and elections begin to resemble something like today's.

In the same way that a baseball game from 1861 would resemble one from today.

2008-11-04 19:32:45
617.   Icaros

See, all of the work you did passing out flyers paid off.

2008-11-04 19:33:00
618.   KG16
611 - Jefferson weakened the executive branch?
2008-11-04 19:34:18
619.   Greg Brock
Monroe had no opponent in 1820. The Corrupt Bargain was 1824. Jackson gets revenge in '28.

Clay gets hammered in '32.

2008-11-04 19:34:26
620.   KG16
so, would Hamilton have been president if he shot first?

i am a big Hamilton fan.

2008-11-04 19:35:09
621.   Greg Brock
618 Not at all. He strenthened it tenfold.

I said "promised to."

2008-11-04 19:35:32
622.   Bob Timmermann
Hamilton's political career was over before Burr murdered him.
2008-11-04 19:36:14
623.   KG16
which raises the question: has an president willingly ceded power from the executive to the legislature? or is it all Youngstown Steel?
2008-11-04 19:36:43
624.   Greg Brock
Hamilton got caught in a sordid affair. But he ruined Burr's shot at governor of New York. Hence, the duel.
2008-11-04 19:36:53
625.   Indiana Jon
616 What about 1816?
2008-11-04 19:37:22
626.   Bob Timmermann
William Henry Harrison said in his inaugural address that the executive branch should always defer to the legislative.

Then he died. Tyler took over. And the ending writes itself!

2008-11-04 19:38:29
627.   Bob Timmermann
I was writing fast there, sorry.

I repeated 1824. For Monroe's two terms subtract four years from the starting dates.

I ask for unanimous consent to revise and extend my remarks.

2008-11-04 19:38:59
628.   Greg Brock
The Whigs vowed to limit their presidencies to one term. They accomplished that by:

Dying in office
Not winning

2008-11-04 19:40:05
629.   KG16
I kind of hope that Obama appoints someone to the Supreme Court with a legislative background. that balance has been missing lately
2008-11-04 19:40:58
630.   Indiana Jon
Yeah, I figured that out after 619 .
2008-11-04 19:41:10
631.   D4P
I hate it when the winners talk about bi-partisanship.
2008-11-04 19:41:12
632.   Tripon
Well, it looks like McCain will win his home state of Arizona. At least they haven't abandoned him...yet.

So where does this leave McCain? Back to the senate until he retires?

2008-11-04 19:41:15
633.   KG16
628 - you should be happy to know that there is a new Whig Party

2008-11-04 19:42:02
634.   Tripon
629 Hillary Clinton for Supreme Court?
2008-11-04 19:42:48
635.   KG16
632 - he's got to run for reelection in 2 years. there was a poll out recently showing him trailing the Democratic governor in a race for the senate.

ideally, at 74, he'll ride off into the sunset.

2008-11-04 19:43:03
636.   Indiana Jon
McCain in up by 15,000 in Indiana with 90% reporting. I may at least go to bed with a sliver of satisfaction.
2008-11-04 19:43:21
637.   D4P
Not looking good for Obama in NC.
2008-11-04 19:43:26
638.   KG16
i don't know about Hillary for Supreme Court thing. mainly because she said she doesn't want it.
2008-11-04 19:43:26
639.   Greg Brock
633 Oh trust me...Of this, I am aware.
2008-11-04 19:43:52
640.   Eric Enders
634 Bill would actually make an interesting supreme court justice.
2008-11-04 19:44:26
641.   El Lay Dave
628 Polk got a lot of cred from my history teachers for promising to serve only term and keeping his word. Of course, he didn't survive his successor's first term anyway. And neither did his successor.

621 Even if he intended to, the temptation to purchase Louisiana would have been too much.

2008-11-04 19:44:36
642.   D4P
Fox gives VA to Obama.
2008-11-04 19:44:39
643.   Icaros

Quit gloating.

2008-11-04 19:45:10
644.   Tripon
Obama is pulling out Virgina late.

With 90.4% of districts reporting, Obama is up 50.7% to McCain's 48.1%

2008-11-04 19:45:23
645.   Indiana Jon
Why are they not calling Florida yet? This isn't 2000 again.
2008-11-04 19:46:18
646.   Tripon
640 Ah, but Bill Clinton doesn't have any legislative experience. ~_~
2008-11-04 19:46:34
647.   Bob Timmermann
They are still waiting to see who HBO will cast in the movie.
2008-11-04 19:47:49
648.   68elcamino427
Timmermann & Brock

Very nice.

2008-11-04 19:48:38
649.   Greg Brock
I'd like to see a sitting Senator be appointed to the court.

Orrin Hatch would have made a good justice. Clinton would as well. Taking the partisanship out of the thing, there are some smart legal minds in the Senate.

2008-11-04 19:48:47
650.   Indiana Jon
Indiana tightens back up to 5,000 at 91%. This is not as fun as staying up to watch a west coast game.
Show/Hide Comments 651-700
2008-11-04 19:50:08
651.   Tripon
So will MSNBC be terribly smug for the next four years, and Fox News the underdog network that's trying to gain viewership by being the counter-programming of the news networks?
2008-11-04 19:50:44
652.   Greg Brock
628 Polk died right after leaving the office, too. None of this post-presidency speechification and memoir writing.

The man accomplished his four goals, left, and died. Efficient.

2008-11-04 19:50:59
653.   Bob Timmermann
In 2000, as hell as was breaking loose in Florida, the sewer line in my apartment building started backing up into my tub and toilet.

That's what I remember the most from that election.

2008-11-04 19:51:00
654.   Andrew Shimmin
Forget legislative experience, I'm with Enders: let's see somebody who was disbarred on the Court.
2008-11-04 19:51:19
655.   KG16
649 - i really thought that Bush was going to appoint Hatch. heck, i wouldn't have been surprised if Clinton would have appointed him if he had another appointment during his second term.
2008-11-04 19:53:31
656.   Andrew Shimmin
If Orin Hatch were on the Court, every one who ever pirated music would be in Guantanamo right now.
2008-11-04 19:54:38
657.   KG16
anyone notice that Fox called Virginia for Obama?
2008-11-04 19:55:05
658.   Indiana Jon
Obama has the lead now in Indiana. It appears he's getting a lot of the late vote, probably from Gary/Hammond and Evansville, which are in a different time zone.
2008-11-04 19:55:33
659.   Bob Timmermann
If Arlen Spector were on the Supreme Court, I could be watching the NFL Draft Combine on my cable system.

And then be begging to be sent to Gitmo.

2008-11-04 19:55:43
660.   Andrew Shimmin
Did they? CNN still hasn't. Has CNN called anything first?
2008-11-04 19:55:54
661.   D4P
642 did
2008-11-04 19:56:16
662.   Greg Brock
The Old Dominion ain't the Old Dominion anymore.
2008-11-04 19:56:50
663.   Andrew Shimmin
Obama should nominate Bork for the next opening. He'll be dead soon, so there's not too much damage he could do. And it would be funny.
2008-11-04 19:57:37
664.   KG16
i will take any of the posters here:
2008-11-04 19:57:51
665.   Bob Timmermann
So if Arizona goes for McCain, do the U of A students storm the field anyway?
2008-11-04 19:57:59
666.   Andrew Shimmin
Bill Plaschke.

Sorry; habit.

2008-11-04 19:58:24
667.   Greg Brock
Wow, old people are really hung up on the fact that Obama is black.

None of my students doubt they could be anything they want. I don't know how many seventeen year old black kids Chris Matthews talks to, but I'd guess it's not very many.

Today's kids just don't think like that.

2008-11-04 19:58:33
668.   KG16
666 - damn, you beat me to it
2008-11-04 19:58:52
669.   Andrew Shimmin
There we go. CNN calls Virginia.
2008-11-04 19:59:19
670.   KG16
667 - baby boomers don't think like the rest of us. their yoda was not strong enough
2008-11-04 19:59:43
671.   Andrew Shimmin
How many seventeen year old black kids should Chris Matthews be talking to?
2008-11-04 19:59:48
672.   D4P
CNN now calls VA for Obama.
2008-11-04 19:59:52
673.   KG16
interesting, Nate Silver hasn't called Georgia yet
2008-11-04 20:00:34
674.   Eric Enders
665 They could do like Texas Tech and storm the field three different times.
2008-11-04 20:00:47
675.   KG16
and the west coast is in, and we have a new president-elect
2008-11-04 20:01:20
676.   El Lay Dave
666 is a potential answer to 584 .
2008-11-04 20:01:42
677.   Eric Stephen
Pete Carroll voted for Obama. Obama is projected to have won the Presidency.

You do the math.

2008-11-04 20:02:03
678.   Indiana Jon
674 Only kick off I've ever seen from the 7 yard line. As a Tech fan, that made me a little nervous.
2008-11-04 20:02:28
679.   Greg Brock
671 Um, lots? There is no dearth of them in Washington D.C., you know.
2008-11-04 20:02:44
680.   KG16
juan williams sounds like he's about to cry on fox news talking about obama's win. his voice has broken about three or four times.
2008-11-04 20:02:46
681.   Tripon
667 The problem is that old people still vote in larger numbers than younger people.

Also, I didn't realize how racist I was as a person until I took a class on race in America. In fact, none of the students taking the class knew how racist they were as Americans.

2008-11-04 20:03:42
682.   Tripon
677 Obama took Pete Carroll's catchphrase of 'Always Compete' to heart.
2008-11-04 20:04:30
683.   D4P
Just like that, CA, OR, and WA given to Obama.
2008-11-04 20:04:39
684.   Indiana Jon
At least it's not Hillary. I won't have to follow through on my promise to leave the country.
2008-11-04 20:05:37
685.   Andrew Shimmin
679- His kids are grown up, though, right? Non-teachers take great strides not to talk to teenagers of any race. I do, anyway, and I don't hold it against other people who do.
2008-11-04 20:05:54
686.   El Lay Dave
667 , 670 - b. 1960 makes me a mid-to-late boomer, yes?

Ultimately, I think it will be more historically important that Obama is of mixed-heritage and not predominately "white", rather than that he is "black".

I wonder if they are celebrating at Occidental.

2008-11-04 20:06:51
687.   Tripon calls the race for Obama.
2008-11-04 20:06:52
688.   Andrew Shimmin
684- Where would you have gone, though? That's the thing, lefties can flit off to any number of places that are pretty good. Where do right wingers threaten to move? Even Australia is pretty squishy.
2008-11-04 20:07:26
689.   John Hale
Is Pete Carrol on the Mt Rushmore of coaches with 1.5 football championships?
2008-11-04 20:07:34
690.   Indiana Jon
687 Them and the rest of the country.
2008-11-04 20:07:36
691.   Eric Enders
688 Saudi Arabia.
2008-11-04 20:08:25
692.   Indiana Jon
688 Jamaica. I love Appleton's.
2008-11-04 20:08:53
693.   Andrew Shimmin
691- Ever the gracious winner. But I laughed.
2008-11-04 20:09:28
694.   Daniel Zappala
An absolutely incredible night. What a glorious thing for America to elect a black man President. Obama has an incredibly difficult job ahead of him to turn the country around. May God be with him.
2008-11-04 20:09:56
695.   D4P
Alaska, Idaho, Kentucky...plenty of options.
2008-11-04 20:09:58
696.   Greg Brock
I'm trying to put together a slide show of the electoral map changes through the night, and Nate Silver's interns are effing up. Update the thing already!
2008-11-04 20:10:25
697.   das411
694 , but isn't that quote "What a glorious thing for America to elect a black man President" in itself RACISM?
2008-11-04 20:10:37
698.   Eric Enders
I hope some reporter is interviewing Rachel Robinson right now.
2008-11-04 20:10:40
699.   D4P
Obama has an incredibly difficult job ahead of him to turn the country around

I've long considered winning this election to be a booby prize, with the winner almost destined to fail.

2008-11-04 20:11:07
700.   Jacob Burch
697 Acknowledging race is not racism. So, no.
Show/Hide Comments 701-750
2008-11-04 20:11:34
701.   Andrew Shimmin
699- Quit trying to lower expectations--that's our game!
2008-11-04 20:13:01
702.   Tripon
You think Obama's a one term president?

This country gave a pass to Bush in 2004, it won't award the same benefit to Obama in 2012?

2008-11-04 20:13:27
703.   El Lay Dave
699 Eh. The economy was in the crapper in 1980 and 1992 and the guys elected those years won a second term and, like them or not, accomplished some things. How are you defining fail / not fail?
2008-11-04 20:13:57
704.   Lee Corbett
What a great result.
2008-11-04 20:14:06
705.   Greg Brock
699 Betting on the United States falling apart in the long term has never been a very good bet.

Betting against the United States in any ten year period, save the Depression, has never been a very good bet.

It's a pretty resilient country.

2008-11-04 20:14:09
706.   Eric Enders
It's not often you see a seven-word AP story but that's what they have on the wire right now.

"WASHINGTON – Barack Obama has won the presidency."

2008-11-04 20:15:02
707.   Indiana Jon
703 Don't forget a couple of wars going on too.
2008-11-04 20:16:12
708.   D4P
Bush is leaving virtually nothing for Obama.

Economy: terrible
Environment: terrible
Energy: terrible
Foreign relations: terrible
Iraq: terrible
Etc.: terrible

I'm not sure it's reasonable to expect anyone to fix all this stuff.

2008-11-04 20:16:43
709.   KG16
MSNBC has just called Florida for Obama now, he's over 300, and now the question is if it will finish in landslide territory
2008-11-04 20:16:53
710.   fanerman
So when do we get news about the chickens?
2008-11-04 20:18:39
711.   D4P
McCain up more than 20,000 votes in NC.
2008-11-04 20:18:53
712.   Greg Brock
I need help with reconciling "Crying Jesse Jackson" with "I want to cut his nuts off Jesse Jackson."
2008-11-04 20:18:57
713.   Andrew Shimmin
McCain's tie matches his wife's dress.

He really is old, I guess.

2008-11-04 20:19:42
714.   Tripon
There's talk that Jesse Jackson Jr. is going to inherit Obama's IL senate seat.
2008-11-04 20:19:58
715.   68elcamino427
Talk'in 'bout a reveolution ... well you know ...

Interesting times await.

2008-11-04 20:20:03
716.   Eric Enders
712 I was just about to post the same thing. Crocodile tears.
2008-11-04 20:20:22
717.   El Lay Dave
708 Do they have to be fixed by Obama? If a bare majority of that list are turned around enough to be pointed in the right direction, that's probably success in most people's eyes. Nowhere to go but up?
2008-11-04 20:20:25
718.   fanerman
You inherit senate seats?
2008-11-04 20:21:07
719.   Indiana Jon
710 Will someone please tellme what it up with chickens?
2008-11-04 20:21:35
720.   KG16
for those interested in the chickens and railroads, the Times has a nice little interactive map to see what counties went what way.

there's also something at the secretary of state's website, but it is not loading for me at the moment.

2008-11-04 20:21:41
721.   Greg Brock
Unfortunately, Teddy never welcomed Washington back to the White House.
2008-11-04 20:21:58
722.   D4P
Only seeing Caucasians in McCain's crowd.
2008-11-04 20:21:59
723.   Andrew Shimmin
The governor appoints a replacement. I'm betting it won't be Jackson.
2008-11-04 20:22:14
724.   Eric Stephen
Bob, I retract 677 . Once again, I've been hanging all day in the wrong thread on the Toaster, and missing out on the party over here.

I'm just getting caught up now, and saw your note, posted many hours before mine! :)

2008-11-04 20:22:38
725.   fanerman
2008-11-04 20:23:06
726.   Andrew Shimmin
San Diego is pro-chicken, anti-secret abortion.
2008-11-04 20:23:07
727.   Jacob Burch
Looks like chickens has a great shot at passing--Leading will with moderate/conservative precincts reporting.
2008-11-04 20:23:35
728.   KG16
719 - there is a ballot initiative out here dealing with the ethical treatment of farm animals.
2008-11-04 20:23:43
729.   Greg Brock
Arizona senators are outstanding at getting destroyed in presidential elections.
2008-11-04 20:25:03
730.   68elcamino427
I'm going to eat organic vegan food now.
2008-11-04 20:25:12
731.   El Lay Dave
729 It's because they weren't born in one of the actual states.
2008-11-04 20:25:42
732.   Eric Enders
On a national level, Arizona's given us the two best Interior Secretaries ever and that's about it.
2008-11-04 20:25:53
733.   KG16
729 - they are showing improvement though. three or four more tries and they might just get to 269
2008-11-04 20:26:40
734.   D4P
Obama pulls to within 5,000 in NC.
2008-11-04 20:27:20
735.   Andrew Shimmin
Salter can write.
2008-11-04 20:28:31
736.   El Lay Dave
For the first time, I will be older than the POTUS. First Julio Franco retires, now this.
2008-11-04 20:28:52
737.   KG16
why is every politician's best speech a concession speech?
2008-11-04 20:29:01
738.   Eric Enders
Very good speech by McCain. Disingenuous, but good.
2008-11-04 20:29:40
739.   Tripon
Obama's winning Montana somehow.
2008-11-04 20:30:00
740.   D4P
I never thought of puke greenish-yellow as a fashionable dress color.

And still don't.

2008-11-04 20:30:18
741.   Andrew Shimmin
The worst thing about this is that Meghan McCain's blog is out of material for good.
2008-11-04 20:30:25
742.   D4P
Most of the redneck, er, rural areas haven't been counted yet.
2008-11-04 20:30:38
743.   Indiana Jon
739 Unibombers are usually democrats.
2008-11-04 20:30:50
744.   KG16
739 - Ron Paul got on the ballot as an independent, he was expected to pull 5-7%. also, Montana does not like establishment guys - it went for Clinton in '92.
2008-11-04 20:31:34
745.   D4P
A Republican strategist on CNN just said that McCain was able to make the race "incredibly close".
2008-11-04 20:31:50
746.   Indiana Jon
McCain has pulled to within 1700 in Indiana. My election is not over yet.
2008-11-04 20:32:24
747.   Daniel Zappala
697 Take a look back at our country's history with respect to race, and then tell me that it's not glorious that we've overcome our past prejudices.
2008-11-04 20:33:08
748.   Daniel Zappala
Montana did elect a Democratic governor tonight.
2008-11-04 20:33:13
749.   Tripon
Sarah Palin is not talking for some reason, despite being next to McCain.

Acting like a petulant child isn't going to help her win in 2012.

2008-11-04 20:33:20
750.   D4P
Obama up 22,000 in NC.
Show/Hide Comments 751-800
2008-11-04 20:34:01
751.   Andrew Shimmin
749- VP candidates don't give the concession speech.
2008-11-04 20:36:43
752.   El Lay Dave
737 why is every politician's best speech a concession speech?
They don't have to promise anything.
2008-11-04 20:36:58
753.   D4P
The county I live in is currently at 76% for Obama.
2008-11-04 20:38:13
754.   das411
745 , what was the popular vote total again?
2008-11-04 20:39:47
755.   Tripon
So is Liberman's days of caucusing with Democrats over? I'm sure he pissed off a lot of his democratic fellows with his ecstatic support of McCain.
2008-11-04 20:40:30
756.   Andrew Shimmin
It's close because the 2 million vote edge he's going to get from California haven't been counted yet.
2008-11-04 20:41:34
757.   fanerman
754 I think ABC had it at 51/49 Obama.
2008-11-04 20:41:35
758.   Icaros
If I had a dollar for every popular vote Obama ends up with over McCain I'd be thrilled.
2008-11-04 20:42:12
759.   Eric Enders
755 Since he won't be a potential 60th Dem, they have every reason to kick him to the curb, and I expect they will.
2008-11-04 20:42:17
760.   Greg Brock
755 Lieberman is persona non grata. He's not welcome at functions anymore. But he'll continue to caucus with the Dems.

His is a lonely existence.

2008-11-04 20:44:00
761.   Andrew Shimmin
If they dump him, they won't be able to hold his committee chair over his head when they need his vote.
2008-11-04 20:44:27
762.   Tripon
Propositions Precincts reporting: 6.0 %

* 1A: High-speed rail Yes 48.4% No 51.6%
* 4: Abortion notification Yes 49.8% No 50.2%
* 8: Gay marriage ban Yes 54.4% No 45.6%

2008-11-04 20:45:25
763.   Andrew Shimmin
It's looking like a good night for the chickens. Lebensraum!
2008-11-04 20:47:16
764.   Icaros

And all the little girls who are about to get those hugging jobs.

2008-11-04 20:47:20
765.   Tripon,0,1293859.htmlstory

L.A. Times has up to date reporting on all the CA props.

2008-11-04 20:49:27
766.   Andrew Shimmin
764- It'll cheer them up after they find out that there aren't going to be any more children's hospitals.
2008-11-04 20:50:55
767.   BlueMamma
Ah, well - doesn't matter if prop 4 passes or not, now. FOCA, Obama's first law he'll sign (if he delivers on that promise) will sweep it away anyway.
2008-11-04 20:50:55
768.   Andrew Shimmin
MSNBC sent a web cam to Kenya.
2008-11-04 20:51:16
769.   Greg Brock
Marin County votes against Prop 8. That could really turn over the apple cart.
2008-11-04 20:53:14
770.   Tripon
I am surprised that prop 2 is being passed with a super majority.
2008-11-04 20:54:15
771.   StolenMonkey86
708 - I'm watching for Social Security to hit the tipping point. With the first baby boomers turing 65 in 2011, I predict Obama will try to push raising the amount of taxable income under SS by the end of his first 100 days, so that way he has a shot at making it to his second term before it's a complete disaster.
2008-11-04 20:54:50
772.   KG16
LA county is disappointing on Prop 8, but only 10% is in
2008-11-04 20:58:06
773.   LogikReader
Not to incinerate the thread BUT...

Prop 8 looks like its headed for a win. God help those who opposed it.

I feel like Prop 8 is a vote for discrimination, but that's only my opinion. Personally, it doesn't affect me either way.


Prop 1A, the train proposition, seems like a close race so far, but my guess is the people who voted no either

a) Fly often and could care less about train service
b) Feel that energy efficient/electric vehicles will take over by the time it is completed
c) Don't care to pay the extra taxes.

Any of those are valid reasons to oppose Prop 1A. I've really grown to love trains, especially light rail, so I voted YES. I think in a perfect world, I would not own a car and just use buses and trains, along with planes, to get where I need to go.


Barack Obama is on his way out! Senator Obama, COME ON DOWN!!

2008-11-04 20:58:14
774.   Greg Brock
It's a big night for decriminalizing and lowering the penalties for the yoda.
2008-11-04 21:01:45
775.   LogikReader

Ah, but the flip side is, Barack Obama can do just about anything and improve the State of the Union!

Kind of like when Bill Parcells takes over a fallen franchise, like, hmm... the Miami Dolphins?


I'm only 26, so I was wondering: When Reagan took over for Jimmy Carter, was America in a similar state of disarray? It seemed like it based on the inflation issues, the Iran Hostage Crisis, and so on.

2008-11-04 21:01:51
776.   Tripon
L.A. County supervisor, dist. 2 Precincts reporting: 7.0%

* Parks 39.0%
* Ridley-Thomas 61.0%

I'll only note this race because they ran some of the crappiest ads I ever seen. I'll be happy if both of them were ran over by a bus tomorrow. However, I will say that Parks is probably still paying for RAMPART.

2008-11-04 21:02:34
777.   Bob Timmermann
CA reports its absentee ballots first and those historically have run to the conservative side.

I think the Prop 8 vote will end up being very close.

2008-11-04 21:04:40
778.   Eric Stephen
Just to join the party here and get this on Greg's Brock official record, I voted for Obama (the 2nd victorious President I have voted for in 4 tries...all Democrats).

I voted for 1A (like the idea of building's a long term investment)

I voted against 2, 4, and 8, for many of the same reasons said here today.

I hope Obama gets around to thanking David Palmer in his speech soon. :)

2008-11-04 21:04:46
779.   El Lay Dave
773 I called Prop 8 "an abomination" back in the double-digit comments - the thread has survived that nicely, as well as a Prop 4 discussion.
2008-11-04 21:05:48
780.   Bob Timmermann
In 1980, there was some incredible inflation. And the economy was going nowhere. And the U.S. looked like it was getting pushed around by Iran.

People weren't happy. And Jimmy Carter had intimated that it was the people's fault because there was a national malaise.

It was not a time when the country was bristling with optimism.

2008-11-04 21:06:46
781.   Bob Timmermann
I just hope that Barack Obama doesn't shake the hand of any woman who looks like Mia Kirshner.
2008-11-04 21:07:03
782.   Eric Enders
773 "Prop 8 looks like its headed for a win. God help those who opposed it."

Frankly, they aren't the ones who'll need His help.

2008-11-04 21:07:23
783.   Eric Stephen
Worse than watching the 2005 Dodgers?
2008-11-04 21:09:01
784.   Eric Stephen
If I have ever have a chance to meet Ms. Kirshner, I have vowed to avoid shaking her hand.
2008-11-04 21:09:07
785.   Andrew Shimmin
781- Racist.
2008-11-04 21:10:22
786.   Jacob Burch
782 Wait, I'm confused on his stance on 8. God help those who opposed help them get it to pass? Or help them "see the light?"
2008-11-04 21:11:09
787.   Greg Brock
I loathe the initiative system, so root for whatever may eventually lead to it's elimination.

Maybe I can get an initiative on the ballot to eliminate propositions.

2008-11-04 21:12:29
788.   Eric Stephen
Because I am a man of spite, I was determined to vote against a woman running for City Council in San Diego just because her campaign has called me 4 times in a week. However, after reviewing the candidates last night I decided to vote for her since I thought she was the best candidate.

Then I saw her after I voted, standing on the corner by my work, campaigning to passersby in the rain with no umbrella. I thought that was pretty hardcore, and was proud of my vote. :)

2008-11-04 21:13:45
789.   Eric Stephen
I viewed it as the latter since he also said he viewed a yes vote as a vote for discrimination.
2008-11-04 21:14:05
790.   Bob Timmermann
I will stand with you outside any Target or Wal-Mart at anytime to help you get that on the ballot.

The U.S. Constitution requires enormous hurdles to get amended. The CA Constitution can be amended by just waving a clipboard at somebody at the supermarket.

That's not what Hiram Johnson had in mind.

2008-11-04 21:14:13
791.   KG16
787 - Brock, i am more than willing to join your crusade. preach on, good sir, preach on.
2008-11-04 21:14:23
792.   El Lay Dave
787 I definitely resonate with Ken Arneson's point about a mere 50% of the vote on an initiative is enough to change the constitution of the state of California, which is horrible anyway. Awful.

In a state that includes Hollywood, you'd think we could get the state constitution a decent rewrite by now.

2008-11-04 21:14:59
793.   LogikReader
782 786

LOL. I meant God help those who voted NO. Although by "God" I mean your deity of choice, if applicable.

I may have confused myself.

2008-11-04 21:15:38
794.   Greg Brock
The "repeating what the politician says" thing is corny.
2008-11-04 21:15:44
795.   KG16
wow, Prop 4 being rejected by 220 votes as of 9:11 pm
2008-11-04 21:16:00
796.   Indiana Jon
He sounds more like a preacher than a president.
2008-11-04 21:16:04
797.   Xeifrank
Looks like people atleast came to their senses on Prop 8, as it's down 54-46, with only the immediate Bay area counties voting against it. This is the 2nd time we voted for something like this, hopefully the courts can't overrule it again. Not only do the majority of people feel that marriage is between 1-man and 1-woman, not 1m/1m, 1w/1w, or 1m/2w, but it's a backlash against the liberal judges and the in your face attitude of the SF mayor when these rogue judges overruled the will of the people.
vr, Xei
2008-11-04 21:16:26
798.   D4P
Has anyone called NC or IN yet? I'm tired of waiting.
2008-11-04 21:16:40
799.   Jacob Burch
793 I guess I'm saying someone who was pro-Prop 8 would also tell no voters for God to Help them. Ah well!

This LA times map is really well done. Kudos to them.

2008-11-04 21:17:30
800.   Greg Brock
790 Monumental change is supposed to take massive consensus. Not a simple majority.

The simple majority is never, ever supposed to change the rule of law.

I read that in a book once. In the third grade, I think.

Show/Hide Comments 801-850
2008-11-04 21:17:35
801.   Indiana Jon
798 Not IN, but it's looking like Obama.
2008-11-04 21:17:52
802.   Bob Timmermann
The courts overruled Prop 22 because it was a statute and they can do such a thing. Prop 8 is a constitutional amendment, so it requires a much bigger hurdle to overcome. In fact, it would be pretty hard to overturn.
2008-11-04 21:17:57
803.   KG16
797 - some things should not be left to majorities.
2008-11-04 21:19:01
804.   Andrew Shimmin
What has the legislature ever done for chickens? The chickens need us, and you lot want to abandon them to bureaucrats who only care about their per diem and whether they can get a driver for their state leased Escalades.
2008-11-04 21:19:55
805.   Eric Stephen
Yeah, something doesn't seem right about the ease with which the CA constitution can be changed. I voted no on anything that would change the CA constitution with merely a 50% vote.

Also, regarding all the initiatives in CA, it speaks to an incompetence of the state legislature to get anything done. Money for hospitals, roads, police and firefighters? Why are we voting on this? Isn't that what our state legislators are elected to do? Maybe we can balance the state budget by eliminating their salaries and just vote statewide on every issue.

2008-11-04 21:19:59
806.   El Lay Dave
797 I very respectfully object to the implication that I am lacking sense for voting no on 8.

The "will of the people" used to be in favor of a lot of things we find pretty heinous today. I weep at the propspective passage of proposition h-eight.

2008-11-04 21:20:03
807.   KG16
802 - well, there's still the Due Process Clause and the Equal Protection Clause of the 14th Amendment to the Federal Constitution. Making this a federal question is not going to go well for those opposed to gay marriage, precedent tends to run against them.
2008-11-04 21:20:08
808.   Bob Timmermann
Missouri could take a long time to get results. The St. Louis bureau of the Griddle reported that there were seven hour waits at some polls in the Mound City.
2008-11-04 21:20:18
809.   Greg Brock
Jesse Jackson has been crying for two hours.
2008-11-04 21:21:08
810.   Jacob Burch
803 No kidding.
2008-11-04 21:21:24
811.   Andrew Shimmin
I demand that D4P go on the record with his thoughts on Mrs. Obama's dress.
2008-11-04 21:22:49
812.   Andrew Shimmin
Or is she the First Lady Elect?
2008-11-04 21:22:59
813.   Eric Stephen
He probably just got hit with another paternity suit or something.
2008-11-04 21:23:14
814.   KG16
I'm watching Obama's speech on delay, the part about all the things the 109 year old woman has seen would be better if he didn't say "yes we can" after every event. otherwise, damn, this is what an eloquent president sounds like, huh?


2008-11-04 21:23:53
815.   Eric Stephen
Michelle Obama's brother should have been wearing Oregon State gear.
2008-11-04 21:24:25
816.   Andrew Shimmin
814- The singer has been outdistancing the song for the last four years.
2008-11-04 21:24:27
817.   Jacob Burch
806 ELD, I was wondering your take on a few things--what you've said really meshes with the way my mind works, but I bet you're slightly more right than me (if not more!) on some things, so I really would love to hear on:
2008-11-04 21:24:35
818.   Greg Brock
803 When should a simple majority ever decide anything other than its legislative officials?

In fact, I'd be willing to give the senate back to the state legislatures. I'd prefer it.

2008-11-04 21:24:35
819.   Xeifrank
Did Florida pass their Gay Marriage ban too?
vr, Xei
2008-11-04 21:25:49
820.   KG16
819 - it was leading in Florida, and has lost in Arizona. not sure about the other states.
2008-11-04 21:26:20
821.   Andrew Shimmin
His 2004 convention speech was terrific. It's better than anything he's said since. I don't know why he switched writers, or why he didn't switch again, but it's going to be irritating if he doesn't bring in somebody who can write. Soon. The inauguration is just around the corner!
2008-11-04 21:26:41
822.   Jacob Burch
819 Last I checked. Alabama also isn't letting gays adopt.

Kudos, I guess.

2008-11-04 21:26:49
823.   Bob Timmermann
Measure 2 in Florida is passing with 62% of the vote.
2008-11-04 21:27:29
824.   Andrew Shimmin
818- Would I trade Willie Brown for Barbara Boxer? I believe I would!
2008-11-04 21:27:54
825.   KG16
818 - i go back and forth on direct election of senators.

can we also package this stuff with a repeal of legislative term limits?

2008-11-04 21:28:00
826.   Bob Timmermann
I think people should note that on Prop 8, San Francisco hasn't reported any results yet.
2008-11-04 21:28:14
827.   Jacob Burch
820 Pretty darn sure it passed in Ari.
2008-11-04 21:29:03
828.   KG16
826 - and with 10% of LA County in, I'm guessing that's not Hollywood and Long Beach.
2008-11-04 21:30:24
829.   Greg Brock
825 If you're looking for a guy that wants to roll back every electoral change of the progressive era, I'm your man.

"The people" is a fierce beast.

2008-11-04 21:31:47
830.   KG16
when the age of KG comes, Brock shall be at the right hand.
2008-11-04 21:32:56
831.   KG16
Missouri looks to lose it's bellwether status tonight.
2008-11-04 21:33:39
832.   Greg Brock
The recession of the GOP into a regional, religious party is almost complete. Whether they like it or not, some serious platform changes are going to be necessary.
2008-11-04 21:33:49
833.   fanerman
People are cheering and honking their horns in Berkeley.
2008-11-04 21:34:12
834.   Bob Timmermann
So you want to take the franchise away from women?
2008-11-04 21:34:34
835.   KG16
i wonder if the GOP is going to become an American version of the Christian Democrats. if they do, where do the libertarians among the coalition go?
2008-11-04 21:35:47
836.   Greg Brock
834 I didn't say that. I didn't not say that, but I didn't say that.

I'm not sure I'm for universal white male suffrage at this point, so it's not a sexist thing.

2008-11-04 21:36:47
837.   Greg Brock
835 The New Whigs.

Keep laughing...

{rubs hands together menacingly}

2008-11-04 21:37:06
838.   KG16
exit polls show that Prop 8 failed 52-48

don't know if it means anything.

2008-11-04 21:37:08
839.   oshea2002
815 - would have made for a good recruiting tool.
2008-11-04 21:38:26
840.   Ghost of Carlos Perez
When do they expect to have results on Proposition 8? The more I think about it, the more I feel strongly about yes on 8 (of course, I don't live in CA anymore, so my opinion did not count there).
2008-11-04 21:38:43
841.   Greg Brock
I hope John Edwards isn't sitting by the phone waiting for an AG appointment.
2008-11-04 21:38:45
842.   El Lay Dave
817 Sometimes left, sometimes right - helps keep things balanced.

1A - I voted no; not convinced that high-speed rail from SF to LA is going to solve that many problems, nor that our state gov't will prevent it from becoming a huge boondoggle.

4 - I voted no, but this was a difficult issue. My daughter is 19 now, but when she was a juvenile, I had to ok the most minor medical procedures, but not even be informed about abortion or birth control prescriptions - this seems weird+++. On the other hand, proponents could not convince me this was a good law, plus the 48-hour waiting period seemed like an ugly tack-on. My wife is an R.N., OBGYN specialty, and she tells me stories that make my hair stand on end - on all parts of the spectrum.

+++ I can't remember, but I think that's only from the age of consent and up.

2008-11-04 21:39:34
843.   KG16
840 - some time after midnight since it's going to be close.
2008-11-04 21:39:50
844.   fanerman
837 Trust me I'm not laughing.
2008-11-04 21:41:50
845.   KG16
I am happy, however, to see that Prop 11 (redistricting) is on its way to passage.
2008-11-04 21:42:03
846.   Eric Stephen
Meanwhile, the "Crossing Over" John Edwards anxiously waits by a pay phone outside of a Circle K somewhere in middle America, wondering how it all went wrong.
2008-11-04 21:43:14
847.   Greg Brock
Most of the moderates in the GOP have pretty much jumped ship already. There is a whole swath of libertarian-minded Goldwater types that would never dream of voting Republican. They dislike the brand.
2008-11-04 21:43:26
848.   oshea2002
841, 846, LOL
2008-11-04 21:43:46
849.   KG16
846 - that's easy, he pissed off the South Park guys and was named biggest douche in the universe.
2008-11-04 21:45:24
850.   KG16
i'm going to be very interested in the Right's internal debate, mainly because i know so many within the conservative movement.
Show/Hide Comments 851-900
2008-11-04 21:47:47
851.   Greg Brock
850 Well, the Jonah Goldberg types will try to blame this on the press. The Ross Douthat crowd will try to turn the GOP into Huckabee economic populists. The Buckley crowd has given up. The Buchanan types already think the nation is Rome, circa 410.
2008-11-04 21:48:24
852.   Eric Stephen
I voted no on Prop 11, but I was torn on that one. It seemed to me -- a very simplistic view, I admit -- to complicate the redistricting process, as well as put the responsibility into the hands of fewer people.
2008-11-04 21:48:33
853.   Andrew Shimmin
It's been a big night for gangster chalk stripe suits, I notice. And mostly on white guys. Is that a trend?
2008-11-04 21:50:22
854.   Bob Timmermann
82% of the electorate in L.A. County voted.

I liked it so much better when I was the only person doing it.

2008-11-04 21:52:25
855.   KG16
851 - yeah, i know. i think i fall somewhere between Buckley and Goldwater, but i don't want to give up just yet. instead, i'll just grab that bottle of cuban rum i have on the shelf.

852 - the only reason i voted for it is because i believe we need more competitive districts in the legislature and the congress. legislators are more interested in drawing lost of safe seats.

2008-11-04 21:53:31
856.   Greg Brock
If Obama's first moves are FOCA and taxes, he learned nothing from Clinton's first two years.

Come out of the box with your base's pet projects and the moderates can swing right back. '94 was not that long ago.

2008-11-04 21:54:13
857.   Andrew Shimmin
Isn't card check supposed to be first?
2008-11-04 21:55:04
858.   Eric Stephen
Someone in my office told me he voted for a congressman simply because the candidate had a hot daughter.
2008-11-04 21:57:27
859.   KG16
i voted for as many different parties as possible. which sadly, in my district, was three. one republican, one democrat, two libertarians.
2008-11-04 21:57:37
860.   Jacob Burch
856 Agreed, but I wouldn't mind a sacrifice-driven (cuts in spending and tax thoughts) plan to get rid of the deficit being the top priority. Obviously, talking about increasing taxes isn't the way to win people over, but don't we sort of need to patch up the eight years boo boos?
2008-11-04 21:58:15
861.   Eric Stephen
Did anyone take advantage of voting freebies today? I enjoyed a 12-ounce decaf from Starbucks and a free Chick-fil-A chicken sandwich.
2008-11-04 22:00:28
862.   Bob Timmermann
Those are supposed to be illegal. When I went to Starbucks and asked for a tall drip coffee, I was told to pony up $1.60.
2008-11-04 22:02:20
863.   Eric Stephen
They didn't ask for my sticker. I heard they offered the free coffee to everyone, if the customer asked.
2008-11-04 22:03:16
864.   Icaros
I was wondering how California could be firmly for Obama but possibly for Prop 8. Who votes for Obama and also for Prop 8? But the CNN article about the exit polls seems to tell the story.
2008-11-04 22:03:17
865.   Bob Timmermann
That's what I tried! And they wouldn't give me free coffee.

They don't know about my obelisk.

2008-11-04 22:08:48
866.   Eric Stephen
They probably figured, "Hey, this is the guy that paid us an extra $20. He'll pay anything!"
2008-11-04 22:08:58
867.   Bob Timmermann
Looks like the only county in CA that hasn't turned in any results is Mono.

There must be shenanigans going on in Bridgeport.

2008-11-04 22:11:00
868.   das411
858 , are you sure you weren't thinking about this?

2008-11-04 22:12:45
869.   Icaros
I haved lived in these CA counties:

Los Angeles
San Francisco

We also had a vacation home for awhile in Calaveras. And I used to work in Marin.

Is anyone more of a CA county whore than me?

2008-11-04 22:13:12
870.   Greg Brock
860 If he's smart, he'll just let the tax cuts expire in 2010. He doesn't have to do anything. Don't scare Wall Street, either.

I say this without judgment on the tax issue. Merely as an observer and fan of realpolitik.

I also have a recession-proof job, so I'm not sweating it, no matter what happens.

I got my free coffee

864 The African-Americans in my class, and my African-American friends, and liberal Catholic friends are all for Prop 8.

Civil rights for some, tiny American flags for others.

2008-11-04 22:13:48
871.   Ken Arneson
If the presidential election were close, we'd all be sweating Montana right now, where with 56% of the vote in, McCain leads Obama by 27 votes.
2008-11-04 22:14:28
872.   Bob Timmermann
Nobody lives in Plumas County!
2008-11-04 22:15:52
873.   Icaros

Yes, that's it, and I hadn't thought of the liberal Catholics. Are there a lot of those?

2008-11-04 22:17:10
874.   Icaros

I did, in the first grade. The backyard was a forest. We were even snowed in!

2008-11-04 22:17:35
875.   Bob Timmermann
I'm a liberal Catholic and I opposed Prop 8.

Small sample size warning.

2008-11-04 22:17:36
876.   KG16
869 - I've only lived in 2 counties, but i have slept in many more. i think that makes me a different kind of county whore.
2008-11-04 22:19:14
877.   Bob Timmermann
I would be more impressed if somebody here said they had lived in either Modoc or Alpine Counties.
2008-11-04 22:20:12
878.   Icaros

Don't worry, I would never use you as an example of typical.

2008-11-04 22:20:40
879.   Greg Brock
873 I know a lot of Catholics that attend church and vote universally Democratic. There's a whole state full of them in New England.
2008-11-04 22:21:13
880.   Icaros

My dad owns some nearly worthless, undeveloped land in Modoc!

2008-11-04 22:21:41
881.   fanerman
875 Cool. I kind of am, too. I also opposed Prop 8.
2008-11-04 22:22:18
882.   Bob Timmermann
You know what liberal Catholics really dislike?

Notre Dame University.

2008-11-04 22:22:36
883.   KG16
879 - yes, but those people also do crazy things like root for the Red Sox, Patriots, and Celtics.
2008-11-04 22:23:03
884.   Eric Stephen
On this we can almost all agree*.

*Sorry, Indiana Jon.

2008-11-04 22:23:19
885.   Icaros
Amy Holmes is cuter than cute.
2008-11-04 22:24:33
886.   KG16
it's really a shame that Bill Richardson was so terrible in the primaries. i kind of would have liked him as a veep.
2008-11-04 22:25:30
887.   Eric Stephen
She's like a younger Cheryl Miller.
2008-11-04 22:26:10
888.   fanerman
Is it safe to "call" this thread pretty successful?
2008-11-04 22:26:14
889.   LogikReader

As a member of the Centrist Catholics, I also agree!

2008-11-04 22:26:36
890.   Greg Brock
I've been shocked by the number of friends I have that were for 8 (people I thought were very libertarian), and shocked by the number of friends I thought were anti-gay that were against it.

Being against gay marriage, in the long term, is a losing issue anyways. I don't doubt that it will be legal in most states within the next 20 years.

2008-11-04 22:27:34
891.   Bob Timmermann
Notre Dame takes on Boston College Saturday in the battle to see which brand of Catholicism God likes best.
2008-11-04 22:29:21
892.   Icaros

Oh come on, I'm not convinced that Cheryl and Reggie were even born on Earth.

I just want to take care of Amy and bring her water and stuff. She was born in Zambia. I wonder how many other white-mothered, African-fathered Americans voted against Obama today.

2008-11-04 22:30:56
893.   Eric Stephen
I avoided this thread like the plague earlier today because I feared the worst. However, I underestimated the fine group of posters here at the Toaster, many of whom I have met.

Regardless of everyone's opinions, the tone has been remarkably respectful, and I should have expected as such.

Kudos to Ken Arneson for setting the standard of conduct here, and kudos to everyone else for voting.

2008-11-04 22:32:47
894.   Greg Brock
Bill Richardson will head State or Homeland Security. He can have whatever the hell he wants.

I want to see what happens with Jane Harmon. She's paid her dues in the House for a long time. I wouldn't be surprised if she gets to run the CIA.

Jim Webb is the real question. Is he manageable enough to get a good gig?

2008-11-04 22:33:25
895.   Eric Stephen
I didn't mean that as a slight on Holmes. I'm a fan of 'fro Cheryl.

Of the CNN crew, I'm more of a Soledad O'Brien fan myself.

2008-11-04 22:34:26
896.   Icaros

You're going to have to fight Shimmin and his magic pens of death for Soledad.

2008-11-04 22:35:58
897.   Greg Brock
Gates will stay at Defense.
Kerry at AG

I want to see who will be chief of staff. That's the job you give the guy you really feel is the smartest.

Chief of Staff was the captain of Academic Decathlon in high school.

2008-11-04 22:36:01
898.   Eric Stephen
I'll bring a sword so the world can finally have an answer to the age old question/myth.
2008-11-04 22:36:02
899.   Andrew Shimmin
890- Sooner if we quit paying for free pills for old people.
2008-11-04 22:38:05
900.   KG16
Emmanuel is going to be chief of staff.
i have no problem with richardson at State, i'd prefer to see homeland security broken up.
i've heard Harman as head of the CIA. that's intriguing
Show/Hide Comments 901-950
2008-11-04 22:38:15
901.   Icaros

I hope Xei will run some projections for that duel.

2008-11-04 22:39:15
902.   Eric Stephen
The Florida gay marriage ban is passing 62/38, with 98% of the precincts reporting, yet CNN hasn't yet projected a winner. Perhaps still gun shy from projecting the state in 2000?
2008-11-04 22:39:17
903.   KG16
i don't think Webb gets a job. and i'm not sure about Kerry at the DOJ.
2008-11-04 22:39:30
904.   fanerman
"You got a best friend?"
"Yes, sir."
"Is he smarter than you?"
"Yes sir."
"Would you trust him with your life?"
"Yes sir."
"That's your chief of staff."
2008-11-04 22:40:19
905.   KG16
what's going on in LA county that only 10% is still in?
2008-11-04 22:40:45
906.   KG16
904 - i was just thinking of that scene
2008-11-04 22:42:53
907.   KG16
heh, Howard Fineman is saying that Emmanuel is going to take the Chief of Staff job.
2008-11-04 22:43:44
908.   Greg Brock
I wince at the idea of Rahm Emmanuel as chief of staff. He's an imminently capable and very smart guy, but he's also a bit of a dick. On second thought, that's the perfect chief of staff. But I hope he doesn't get it. Not a fan on a visceral level. He's also unbelievably smug.
2008-11-04 22:44:06
909.   Bob Timmermann
L.A. County has a LOT of votes. Also the County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk's site reports 16% of the votes in.

L.A. County will have more votes than many other states.

2008-11-04 22:45:57
910.   Bob Timmermann
For Prop 8, L.A. County is up to 23% of the votes in and it leads in the county by a 55-45 margin.
2008-11-04 22:47:12
911.   Greg Brock
907 Well, that bothers me.

No matter the party, I have an intense dislike for party apparatchik. Emmanuel seems like the kind of guy savvy enough to survive a Stalin party purge.

Obama is supposed to be above hiring apparatchik. The New Politcs and all.

2008-11-04 22:48:49
912.   Icaros
I would also guess that a sizeable amount of Latinos voted for Obama and Prop 8.
2008-11-04 22:49:55
913.   Greg Brock
Paul Volcker at Treasury is, on a historical level, hilarious.

Obama hiring RONALD REAGAN's Fed Chairman is pretty...Um...Counter intuitive.

2008-11-04 22:52:05
914.   Greg Brock
912 Catholics, man. I heard the Archbishop of Kansas City calling Prop 8 "A vote against Christ."

Bob's people. Let's not let him forget it.

Thanks, Bob.

2008-11-04 22:55:47
915.   KG16
uh, 1A has pulled ahead.
2008-11-04 22:56:43
916.   bhsportsguy
900 comments, you would have thought the Dodgers traded for Manny Ramirez or something.

I am not surprised that Prop 8 is winning, many don't see it as discrimination issue and others are still uncomfortable with the idea of gay marriage.

2008-11-04 22:57:16
917.   fanerman
915 Go high speed rail!
2008-11-04 22:57:55
918.   Andrew Shimmin
How do men get outvoted by women in Alaska?
2008-11-04 22:59:13
919.   KG16
918 - is it hunting season?
2008-11-04 23:01:26
920.   Greg Brock
The Prop 8 vote also shows that people are a lot more comfortable professing support for marriage equality in polls than they are in the ballot box.

The Bradley/Wilder effect needs a new name. A more gay name. The Graham Norton effect? The Larry Craig effect? The Johnny Mathis effect?

The Clay Aiken effect?

2008-11-04 23:01:27
921.   Xeifrank
Prop 8 still holding it's 225,000 vote lead. CNN doesn't think it passed. Might be a late night wait on this one.
vr, Xei
2008-11-04 23:03:43
922.   Icaros
My Comedy Central isn't showing/didn't show the Stewart/Colbert Special.
2008-11-04 23:05:57
923.   Eric Stephen
The wrecks-n-effect?
2008-11-04 23:06:30
924.   Icaros
Oh, it was on at 7:00? My guide is showing a replay at 10 and 11, and all I'm getting is old South Park.
2008-11-04 23:08:32
925.   KG16
damn, we're sending Gary Miller back to Congress. sorry folks.
2008-11-04 23:09:14
926.   KG16
not that i wasn't expecting Gary Miller to be re-elected by a 2-1 vote. might as well be a central american dictator with his job security.
2008-11-04 23:10:45
927.   Eric Stephen
He should never have wizzed off that building onto a cop in Cleveland.

Oh, different Gary Miller?

2008-11-04 23:12:19
928.   KG16
xkcd is summing up my feelings pretty well right now. particularly the scroll over.
2008-11-04 23:12:49
929.   KG16
927 - actually, as corrupt as this guy is, probably the same one.
2008-11-04 23:16:27
930.   KG16
the stewart/colbert show is now on.
2008-11-04 23:18:12
931.   Marty
I'm a very happy man tonight. Though I worry about Prop 8. Man, I can't stand religion.
2008-11-04 23:20:34
932.   Xeifrank
931. Why can't you stand religion? Is it because many religious people are voting YES on Proposition 8? If you look at the demographics, it's also being heavily supported by both the African-American and Latino communities. Can you stand them?
vr, Xei
2008-11-04 23:21:18
933.   Jacob Burch
931 With the way the counties are reporting, I can't see it losing now. LA is too consistently Yes with already 23% reporting, we've already spent San Fran. I'm overly depressed now.
2008-11-04 23:22:57
934.   BlueMamma
The real problem with prop 8 is that "a union between one man and one women" is not a definition of marriage at all - it's a definition of sex. Anyone hoping to preserve the sanctity of marriage by voting yes on prop 8 missed the boat generations ago.

This from one who supports prop 8 - because I'm afraid I could get into legal trouble for refusing to participate in a same-sex wedding ceremony (I'm a Catholic, and an organist in reasonably high demand in my county) if it were to fail.

2008-11-04 23:23:42
935.   Marty
I don't mind the people, I just think religion is the root of almost all evils. It's a sore point for me.
2008-11-04 23:23:43
936.   Greg Brock
I really had no idea how much the idea of gay people getting married bothered people.

I wonder how many protectors of traditional marriage realize the historical nature of marriage and familial relations. The natural state of marriage, for a thousand years, was one man and multiple wives.

That popes held concubines. That the genius of the Sistine Chapel, and it's depiction of creation, was created by a homosexual.

Gayness really scares people, I guess. Maybe their children will catch the gay.

Thankfully, when I'm 70 years old and ready to die off, gays will have the right to marry. This issue will be an anathema to my grandchildren. As miscegenation laws are to us

Prop 8 may fail, but the fight for equal protection will ultimately succeed, and discrimination against gays will fall into the ash heap of history.

It must suck to realize that a victory against gay marriage is temporal. Enjoy it...It won't last very long.

2008-11-04 23:24:58
937.   bhsportsguy
Unfortunately for tonight, San Francisco is not the largest city/county in state. With close to 98% of their polls reported, Prop 8 is losing almost 3-1 but they need Alameda and Contra Costa counties to come in big in the "No" side too.

The "No" side also needs LA to at least move closer to their side or there is no hope.

2008-11-04 23:25:01
938.   Jacob Burch
932 I'm sure it was said mostly tongue-in-cheek, and it spurs from that people would mix their own personal belief with civil rights. People are voting yes because of their religious beliefs carrying over.

This coming from a very religious person, for what it's worth. But it's fallacious to try and compare his comment to other trends, as they're not directly causal.

2008-11-04 23:25:10
939.   KG16
934 - you would not get in trouble for refusing to participate in a same-sex wedding. just as the catholic church need not conduct a wedding for me (a former Catholic) and a girl who happens to be Muslim. this is one of the misconceptions that really annoyed me. there is a difference between religious marriage and civil marriage.
2008-11-04 23:26:54
940.   Jacob Burch
939 Absolutely. Any tall tale about Church's being "forced" into these things I can strike down fairly quickly. It just really, really, really isn't true.
2008-11-04 23:27:16
941.   Marty
Really, the whole thing with gay marriage should boil down to this: Who cares? It's none of anyone's business.
2008-11-04 23:29:07
942.   Jacob Burch
936 The thing about Gay Marriage that I love is even my closer-to-libertarian friends (which I think you are, given what's been said so far?) and I can really, really get behind it. Great thoughts on it.

This has been really fun. A lot of my stances on a few things I've been really challenging--more or less staying the same, but trying to deal with my fiscal moderateness, and decide what I really like, and where do I draw the line of government accountability and trust for them to do the best for the welfare of the nation.

2008-11-04 23:30:06
943.   KG16
HAH! there's a commercial on for some spyware program on right now, the first two computers they showed were macs. but the screen on one was windows, along with the blue screen of death.

that is funny to me.

2008-11-04 23:31:44
944.   Jacob Burch
Though it's true that overtime things will come through, "Justice Prevailed..."

I may have to reread the letter to Birmingham tonight. Of all "obvious" heroes out there, MLK rates skies and skies above most every else for me, as a thinker, speaker and as a writer.

2008-11-04 23:33:15
945.   Andrew Shimmin
On the bright side, we'd get to vote in the right direction, next time. Yes means pro, no means against.
2008-11-04 23:34:13
946.   Andrew Shimmin
78 vote margin in the Minnesota Senate election, with 94% reporting.
2008-11-04 23:35:05
947.   KG16
so, who's ready to join me in writing a new California Constitution?

Bob, Brock, you're in charge of gathering signatures.

2008-11-04 23:36:24
948.   Xeifrank
FWIW, I don't think the SF State Supreme Court and the mayor of SF helped sway people towards the No on 8 side. I think a lot of people were pissed off when Prop 22 was overturned by the SF courts. The winning margin could indeed be from the backlash vote.
vr, Xei
2008-11-04 23:38:44
949.   Andrew Shimmin
946- That was short lived; it's up to 1,200 now.
2008-11-04 23:41:35
950.   Jacob Burch
How dare judges decide what is and is not constitutional. I've never heard of such a thing.

And I'm in KG. I was also thinking of that earlier--how on earth could a country that 48% always prefers the status quo every clean up entire documents that desperately need it, without some dire circumstance.

I'd be in there fighting for the social programs I deeply care about, probably getting guff from you KG and Greg :)

Show/Hide Comments 951-1000
2008-11-04 23:42:36
951.   Greg Brock
947 I'm much more in favor of a new constitutional convention.

I love the Constitution...I believe it to be the ultimate fulfillment of Enlightenment ideals, but I think, after 200 years, it's time to rewrite the thing.

Larry Sabatow, my legal and spiritual mentor, has long advocated a re-writing of the Constitution. I think it's time for a new one.

I think a new Constitutional Convention would be awesome.

2008-11-04 23:42:54
952.   bhsportsguy
Its interesting, when you first look at the California Presidential election vote on the state map, it looks like the usual coastal counties voting for the Democrat while the inland counties are voting Republican.

But Obama is only losing Orange County by 6 or so points, he's barely losing Riverside, Fresno and San Berdoo

2008-11-04 23:47:15
953.   Xeifrank
How dare activist judges try to legislate.
2008-11-04 23:47:30
954.   bhsportsguy
I blame John Marshall for this. Judicial Review, what was he smoking?
2008-11-04 23:49:32
955.   Ken Arneson
939 Prop 8 is close enough that if you provide some explicit exemptions that say (a) religious organizations are except from performing or supporting gay marriage ceremonies, and (b) gay marriage is not to be discussed in schools, then they probably could flip enough votes to win back the right to marry.

Of course, now that a gay marriage ban is in the constitution, Prop 8 proponents will probably now spend millions to immediately enact my proposal to make constitution changes require a 2/3 majority.

2008-11-04 23:49:43
956.   Jacob Burch
953 A bill was passed. It denies rights. It was revoked What would you like judicial review to be? It is not up to the people of the state to deny rights entitled to them, and even if a majority of the voting electorate want it, it's something they shouldn't get.
2008-11-04 23:55:35
957.   bhsportsguy
On a new topic, maybe someone said it already but Buck O'Neal would have liked Michelle Obama's dress, maybe a little more red.
2008-11-04 23:56:04
958.   Greg Brock
953 It's a cute statement, but I'm not sure you have any idea what that means.

Activist judges ended school segregation. Would you argue that Brown was a bad thing?

You only dislike activist judges when they are active against your moral/religious/political interests.

2008-11-05 00:00:54
959.   Andrew Shimmin
Is there anybody who thinks it wouldn't have been better if the legislature had passed a bill recognizing same sex marriage, than having the California supreme court decide that the right had been hiding in the constitution for a hundred and thirty years without anyone's having noticed it?

How big a majority do the Democrats in this state need before they sack up a tiny little bit, anyway? The California Republican party isn't going to get more dead. Jesus, did you see who they ran in the last Senate race?

2008-11-05 00:01:19
960.   Jacob Burch
946 Franken is now up about a 1,000

And before I go any further, I'm in a calm mood because I'm having pizza, but I know that may not stay, so while I am: as I think you know Xei, I deeply respect you and find you one of the most valuable dudes on DT, and by no means think less of you for anything we've argued over. Anything heated said is just my convictions getting the best of me.

Greg and KG (and anyone else), how do you feel about certain social programs? Are they always a bad idea? Where do you draw the lines? My devotion towards public education (both a complete re-doing of how it works, which I could write forever and ever about) and devotion of funds and an opening of who gets access to great education are, bar none, my #1 political priority.* What about health care? Pension plans? Parks/Rec services? These are things that I in theory support, but would love to hear you guys' opinion on it.

* - With issues that I feel deny undeniable civil rights being an exception, but I look forward to the day where these don't come up on a direct vote.

2008-11-05 00:04:19
961.   bhsportsguy
Another thing I have learned, Nate Silver may not always get his Pecota numbers right but darn if he didn't nail this election.
2008-11-05 00:04:45
962.   Greg Brock
In Xeifrank's world, the best branch of government is the one that reinforces our religious and social beliefs.

Tell me how I can accomplish my goals, and I'll tell you which branch is best.

The legislature is obviously the worst, unless my political allies dominate it. The presidency should be supreme...Unless the other party controls it.

I like the branch of government that enforces my beliefs.

2008-11-05 00:05:52
963.   bhsportsguy
Another thing I have learned, Nate Silver may not always get his Pecota numbers right but darn if he didn't nail this election.
2008-11-05 00:18:17
964.   El Lay Dave
959 Good points. Ah, yes, the wonderfully named Dick Mountjoy, older then (74) than McCain is now, even older than the somewhat elderly Feinstein, propped up as a candidate only because several other (e.g., Matt Fong) declined to run.
2008-11-05 00:25:45
965.   El Lay Dave
The Catholic Church isn't being forced now to marry anyone, why would that start to happen if Prop 8 didn't pass, when not passing means no change to current law? The state can't force the Church to marry homosexuals any more than it could force the Church to ordain women as priests.
2008-11-05 00:29:07
966.   Andrew Shimmin
The California legislature is like the Windsor family, but less fun.
2008-11-05 00:32:48
967.   Andrew Shimmin
344 vote margin in Minnesota. I still haven't decided whether it would be funny enough for Alaska to reelect a convicted dirty senator for me to root for that. Pretty funny, definitely, but I'm not sure it would be funny enough.

Oops, Coleman just went up by 1600. I bet there's a recount.

2008-11-05 00:49:07
968.   Jacob Burch
967 And now Franken by 3k, wacky stuff.
2008-11-05 01:51:03
969.   Ken Arneson
99% precincts in, Coleman up 890 votes.

In Alaska, they're about to re-elect a convicted felon to the Senate.

2008-11-05 02:01:02
970.   Ken Arneson
Nate Silver prediction: Obama 52.3%, McCain 46.2%
Actual results so far: Obama 52.2%, McCain 46.6%.

The only state he missed is Indiana, which he called as a narrow loss for Obama, but ended up a narrow win. He called for 353 EV, but it looks like he'll end up at 364.

2008-11-05 03:18:31
971.   Eric Enders
Still 99%, Coleman up 639 votes.

Alaskans are freaking nuts and you can tell them I said so.

A fairly big upset appears about to happen in Oregon, which means three Udalls got elected to the Senate tonight. Which, along with the Prop 8 result, means the biggest winners in tonight's elections were... the Mormons.

Jim Martin in Georgia is about 17,000 votes shy of what he needs to force a runoff, with 99% reporting. Sounds like recount city there too.

2008-11-05 03:38:57
972.   Eric Enders
And Franken pulls ahead by 324 votes.

This is fun.

2008-11-05 03:43:15
973.   Eric Enders
According to the Minnesota Secretary of State's website, here are the results of the presidential election in the state.


2008-11-05 03:56:07
974.   Eric Enders
Well, the Alaska, Minnesota, and Georgia secretaries of state are getting pretty slow with the updates now. I guess I'd better get some sleep.
2008-11-05 07:38:25
975.   Bob Timmermann
"AP Uncalls Minnesota Senate Race"

Is uncall a real word?

Uncalled is a word, but not uncall.

2008-11-05 07:42:26
976.   D4P
It's still hard to believe that Bush could win twice and McCain couldn't win once.
2008-11-05 07:53:28
977.   Marty
One real exciting part of this is we've got a Democratic administration and a Democratic Congress and at least two seats on the Supreme Court that will need filling.
2008-11-05 08:12:07
978.   Eric Stephen
KJ is the new mayor of Sacramento. I didn't see any of his campaign, but if I were his manager I would only have one campaign commercial that would play over and over:

2008-11-05 08:25:22
979.   D4P
CNN has finally given IN to BO. Still waiting on NC and MO.
2008-11-05 08:37:51
980.   Jim Hitchcock
977 Marty, the part about the Supreme Court has always been the most salient to me.

You know, I was literally in a sandbox and in 1st grade when the news of Kennedy's assassination was announced. I haven't heard a political speech that rivaled his since then, until last night.

And the, well, moisture that welled up in my eyes when I first saw `President-Elect Barack Obama' on screen last night, they were real.

2008-11-05 08:38:30
981.   Bob Timmermann
MO is pretty likely to go to McCain from what I've read from news sources there. Missourians are bummed that they didn't pick the winner.
2008-11-05 08:46:35
982.   Bob Timmermann
And prostitution is still illegal in San Francisco.
2008-11-05 09:10:53
983.   Jim Hitchcock
983 But not in Nevada! That is, if you have an extra $1000.00 or so to spare.
2008-11-05 09:21:18
984.   Ghost of Carlos Perez
I get why you would be frustrated with the divisiveness caused by religeon, but I think "I can't stand religion" comes across at least as hateful as the anti-gay marriage folks are painted as being.

Certainly, there are expressions of religion that have caused people to do horrible things. On the other hand, I think that religion has also caused people to do a lot of wonderful things. Millions upon millions of people would tell you that their religion has helped them to be better, kinder, happier people.

2008-11-05 09:30:20
985.   Eric Stephen
Well said.
2008-11-05 09:36:22
986.   El Lay Dave
In the 2000 California elections, Proposition 22, since overturned, outlawed gay marriage with 61% of the vote. Eight years later, Proposition 8, making marriage constitutionally only between one man and one woman, passes with 52% of the vote. Only two sample points, but I think a indication of actual trend.

In the meantime, I am going to be pissed about all the tax dollars and court time that will be wasted as this issue is fought in the court system, perhaps to the federal level. Will it be irony if the Prop 8 backers who complain about judicial review overturning 2000's Prop 22 have in fact caused even more judicial review, perhaps even to the SCOTUS?

2008-11-05 09:37:56
987.   Tripon,0,2331815.story

Prop 8 passes with 52% of the vote.

2008-11-05 09:39:01
988.   D4P
Does Prop 8 passing mean that previous same-sex marriages in California are nullified...?
2008-11-05 09:39:31
989.   Tripon
988 That has to be decided by the courts.
2008-11-05 09:44:53
990.   Tripon
Prop 1A, 2, 3, 8, 9, 11. 12 were passed.

Voters were in a move to approve stuff, I guess.

2008-11-05 09:47:11
991.   KG16
951 - I was just talking State, a new federal constitutional convention would be fun. it would probably also mean that California gets to become an independent nation, which I kind of like the idea of, we'll even take Nevada, Arizona, Oregon, and Washington.

960 - i think most social programs should be at the state level. personally, i wouldn't mind seeing the federal department of education reduced to three attorneys at the department of justice who monitor civil rights act abuses. i'd prefer social security to be optional. i'm not opposed to a social safety net per se, nor am i opposed to regulation per se. I just don't think you should deincentivize work and/or self-reliance; but you also need to recognize that some people are going to fail and they shouldn't be left to die. my problem is generally that the federal government has overstepped its bounds through the aggregate principle in Wickard v Filburn (it's the second time i've mentioned that case, basically, the supreme court said that a farmer growing crops on his farm for use on his farm was part of interstate commerce because if every farmer did that, in the aggregate, it would have a profound effect on interstate commerce. i still blame FDR).

2008-11-05 09:50:28
992.   KG16
988 - probably not.

yes, it has to be decided by the courts, but i'm not sure who would have standing to challenge the marriages. the terrible scenario would be a married gay person is in critical condition and the family who would otherwise have the right to determine treatment disagrees with the spouse.

the other aspect is that marriage is a contract - there is an offer, acceptance, consideration, and performance. the federal constitution does not allow states to pass laws impairing the obligations of contracts. so, congratulations prop 8 supporters, you just made gay marriage a federal question. in the Ninth Circuit. some of us would call that poetic justice.

2008-11-05 09:52:00
993.   Ghost of Carlos Perez
I would guess that even the most staunch proponent of Proposition 8 believes that same-sex marriage will become widely accepted sooner or later. My impression of this proposition is that it is really only an effort to slow down the inevitable.
2008-11-05 10:15:12
994.   D4P
From the standpoint of "sin", which is worse:

1. Married gay people having sex with each other

2. Unmarried gay people having sex with each other

2008-11-05 10:18:40
995.   Jim Hitchcock
[994}] Dunno. WWJS?
2008-11-05 10:30:41
996.   Xeifrank
994. Let he who is w/o sin cast the first stone on that one.

As a general question, what rights within marriage do gay couples currently not have with domestic partnerships, civil unions, or whatever it was called before the SF judges started letting them get married? What rights are they missing? Health Insurance, tax benefits etc...?

vr, Xei

2008-11-05 10:36:07
997.   D4P
I don't know the answer to your question, but if civil unions/whatever really are no different from marriages, then why even have the debate in the first place? Why the need to ban gay marriage? Why distinguish between marriage and civil union?

If there's no difference between civil unions and marriages, then just call them marriages.

2008-11-05 10:42:28
998.   Jacob Burch
996 Currently none, but along with what 997 said, American history has shown "seperate but equal" kind of laws--even if its a matter of intangible, but significant, semantics--to not really work out that well.

Without the umbrella recognition and protection, it could allow for exceptions and exclusions in further litigation--adoption rights being the quickest to the chopping block, I'd guess. I don't want to sound like Chicken Little here--it's certainly possible nothing ever happens and they keep the mostly same 'tangible' rights. But it doesn't make it justice.

2008-11-05 10:44:16
999.   Xeifrank
997. I am not saying this is my belief, but if there is no difference then why even try to legalize gay marriages? My gut feeling is that there are a few differences between the two. Perhaps some middle ground could be met to put the additional things missing from marriage into domestic partnerships. I'm sure that's a contraversial idea, but it peels away a few layers of arguments from each side, and would expose any hidden agendas. vr, Xei
2008-11-05 10:48:19
1000.   D4P
if there is no difference then why even try to legalize gay marriages?

You have to put yourself in the shoes of those who are trying to legalize it. They presumably feel like they're being treated differently (i.e. being "discriminated" against), and want to be treated equally instead.

From their perspective, as 998 intimates, they are (understandably) suspicious that any kind of "separate but equal" designation is a covert attempt to actually treat them differently in practice.

Show/Hide Comments 1001-1050
2008-11-05 10:59:09
1001.   BlueMamma
Well, and from the standpoint of those opposing the legalization, they must see marriage as something more than a civil union, usually a sanction by their church, which (incidentally) does not sanction a homosexual relationship of any sort. Marriage and same-sex relations can't be reconciled in their minds and hearts.
2008-11-05 11:06:53
1002.   Xeifrank
1000. Yes, I see that argument. I just feel there is some common ground. I think if all gays really wanted were equal rights, defined by the access to the same things that M/F married couples have, then it could be worked out through domestic partnerships. Also, those running the campaign to defeat Measure 8 did a poor job. Their "in your face" attitude turned many people off to their cause, as did the SF judges that overruled Prop 22, and the Mayor of SF. I bet if a more tactful campaign was waged, beginning from when Prop 22 was overturned, that Prop 8 may have been defeated. It's all water under the bridge now. vr, Xei
2008-11-05 11:09:11
1003.   Branch Rickey
984 The argument that religion isn't bad because it does so much good is, IMO, missing the point. Nobody questions that much, maybe even most, good is done in the name of religion. But faith and reason are opposites and assault on reason is a danger with no boundaries. I think most people can see that extreme religious belief leads to wars. Like almost all of them. But most people think that "moderate" religious belief can't harm anyone. Tell that to gay people today. Tell that to people with AIDS in Africa because the US won't contribute to condom education and distribution.
In the end, moderate faith insulates the rights of more and more "extreme" faith (you can question anything in this society OTHER than people's religion). If we are supposed to look the other way as people accept that which goes in the face of reason, we as a society will continue to get unreasonable results including prop 8 and including nastier and nastier wars.
And there are two major differences between somebody like me who fervently disagrees with religion and someone who is religious disagreeing with me: 1) I would never attempt to take away their RIGHT to believe and 2) I could be swayed be reason. If Jesus pops up tomorrow and proves himself, I can be swayed. NOTHING will sway someone who admits their belief has nothing to do with reason.
2008-11-05 11:11:45
1004.   D4P
I think if all gays really wanted were equal rights, defined by the access to the same things that M/F married couples have

By I think the equal right that they want is the "right" to be married.

2008-11-05 11:15:27
1005.   BlueMamma
1003 "But faith and reason are opposites"

Well, I fervently disagree with this statement. Don't know who you've been talking to, but my faith and my reason go hand in hand.

2008-11-05 11:17:49
1006.   BlueMamma
1004 Have you seen The Life of Brian? You know that guy who keeps on about wanting the right to have a baby, and the other Pharisees make fun of him because he can't have a baby, he's got no uterus? But he insists on his right to want to have a baby...
2008-11-05 11:20:24
1007.   Branch Rickey
1005 Look up the very definitions:
Faith: "Belief that does not rest on logical proof or material evidence."

Reason: "The capacity for logical, rational, and analytic thought"

What is faith other than a belief that can't be proven? If it Can be proven, where is faith involved?

2008-11-05 11:21:09
1008.   Ghost of Carlos Perez
I think often faith is an excuse used to support doing unreasonable things, but saying "faith and reason are opposites" is way off, in my opinion.

There are a lot of very reasonable people who are religious, and their ability to reason supports their faith.

2008-11-05 11:24:46
1009.   Xeifrank
1004. Yes, that may be the case... but personally I don't see the problem with having M/F marriage with rights X,Y and Z and Domestic Partnerships (or whatever they are called) with rights X,Y and Z. They can even have their own Weddings, throw rice, smear cake in each others face, exchange rings etc... In the end they have the same rights and can even call themselves married for all I care. But it all takes place under the legal umbrella of domestic partnership. Call that bigotted if you'd like, but I think it's a good compromise and it's about as much as you will ever get from me. vr, Xei
2008-11-05 11:26:25
1010.   BlueMamma
1007 Just because they are not the same thing does not mean they are opposites. My faith rests on a fundamental belief that can't be proven, yes, but I find reasonable to assume, given the things I can observe in the world. Once I take that reasonable premise (that God exists), everything I believe is reasoned from there.
2008-11-05 11:26:37
1011.   Jim Hitchcock
999 One big reason is tax, insurance, and inheritance issues.
2008-11-05 11:27:46
1012.   Branch Rickey
1009. Would you accept that compromise for all Asians?
2008-11-05 11:27:58
1013.   Ghost of Carlos Perez
Maybe we're not talking about the same thing here. Are you using faith and religion to mean the same thing? Because faith has a lot to do with "reasonable" things, like science.

In my view, religion and reason, as well as science, for that matter, are all means by which we search for truth. All three have limitations, but I think they should lead us to the same place.

2008-11-05 11:29:49
1014.   D4P
That sounds an awful lot like one set of water fountains for one group of people and another set of water fountains for another group of people.

From what I can tell, the "sinful" aspect of gay marriage isn't the marriage per se, but the sex. But they're going to have sex whether they're married or not, so IMO being married doesn't add to the sin. In fact, being married might actually reduce sin by increasing the probability of monogamy (and thus decreasing the probability of promiscuity).

2008-11-05 11:36:34
1015.   KG16
1014 - and the government outlawing sinful activities ain't exactly something i can get behind. i rather enjoy my right to covet my neighbor's wife and his sports car. i also enjoy my right to recognize false idols.
2008-11-05 11:37:29
1016.   Ghost of Carlos Perez
What I think is interesting about this discussion is that many people, based on their religion, readily point out that homosexuality is sin. But really, the fundamental issue here, at least according to those same people's religion, is that all extramarital sexual relationships are sinful.

I think if Proposition 8 dealt with providing social acceptance to straight couples living outside of wedlock, the churches in favor of Proposition 8 would be equally supportive of the measure (though most of the public wouldn't care).

2008-11-05 11:37:53
1017.   Xeifrank
1012,1014. I am against gay marriage period. I am just trying to come up with a compromise. My compromise might not be very good, just shooting from the hip. If it reeks of the two seperate water fountain thing then forget it and the proponents of gay marriage in the state of California have themselves an uphill battle now.

Would the proponents rather have:
1. Domestic Partnerships with the same rights as M/F married couples.

2. Current Domestic Partnerships, which don't have all the same rights.

3. Niether 1 or 2, and a State Constitutional Amendment prohibiting gay marriages.

vr, Xei

2008-11-05 11:38:20
1018.   Branch Rickey
1010 I really think that 107 shows why they are opposites. You either believe in something due to reason or due to faith. Can't be both. We may be talking semantics... I believe the Dodgers will win next year though I can't prove it. But I have REASON to believe it. If I told you I have faith that Russell Martin will sprout wings and fly, you would not and should not respect my faith because it is unreasonable. I think you are saying you don't find your belief in God to be unreasonable to which I would say, fine... that's your call. But given the true meaning of faith, it is absolutely at odds with reason and I think that's an important point.
2008-11-05 11:38:37
1019.   D4P
There are plenty of sins that very few (if any) people seriously want to make illegal, such as greed, pride, lust, selfishness, gluttony, etc.
2008-11-05 11:38:51
1020.   Jacob Burch
they must see marriage as something more than a civil union, usually a sanction by their church...

No, it's just being on equal footing. Try telling all atheists, who don't give a care about a sanction from a church, that they no longer are considered to be married but in a civil partnership. Pretty sure, Hetero or not, they wouldn't be much too pleased.

2008-11-05 11:41:37
1021.   Eric Enders
"Welcome to California. Where we treat chickens humanely but not gay people."
2008-11-05 11:42:39
1022.   Ghost of Carlos Perez
14 , 15
I think the issue is that applying the term "marriage" to that kind of a relationship is a mockery of what a lot of people consider marriage to be. I don't think people care so much that other people are living in sin, and they don't view Proposition 8 as trying to outlaw the sinful activity.
2008-11-05 11:44:00
1023.   Jacob Burch
1018 Semantics is correct--I had this problem when talking about Maher's film. I ended up saying "Religion is irrational (IE, without ration) but not illogical (IE, against logic). I'm not happy with what I picked, as illogical still does mean more without logic than against, but it's the best I could come up with.

People who believe in God can equally believe in science/rational thought/etc. Just because they believe in something that is outside rational proof does not mean they're incapable of (in some cases) believing everything rational thought suggests.

2008-11-05 11:46:06
1024.   Jacob Burch
1022 And this is correct, although I don't subscribe to such a notion, I think this is what irks people more than the sin itself. The problem is, when they come to argue it, there's holes in every argument that could hold legal grounding. It ends up being "I think this is what something should be and I should get my way," though often argued as such, for obvious reason.
2008-11-05 11:47:09
1025.   Jim Hitchcock
1021 That would be a great bumper sticker.
2008-11-05 11:47:30
1026.   Ghost of Carlos Perez
I don't think anyone is trying to make gay sex (or extramarital straight sex) illegal either.
2008-11-05 11:49:36
1027.   Jacob Burch
1026 Not in this state, but sodomy still is a legal issue in other states, albeit a dying one. And not in this country, but there are country's with adultery laws. I assumed D4P was talking about people at large, and not just California.
2008-11-05 11:50:39
1028.   Ghost of Carlos Perez
What I meant was, that's not what Proposition 8 was about.
2008-11-05 11:51:17
1029.   Branch Rickey
1023 Hmmm... If I told you that I am rational in every part of my life accept for the fact that I am married to the Easter Bunny and she tells me the future, would you accept that I am guided by reason? I truly don't make the comparison to belittle, just to make the point that I think acceptance of religion as the ONE thing that we don't question. BTW, I don't think a belief in some form of God is necessarily outside of rational thought. Belief that he authored a book of rules he wants us to follow gets a little bit harder to call reasonable thought.
2008-11-05 11:55:45
1030.   Branch Rickey
1029... accept/except. Got it.
2008-11-05 11:59:36
1031.   Ghost of Carlos Perez
I think that is a particularly bad comparision.

I would argue that if you believe in God (that is, an all-powerful being who created the earth and everyone on it) but you don't believe he tries to communicate with people, you are being unreasonable.

The belief in God in the first place is harder to get to, in my opinion.

2008-11-05 12:00:32
1032.   Jacob Burch
1029 I know you didn't do it to belittle and, having done this argument too much, hold nothing against you for it (I like you too much in DT for that ;-)), but the Easter Bunny/Santa Claus/Boogie Man thing is seriously demeaning and juvenile, and I'd ask you try to not use it in any other fun debates you have with people. It's an easy credence tosser that I see otherwise smart people use, and would empower your argument so much more to avoid such silly statements.

Your latter points are all more or less correct, especially BTW, I don't think a belief in some form of God is necessarily outside of rational thought. But a lot of very smart religious people aren't so cut and dry, and often believe in a more unifying undying connection between a moral good which spurred things as organized religion, The Bible, etc etc. I won't get too heavy into the specifics, but it's true that if a person gets to a point, you can accept that a person who believes in a particular reason believes in an unreasonable thing (though opinion does way in here and I'd argue is very, very rarely cut and dry). What you cannot do is make that slippery leap of "Well, the person thinks the Bible is the word of God, guess he hates evolution, only listens to rational that the Bible would approve of,..." ad nausium.

2008-11-05 12:01:14
1033.   Ghost of Carlos Perez
I do think it is unreasonable to not question your religion, though.
2008-11-05 12:03:04
1034.   El Lay Dave
1017 Here's my somewhat off-the-cuff suggestion at a compromise. Eliminate the word "marriage" from all California state laws and the State Constitution (with one exception). In the relevant passages of the laws and the Constitution, use a different term such as "civil union" or "domestic partnership" with a clear definition that does not discriminate on the basis of sexual preference and does indicate that this legal relationship can be entered into via a religious ceremony of marriage or via legal "civil union" document filed with the state.
2008-11-05 12:05:32
1035.   Eric Enders
I think Branch's larger point stands, which is that while it's not necessarily unreasonable to believe that a god exists, it's not possible for a thinking, rational person to conclude with certainty that god hates gay marriage. That's something that a group of humans hate and have invented so-called religious doctrines to support.
2008-11-05 12:08:37
1036.   ToyCannon
I look forward to the 4th graders of the world being shown how 13,000 same sex marriages will be annulled and all those children who have been adopted into loving homes that what they had attempted to do because of love is an abomination to 52% of California's voters.

One day this country makes you smile and beam with pride, the next day it makes you wonder if they ever learned anything about historical discrimination. Discrimination is cool in the US as long as it does not involve myself. Where else can you be the victim and then several generations later inflict your own beliefs on someone's else's without any concern for what happened to your own people in the not to distant past.

Is this a great country or what?

2008-11-05 12:12:09
1037.   Branch Rickey
1031 It all depends on your definition of God. If you just call it "some power, beyond our understanding that creates some order to the universe", then it's not too hard to accept that it 1) exists and 2) it doesn't author books. The more narrowly you define it, the more you get into territory that is hard to reason.
1032 I truly don't mean to offend (I appreciate you at DT too!) but I disagree that it is totally silly. How else to make the point that unreasonable arguments should not be accepted because someone else has faith in them? Yes, I am making an insane example but not to compare--to point out that there are SOME beliefs that SHOULD be questioned.
And I make no such leap as you describe at the end of your post.
2008-11-05 12:14:28
1038.   Ghost of Carlos Perez
My problem with this whole line of discussion is that IF you accept most forms of Christianity (and there are certainly reasonable, thoughtful people who do), then you would be irrational not to believe that God hates gay marriage. The whole point of being Christian is that you accept the doctrine as being divine, NOT invented by humans.
2008-11-05 12:14:56
1039.   Humma Kavula
1036 What I'm trying to remember today is that last night proved for me -- as the man said -- that there's a battle outside, and it is ragin'. It'll soon shake your windows and rattle your walls.

He also said that the loser now will be later to win, and he was right about that, too.

2008-11-05 12:16:03
1040.   Jim Hitchcock
Weird coincidence. I just took a call from a guy named Scalia, and it turns out he's a second cousin of Antonin. I thought about asking for his cousin's P/N to get his opinion on the current subject, But I think I already know it.
2008-11-05 12:16:07
1041.   ToyCannon
As far as "faith" goes, much smarter people then myself have found a way to believe in some aspect of religion. I wish I was one of them. It is no fun to realize that human beings are no important in the scheme of things then the ants we step on daily. I understand why most of humanity clings to "faith" because if they didn't, they would have a hard time dealing with their mortality.

I think I was in 2nd grade when I said to myself what a bunch of malarkey. I've been on the outside looking in ever since. My experience has been that those who used to be with me have left for "faith" when they have lost loved ones. While not believing was good enough for them, it is not good enough when they need to believe their child didn't just die but went to a better place. I'm certainly not going to rain on that parade. Non-Believers should shut up. We have no idea how much of a crutch the believers need to make it through the day.

2008-11-05 12:18:12
1042.   Eric Enders
Somebody just sent me an article titled "Tim Robbins Shanked at Polling Place."

Talk about your misleading headlines.

2008-11-05 12:20:02
1043.   Humma Kavula
1041 Non-Believers should shut up.

As a non-believer, I agree.

But I would add: if non-believers should shut up, so should believers.

2008-11-05 12:20:26
1044.   D4P
IF you accept most forms of Christianity...then you would be irrational not to believe that God hates gay marriage

I'm not sure about that. As I said earlier, the "sin" is the sex, not the marriage. If two people of the same sex are having sex (or are not having sex), it doesn't seem to matter from a "sin" standpoint whether they're married or not.

On a related note, God doesn't seem to support the idea of forcing people to behave "righteously". On the contrary, He seems to want people to make those decisions for themselves, even though that means they will sometimes make the "wrong" choice.

2008-11-05 12:22:24
1045.   Branch Rickey
1035 Right. And my REAL issue is that as soon as it's accepted that the Bible (or the Koran or whatever religious book of rules) is the word of God and the playbook for entrance to heaven, THEN let the human interpretation begin. Results will often not be pretty. Shoot, follow it word for word and it won't be pretty. A reasonable belief in some unknown higher power is not so dangerous. The leap from there to an unquestioned belief that a rule book describes that powers will... that is where the trouble begins.
2008-11-05 12:22:37
1046.   D4P
We have no idea how much of a crutch the believers need to make it through the day

I would like to point out that "crutches" are good things, despite the fact that the words "crutch" in this context is usually used in a pejorative sense.

2008-11-05 12:23:50
1047.   Humma Kavula
1046 I think Toy used it in a positive sense.
2008-11-05 12:24:03
1048.   KG16
huh, looks like there's still 3-4 million ballots left to be counted in California, mainly absentee and provisional.

The difference right now, according the the Times is 434,821. that's tough to overcome with only 3-4 million to go, but still, it's close.

2008-11-05 12:25:10
1049.   D4P
I know, but it's usually used in a negative sense, which has never really sat well with me before because crutches are good. They help people.
2008-11-05 12:26:08
1050.   Branch Rickey
The fact that debate about fundamental truths might offend some is certainly not a reason to "shut up" about them.
Show/Hide Comments 1051-1100
2008-11-05 12:29:59
1051.   Ghost of Carlos Perez
I very much agree with your second point.

Again, I don't think Proposition 8 was about forcing people to be righteous.

2008-11-05 12:37:19
1052.   Andrew Shimmin
More people died in the last century in the name of atheistic ideologies than were put to the sword in the whole of human history in Ch-i's name. I don't think it's any better an argument to say their blood is on my hands than to say that dead of the Spanish Inquisition are on Bob's. Even though it's really fun to blame Bob for that. Really, really fun.

Ideas are dangerous. Even the ones that stem from naught but secularism.

Also, there's never been a single person who was totally rational and happy. Purity is overrated.

2008-11-05 13:06:28
1053.   El Lay Dave
I didn't expect a kind of Spanish Inquisition (comment).
2008-11-05 13:17:07
1054.   Jim Hitchcock
I'm starting to wonder if Ken Arneson is staring to think `What hath Ken Arneson wrought'?
2008-11-05 13:20:56
1055.   KG16
1053 - no one ever expects the spanish inquisition!
2008-11-05 13:24:22
1056.   Jacob Burch
1037 You could start by saying just what you said. No, it won't convince people who can't digest a simple statement (Yours being "ad populum is a logical fallacy, therefore a personal idea of God--or lack thereof--is no more right than something believed by a billion"), but nor does such a statement. It's silly because I can very easily prove what people think of as the Easter Bunny to not exist. You cannot easily do so for the majority of conceptions of God.

All the examples I gave had obvious connotations of "of COURSE they don't exist, and anyone that believes in them is a moron or has the mental capacity of a child," and I know you don't think that's the case for a large base of theists, so why use such a metaphor?

And I didn't mean to suggest you made that leap--just that the base of the argument sometimes leads there (hi, Bill Maher), and I wanted to quash it from the get go.

2008-11-05 13:29:43
1057.   El Lay Dave
1052 Ultimately, reason is all well and good when a complete set of relevant facts can be gathered, but once the realm of the unknown is entered, one must speculate on new facts in order to apply more reason. I think the set of what we humans as a whole know is far less than the set of what we don't know, and thus there must be many things for which reason alone will not supply me with answers.
2008-11-05 13:33:05
1058.   Jacob Burch
When I become president of the United States of DT, El Lay Dave is my chief of staff.
2008-11-05 13:33:16
1059.   Andrew Shimmin
By the way (and given that Ken's already been thanked for creating the forum) I think everybody should give me an atta-boy for not being more offensive and outrageous. Most of you people are pretty decent guys, but I'm kind of a jerk. It was a real accomplishment for me, not making this thread totally unbearable. I think that should be recognized.
2008-11-05 13:36:05
1060.   El Lay Dave
Our chief weapon is Andrew Shimmin's Pilot pens...Andrew Shimmin's Pilot pens and his pleated pants...his pleated pants and his Pilot pens.... Our two weapons are his pleated pants and his Pilot pens...and his ruthlessly efficient comments.... Our three weapons are his pleated pants, his Pilot pens, and his ruthlessly efficient comments...and an almost fanatical devotion to Ch-i.... Our Amongst our weapons.... Amongst our weaponry...are such elements as Andrew Shimmin's pleated pants, his Pilot pens .... I'll comment again.
2008-11-05 13:39:53
1061.   ToyCannon
It is only because most of us have met you and realized that you are innocuous. Your reputation would have been better served by staying invisible but you can do no harm here even if you tried. I used to wonder about you, now I give you no thought at all.

Sure glad this thread reached 1057 comments.

2008-11-05 13:41:17
1062.   El Lay Dave
1059 I offer you a comment full of references instead. Be satisfied.

1058 You should go with Shimmin instead. Realizing you're "kind of a jerk" is likely an important qualification for chief of staff. I'm still in denial about how big an asshole I can be.

2008-11-05 13:49:18
1063.   Jacob Burch
1061 You used to wonder if I had the destructive tendencies to become a president? Hmm, maybe I could use this...

1062 Shimmin also has pens and dresses the part. But I think this aligns him for either Chief of Staff so he can be a not-a-jerk or other countries, or Surgeon General so he can join the epic fashions of Janet Reno and C. Everett Koop.

2008-11-05 13:53:51
1064.   ToyCannon
Dang, that was meant for 1059 not you. It lost all of it's punch being directed at the wrong person.

You have been a revelation. I will not engage you in debate but if you ever run for office I would work for your campaign.

2008-11-05 13:55:12
1065.   ToyCannon
Aak and 1064 was meant for 1063 not 1062 . Okay to many high numbers for me. Bye
2008-11-05 14:01:09
1066.   Jacob Burch
With this much response, I feel like half of us should go Nate Silver and start a state of the nation blog.
2008-11-05 14:03:11
1067.   Branch Rickey
I can very easily prove what people think of as the Easter Bunny to not exist
Really? Prove that negative!

1057 You'll get no argument from me or most anyone on most of that point. But you don't call speculations facts until they qualify. Until then, you call them theories and you'd be very careful about living your life and making your most important decisions based on them.

1059 You've got me beat.

2008-11-05 14:03:20
1068.   Andrew Shimmin
Surgeon General is the awesomest job ever. No real responsibilities and no way of measuring accomplishments. Plus you get the snazzy uniform without having to do any pushups. I think sex education is a crock, too, so no worries there; if Ch-i had meant for kids to learn about sex from teachers, he wouldn't have invented older siblings, idiot friends, or the internet.

AG is more problematic. Sure, I never cheated on John Edwards's wife, so I'm qualified. But we already tried burning down Texan nutjobs' combines and nobody seemed that happy about it the first time. And without that, I'm not sure there's much in the job for me. Just not a good match, I don't think.

2008-11-05 14:08:00
1069.   Jacob Burch
1067 Not sure if I made a foible, but I think we both understand what the other is saying. If you try and not use the easter bunny line, I'm beyond content ;-).
2008-11-05 14:11:40
1070.   Branch Rickey
1069 Fair enough, You got it. =)
2008-11-05 14:13:51
1071.   Jacob Burch
Time to fly in on a giant jet and land on an air carrier!

Shimmin only gets the SG role if he successfully grows his facial hair ala Koop.

2008-11-05 14:13:52
1072.   Jim Hitchcock
Surgeon General is the awesomest job ever

Yes, but you may be called upon to answer the question "but can I do it just 'til I need glasses"?

2008-11-05 14:13:59
1073.   Xeifrank
People in my area have started asking for a boycott (discrimination) of all Mormon businesses in response for their staunch support of Prop 8. Perhaps it's just a few bad apples, but how could someone who supposedly believes so strong in not discriminating against one group, turn around and ask for people to discriminate against another group just because they didn't get their way. That's what I don't get about some of these liberal and politically correct people. They are all for tolerance unless you don't agree with exactly what they are pushing. vr, Xei
2008-11-05 14:18:10
1074.   Ken Arneson
1054 Well, I figured it would eventually devolve into people arguing the same points over and over again, which is pretty much what happens in most political discussions, and pretty much what's starting to happen now.

But I'm pleased it's been civil. So thank you all for not making me have to do any policing.

2008-11-05 14:23:49
1075.   Jacob Burch
1073 That's why you don't get probably less than .1% of the people who would actually participate in boycotting. There are going to be hypocritical, self-serving people no matter if they're liberal or 'politically correct.'
2008-11-05 14:24:03
1076.   Jim Hitchcock
1074 Thank you, Ken.

1073 It's just the Bill O'Reilly in all of us :)

But, joking aside, very true point.

2008-11-05 14:25:15
1077.   Jacob Burch
Not to mention one is tolerance and equality amongst public measures, another is an organized private decision, so they're completely not equatable.
2008-11-05 14:27:03
1078.   Jacob Burch
1077 Which is not to say I would ever support such a boycott or think it's a reasonable idea--but I don't think they're on the same playing field.

Wait, there wasn't a single comment needing deletion? That's pretty incredible.

2008-11-05 14:29:13
1079.   D4P
To clarify:

Your example of intolerance on the part of "liberal and politically correct people" is "Not spending money at Mormon businesses."

Your example of intolerance on the part of anti-gay marriage people is "denying gay people the ability to get married, something that non-gay people are allowed to do."

Is that accurate?

2008-11-05 14:29:50
1080.   Shaun P
This NYS native and current Massachusetts resident has to say, you folks in California have an interesting ballot initiative process. People out here were complaining because we had 3 questions. They might not have survived in CA.
2008-11-05 14:35:28
1081.   Humma Kavula
1073 Not that I would support such an agenda by any means, but I'll play devil's advocate.

If by "boycott of Mormon businesses" you mean businesses that happen to be owned by private citizens who happen to be Mormon, you're absolutely right. There's no possible excuse for that.

If by "boycott of Mormon businesses" you mean businesses wholly owned and operated by the church... well, as I say, I still wouldn't support that, but I can imagine that the argument goes like this... you patronize the business, the business takes the profits it generates off of your patronage and invests them in programs you disagree with. When you can follow a dollar from your wallet to the business to a yes-on-eight campaign, I can see how that would make somebody uncomfortable.

But like I say, that's a fool's game. Plenty of businesses -- famously, at one time, Wendy's restaurants and the Curves chain of gyms -- got a reputation for being owned by people who were outspoken about their support for causes I don't like, and generous in their support for those cuases. I still patronized the businesses (well, not Curves, but only because I is not a lady). As soon as you start going down that road, you find yourself wearing hemp clothes, and no one needs that.

2008-11-05 14:41:25
1082.   Xeifrank
1079. No, not accurate.
vr, Xei
2008-11-05 14:41:30
1083.   Daniel Zappala
I actually made it through the whole discussion, and I think 134 has it exactly right.
2008-11-05 14:42:56
1084.   Daniel Zappala
That should be 1034 . Now I better go check what 134 was about.
2008-11-05 14:44:00
1085.   Daniel Zappala
For the record, I strongly support the use of decongestants by both gays and straights.
2008-11-05 14:46:17
1086.   El Lay Dave
1073 "Major funding by Knights of Columbus, National Organization for Marriage California Committee and Focus on the Family."

While the LDS Church supported Prop 8 publicly, I would not support a boycott of "Mormon-owned" businesses - that is silly - and beyond that, doesn't even follow the money trail.

Guess I'll have to protest the next KofC track meet for Catholic schools though. :)

And I suppose there will more uncomfortable co-existence amongst the faithful at the Masses this Sunday, assuming there is still a sizable gay friendly or tolerant community in the local Catholic Church. There used to be.

2008-11-05 14:47:32
1087.   Jim Hitchcock
1085 Well, I use them as a sleeping aid (diphenhydramine hydrochloride), so do they really count as a decongestant?
2008-11-05 14:53:49
1088.   El Lay Dave
1061 Belated thank you.

1074 Very belated thank you. This has been a good topic to have.

2008-11-05 15:10:27
1089.   Humma Kavula
The ACLU is using Ken's argument as the basis of a suit fighting the implementation of Prop 8...

That is, since Prop 8 takes away a "protected Constitutional right" from one group (gay Californians) and not all Californians, that it represents too "radical" a shift to be made by a simple majority vote in the initiative process.

2008-11-05 15:17:46
1090.   KG16
1089 - as a lawyer, let me just say, awesome.
2008-11-05 15:18:28
1091.   Xeifrank
1089. Which fundamental right are they losing?
vr, Xei
2008-11-05 15:23:16
1092.   Xeifrank
1089. If that case is heard in SF, they probably have a good chance of winning. :)
vr, Xei
2008-11-05 15:25:48
1093.   Humma Kavula
1091 Not sure how to respond to that. I feel you're being sarcastic and not asking a genuine question.

But in case you're being serious, the answer, I believe, is equal protection. The argument is that changing the definition of marriage in this way changes the fundamental structure of the Constitution, and you can't do that with a simple majority in an initiative.

But I think you know what the argument is.

2008-11-05 15:27:29
1094.   Humma Kavula
I regret my tone in 1093.
2008-11-05 15:59:43
1095.   Ken Arneson
1091 In Loving vs. Virginia, a case that ended interracial marriage bans in 1967, the US Supreme Court ruled:

"Marriage is one of the 'basic civil rights of man,' fundamental to our very existence and survival.... To deny this fundamental freedom on so unsupportable a basis as the racial classifications embodied in these statutes, classifications so directly subversive of the principle of equality at the heart of the Fourteenth Amendment, is surely to deprive all the State's citizens of liberty without due process of law. The Fourteenth Amendment requires that the freedom of choice to marry not be restricted by invidious racial discrimination. Under our Constitution, the freedom to marry, or not marry, a person of another race resides with the individual and cannot be infringed by the State.


Is gender a fundamentally different classification from race in this context? That the freedom to marry does NOT exist, in the case of gender, with the individual but with the State?

I would certainly sue to make the Supreme Court decide whether it is or not.

I am in an interracial marriage. Without the above ruling, my marriage could have been, and in many states in 1967 was, illegal and/or invalid. The very thought that my marriage--my love for my wife--could be illegal offends me deeply.

Therefore, I don't blame gays for one second for not accepting a second-class union.

2008-11-05 16:07:16
1096.   Jim Hitchcock
1095 There was a movie made about that case. Something, maybe, all the people who are behind Prop 8 might want to see.

You know, just to see if they recognize themselves at all.

2008-11-05 16:08:29
1097.   Jacob Burch
1095 That said, I"m not exactly sure I'd be hopeful with such a case hitting the current Supreme Court's make-up.
2008-11-05 16:09:12
1098.   Jim Hitchcock
It was called `Mr & Mrs Loving', by the way, and I remember it as a powerfully moving film.
2008-11-05 16:12:59
1099.   Jacob Burch
It's still remarkable to me that I'm a semi-generation away from living in a time where Interracial marriage bans existed. Sort of sad and hope inspiring as well.
2008-11-05 16:33:52
1100.   Jim Hitchcock
1099 Like I said the other day, in '74 I was the only long haired white boy in an African American History class At Westchester High. A very good class, btw...I wonder if we covered that case?
Show/Hide Comments 1101-1150
2008-11-05 16:34:28
1101.   ToyCannon
In all seriousness was a Hispanic/Caucasian union considered an interracial marriage at the time or did you have to be darker then brown?

This needs to get settled by the Supreme Court once and for all. This is a constitutional issue that the states have no business dallying in.

2008-11-05 16:40:36
1102.   Jacob Burch
1101 There is state precedence (in New York, I believe) that would suggest the 14th wouldn't be enough to ensure protected rights--it would take more legislature. And once you get the Supreme Court to rule that such bans are hunky dorry (which it did on Interracial marriages a century before Loving), you really put yourself in a hole. I've spouted MLK's Letter and "Justice Delayed," and I firmly believe that, I just hope the timing of such a bold move produces the actual just result.

The problem from the New York ruling is that it argues a large historical precedence for M/F marriage, and while true on some fronts, it also doesn't take into account the stress on pro-creation and all together business-like nature of that historical precedence. We're so long gone from the dowry ways of marriage that a historical precedence should not be considered in a modern contextual ruling.

2008-11-05 16:40:42
1103.   Jim Hitchcock
1101 Apparently so, and also resolved in Loving v. Virginia:

2008-11-05 16:43:29
1104.   Jacob Burch
1101 But many anti-miscegenation laws were specifically White/Black, so there is some legal reason for a lack of others.
2008-11-05 16:46:34
1105.   Jacob Burch
1101 Also, keep in mind the times--in the 18th/19th century, Hispanics were probably still considered largely that--people from Hispania, a European/Roman territory and therefor Caucasian group, though anyone at all semi-native to south of the border likely could fall under Native American, which many of the laws did ban.
2008-11-05 16:50:16
1106.   Xeifrank
I think if somehow there could've been some kind of assurances that homosexual marriage/lifestyles weren't going to be taught in public schools, Prop 8 may not have passed. I'm not saying this is why I voted for it, I prefer to keep atleast some of my reasons private, but a neighbor of mine told me that he had "no problem with gays getting married, he just didn't want the stuff being taught in the schools". So that begs the question, would allowing homosexual marriages, but banning it from being taught in schools have been enough for the pro-homosexual folks?
vr, Xei
2008-11-05 16:55:27
1107.   Deuces Wild

The boycott/blackmail started with the Yes on 8 people. This story was broadcast on local news. A business owner was trying to support his employees by making a donation to a No on 8 fund and got the nasty letter.

Their threat:

"Were you to elect not to donate comparably, it would be a clear indication that you are in opposition to traditional marriage. You would leave us no other reasonable assumption. The names of any companies...that choose not to be published.

...We will contact you shortly to discuss your contribution."

2008-11-05 16:56:23
1108.   Jim Hitchcock
1106 Banning things from being taught never works, IMHO. See abstinence training.

And, respectfully, I think the term pro-homosexual could be better phrased :)

2008-11-05 16:59:41
1109.   Jacob Burch
Yeah, a banning of what gets taught is just warped. If you wanted to ensure that the community must approve of whatever is proactively taught in schools, sure you can have that because the california educational code already guarantees it.

I won't say I'd be happy with any initiative that purposely opposed teaching something so awful as tolerance, but if Parents what to ensure their public school attending kid wasn't taught, proactively, the wonders and acceptance in falling in love with someone with the same sex, go ahead I guess.

2008-11-05 17:06:33
1110.   Ken Arneson
1106 I think I said that earlier: if you explicitly state that (a) churches don't have to perform gay marriage ceremonies and (b) gay marriage won't be discussed in school, you could probably flip the vote.
2008-11-05 17:07:12
1111.   ToyCannon
How do you not teach it? If Darryl asks Nea why she has two mothers in front of the class what is a teacher supposed to do? Ignore the question or deal with it? Nothing gets accomplished from sweeping uncomfortable things under the carpet. At this point in our culture gay marriage is here to stay, no matter how much a % of the population tries to legislate against it. The only real question is how much and for how long will those who don't believe in it fight to keep it under the carpet instead of accepting it.

As Ken said this is the same fight that took place 40 years ago.

2008-11-05 17:12:08
1112.   Jacob Burch
1111 Like I sort of hinted at, I think the biggest fear (Though they likely fear any mentioning of it at public schools) Is the "Prince Marrying a Prince Propaganda," material designed for young kids to teach them, proactively, it's ok if you love another person of the same sex. Which I personally would advocate and hope to, without the lame sounding coloring book, teach my potential future family just as I would about any discrimination.

That said, I'd be ok with not guaranteeing such proactive material being taught in public schools, and let the appropriately designed educational code dictate when/if that gets integrated into the teachings.

2008-11-05 17:12:50
1113.   Jim Hitchcock
1110 BTW, Ken, it's been too long since I last told you that the Toaster really rocks!
2008-11-05 17:15:30
1114.   Jacob Burch
If a bill came on that did guarantee such teachings, I'd still vote for it, though I could also predict its defeat. A loss of such a clause would be enough of a sacrifice to guarantee the melting pot begins heat up to where it becomes an afterthought undeserving such litigation.

I think a lot of the conservative people view Gay Marriage like adultery these days--they don't necessarily care if it's legal or not, but don't tell my kids it's a good thing to do. A silly jump in reason, but I believe it exists.

2008-11-05 17:16:26
1115.   Jacob Burch
Oh and Ken, if you wanted an iPhone/Mobile friendly skin for the toaster, I may or may not already be using a duct tape hack on my server to provide such a service, and would gladly throw what I have at you. For what it's worth.
2008-11-05 17:23:08
1116.   Xeifrank
1111. I am just trying to come up with a way for the homosexual marriage to be legalized with backing of more than 50%, which was the threshold in the just finished vote. If you're a realist you should acknowledge that something like homosexual marriage probably isn't going to be accepted overnight. You can take baby or perhaps large steps and get 95% of the way there, or you can lose an election which puts in place a State Constitutional Amendment that will be very difficult to overturn even if it eventually makes it's way up to the SCOTUS in X number of years. Why not compromise enough that you will get a majority vote, then work on the other 5-10% afterwards? If I were part of the No On 8 crowd, and wanted to maximize my chances of winning, I would consider the idea of compromise, to atleast get my foot in the main part of my agenda passed. Now it's going to be a big struggle for them. Perhaps that's the way they wanted roll?
vr, Xei
2008-11-05 17:25:13
1117.   ToyCannon
Jon Stewart/Colbert really sucked last night.
2008-11-05 17:28:33
1118.   Branch Rickey
1116 Whether or not anyone would accept a compromise in order to gain ground seems like a somewhat moot discussion. People who wanted a no vote on 8 see it as pure discrimination. What if someone had said "if we ban slavery 11 months out of the year- then would you be happy?" or "we'll ban slavery as long as you don't teach that blacks are equal in school"... Maybe someone makes that step in order to gain the next. But don't expect anyone to approve it as a hypothetical and say they'd be happy with it.
2008-11-05 17:29:04
1119.   Branch Rickey
1117 agreed.
2008-11-05 17:31:24
1120.   Jacob Burch
Again, on these compromising statements--Letter from Birmingham Jail. There is a time to make a reasonable compromise, but when it comes to civil rights, there can be none.

I fully believe that if people had been better educated on what's already in the educational code and what's already been precedent on church's tax exempt status, 8 would have been nail-bitingly close if not defeated. This plus six-ten years (we're only 8 removed from an 61% victory) and it would get done. No compromising is needed.

2008-11-05 17:36:21
1121.   KG16
1101 - actually, the California case that struck down California's miscegenation law (Perez v Sharp) involved a Mexican-American woman (classified as "white" under California law at the time) and a black man. And California's miscegenation law included "Negroes, Mongolians, members of the Malay race, or mulattoes".
2008-11-05 17:36:35
1122.   Icaros
I'm in my 30s, and I knew all about the existence of homosexuality from early elementary school on. The teachers didn't talk about it; my fellow classmates did. Kids know and discuss all kinds of things their parents are unaware of.

How many people from my generation first learned about sex when it was taught in fifth grade? I'd seen Fast Times At Ridgemont High years before then. I can only imagine that kids today know even more adult subject matter than my peers and I did.

The teaching in schools argument is just an emotional red herring. In fact, we are probably better off having it taught in schools because what is taught on the playground is not always accurate.

2008-11-05 17:37:16
1123.   ToyCannon
We have so many gay people teaching our kids right now that to be worried about teaching the kids about gay marriage just strikes me as funny.
2008-11-05 17:40:28
1124.   KG16
1123 - and all because that damned commie pinko Ronald Reagan vetoed a bill banning gays from teaching in public schools. (sorry, my snarkiness is a bit out of control at the moment).
2008-11-05 17:41:19
1125.   ToyCannon
In 2nd grade I got in a fight with a classmate because I explained to him what his father was doing to his mother every night. I had 4 older brothers so I expect I knew more then the average 8 year old. Still it was funny how upset he got with the image.
2008-11-05 17:47:38
1126.   Icaros

There was always one kid in every class who knew all the dirty secrets. A classmate in junior high used to draw pornographic pictures all day. One time he drew an action shot of our history teacher, then he gave it to her as a gift.

2008-11-05 17:58:47
1127.   ToyCannon
That wasn't me, by junior high I was a shy kid. Stayed that way until I met Marla at 27 and she removed blushing from my bag of tricks.
2008-11-05 17:59:19
1128.   Ken Arneson
1115 It would be more productive if you took your duct tape and just tied everyone who releases a non-standards-compliant browser to a stake, and denied them their marriage rights and all the associated pleasures until they FIXED IT! FIX IT! FIX IT! FIX IT!

Anyhoo, I know how to fix it, I just have had the time.

2008-11-05 18:16:37
1129.   Jacob Burch
1128 Oh, nothing to fix really (well, there is the memory overload of what I assume is a few of the ad javascript), I meant a specifically designed "theme" more pleasant to mobile using dorks like myself.

I made it personally just so I could view DT while at Dodger Stadium, but Eric Stephen approves of it. To get it to work outside of baseball toaster I have to do a hefty amount of regex processing on my server, so I fear giving the URL to too many people, but I'd love to pass the joy along if desired.

2008-11-05 18:20:01
1130.   Andrew Shimmin
I went through the California public school system. I don't remember the marriage curriculum. It's possible there was one, but I'd be surprised. But, if it gets a foot in the door of school vouchers (so that people who want their children taught that the gays are defective can send them to schools that agree), hey! This is the sort of deal legislators could make with each other. If they weren't busy doing nothing like that, ever.

I don't really buy that the school thing is really the objection. It doesn't ring true. Aversion to homosexuality isn't really that complicated, is it?

2008-11-05 19:08:28
1131.   D4P
I went through the California public school system

How far...?

2008-11-05 19:13:11
1132.   Andrew Shimmin
1131- I quit in the seventh grade and forged the paperwork for the rest. But I can't imagine how that could be relevant.
2008-11-05 19:27:35
1133.   D4P
forged the paperwork

What kind of pen...?

2008-11-05 20:17:06
1134.   Marty
1118 Correct. I have dozens of gay friends, acquaintances and work mates. None of them get the compromise argument. Their rights are already compromised.
2008-11-05 20:54:50
1135.   Eric Stephen
I use it all the time on my iPhone (sorry if I'm overloading your server with traffic, Jacob). Jacob is indeed the man.
2008-11-06 07:11:37
1136.   D4P
FoxNews throwing Sarah Palin under the bus:

Shepard Smith: Now that the election is over, Carl, tell us more about those reports of infighting between Palin and McCain staffers.

Carl Cameron: I wish I could have told you more at the time but all of it was put off the record until after the election. There was great concern in the McCain campaign that Sarah Palin lack the degree of knowledgeability necessary to be a running mate, a vice president, and a heartbeat away from the presidency. We're told by folks that she didn't know what countries that were in NAFTA, the North American Free Trade Agreement, that being the Canada, the US, and Mexico. We're told she didn't understand that Africa was a continent rather than a country just in itself ... a whole host of questions that caused serious problems about her knowledgeability. She got very angry at staff, thought that she was mishandled.....was particularly angry about the way the Katie Couric interview went. She didn't accept preparation for that interview when the aides say that that was part of the problem. And that there were times that she was hard to control emotionally there's talk of temper tantrums at bad news clippings......

2008-11-06 15:54:36
1137.   ToyCannon
After reading Joe Posnanski's attempt at having a nice little Obama homage I'm more impressed with the people here on the toaster.

As much as it appears I disagree with Xei, he kept his comments at a level that invited discourse.

2008-11-06 20:44:48
1138.   Jacob Burch
1137 I was actually half serious in, at least some of these folk, writing politically on an online venue. I was floored with how awesome this went, especially (well, usually) when there was marginal disagreement. When two parties are so apart, you can't get much anywhere, but in the fringes I felt that some people truly may have learned, grown, either of their own opinion or the rational of others.

Two people (you here, one elsewhere) did get me to vote yes on 2, so...

2008-11-07 12:11:41
1139.   Jim Hitchcock
1138 It's because using the toaster is such a Zen experience...

Comment status: comments have been closed. Baseball Toaster is now out of business.